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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Sandringham 100m Lift race

Sandringham 100m Lift race

Who wins the 100m?

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Total Votes : 50

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1 Sandringham 100m Lift race on Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:59 am

Mex

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Moderator
Moderator
It has been a long winter but we have finally made it to the first event of the season. Last year we saw Camille run away with the metre bonus at Sandringham and a chance at making the Stawell Gift final. Unfortunately for him he was unable to progress to the main dance. Who are the main chances for the win and bonus? Great to see Tony O'Shea in the entry list.

2 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:44 pm

untouchables

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My Top 8

Rizzo

Rooke

Jones

Sonsini

Dunbar

Phelan

Kardakovski

Richards

3 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:10 pm

GLPR


rizzo
sonsini
burleigh
voumard
phelan
rosen
rogers
richards

winner: rizzo

4 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:52 pm

Bang bang


Rizzo, Repalaust, Vine, Richardson Minnett Rosen.
Winner Rosen (always seems to win early from Minnett who is low flying)

5 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:25 pm

Mex

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While the 300m is the Gift this weekend I am more interested in the final makeup of the 100m Lift race. Last season we saw a runner put a statement on their season by winning comfortably and then not appear at many events throughout the season before not making the Stawell final. Does someone else have visions of grandeur or will we see the emergence of a real contender this early in the season?

Matthew Rizzo 3m - 16% - Rizzo is quality. He showed his class in back to back seasons winning our most prestigious race to finish last year. He has come back 4m for winning and could probably consider himself a little lucky with that pull. What does it mean for this weekend? If he wins tomorrow he will turn up at Easter on a mark of 4.5m. He won comfortably by about 2 yards in the final so only has to improve another yard or two this season to be in the mix again. I can see him winning tomorrow or just testing himself before winning one of the other gifts before Christmas and walking away with a great shot at back to back wins at Stawell. Just how good is he?

Dion Paull 8m / Leigh Phelan 8m - 12% - Paull had a really good season a couple of years back and was very competitive before the New Year over 70m. I can see him having a big season and make a number of gift finals. I cannot see him taking a metre this early. One thing we know about his coach though is if he thinks his charge is a chance he will chase the bonus like Ware a couple of years back. Not sure if he will take this one, watch at Northcote. Phelan missed the Stawell Gift final last season by a yard. How does one come back from that at his age. There are not too many chances for older athletes to make the biggest final we have. A win would guarantee close to the limit at Stawell. Not yet for me.

Tim Rosen 11.25m / David Polichovski 12m - With respect to Polichovski there is no chance that the votes are for him. He will not beat the likes of Rosen off that mark. Rosen wont win this one. He will likely be in the mix for most of the final but I cannot see him wanting to take a small 100m race when he will win a gift later in the season. Good votes for him as he should be there abouts but not my winner. I think someone will take the bonus.

The VAL recording these races and sharing them with the public is a great initiative. I will be watching this final many times.

Good luck

6 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:02 pm

Baltimore Jack


Mex, your stats on Rizzo are wrong. Rizzo didnt go back 4 at all.
Rizzo won the Northcote 100 last year off 5.50, then won the Stawell Gift which he shit in. He should have gone back 3.5 in a 100, at best to 2.
Probably 1.75.
But he was given' 3 at Sandy. so he only went back 2.5 from his winning Northcote 100 mark. no wonder he won.
The Stawell mark 7.5 was only because of the Northcote win bonus.
His pre Stawell mark at Maryborough was 5.75. That should have been the mark he was penalised off. Not 7.5.
He really should be off 2.25 in a 120.
Now he has won, his Stawellmark should at best be 3.25
anymore than that and the handicapper has got it wrong.

7 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:45 pm

Mex

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I work off 120m marks not 100m marks. Winning the 2017 Stawell Gift from 7.5m and running today off the equivalent of 3.5m (3 divided by 5 and then multiplied by 6). To me that is 4m back from his win at Stawell (7.5 - 4 = 3.5) but I may be wrong, it has happened before.

How about we celebrate what was an impressive statement by Rizzo today. He has taken a metre bonus for winning and cannot run off less than 4.5m at Easter unless he runs inside the target time. Whether you like what mark he has or not that is what he should have now. Good luck to him as he tries to do what only Bill Howard has done before, win back to back Stawell gift finals.

8 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:22 pm

Baltimore Jack


Mex. That is not the rules. His bonus for winning Northcote only applies to Stawell 2017.
he shouldn't carry the benefit of the bonus into next season. His normal mark was 5.75 so that's the mark he has to come back from.
he was a certainty at Sandringham. there was nothing special about it. back only 2.5 in a 100? where was the penalty for winning Northcote?he just showed at sandy what he did at Stawell.
If he has got 4.5, most of those who got beat by 5 meters plus at Stawell may as well pack the season in. they've got no hope.
He ran 3rd at Maryborough off 5.75, if he gets 4.5, to be only back 1.25 from Maryborough it's a joke.

9 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:06 am

Kangaroota

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You are off your chops suggesting he is a shoe in for Stawell off 4.50m. Not many win from back there. He had 7.50m at Stawell and ran 12.10. He now has 4.50m for 2018 Stawell. He has to find 3m to run 12.10
Good luck Riz if you can find then extra.

Forget your rules argument as you are trying to quote for an established athlete of which Riz is not. The rules state on page 9 for OGA athletes;
“For all athletes classified as OGA in a specific event, the notional starting handicap is determined at the discretion of the VAL Handicapper based on consideration of the athlete’s best RPM over that or a similar distance, within or outside the VAL.”
“discretion of the VAL Handicapper” overrides all other rules with OGA athletes. Your calculations are irrelevant when quoting rules.

If he were an established athlete then the calculations are taken off his Stawell winning handicap and not Northcote or Maryborough. He had 2 runs at 12.10 off 7.50 therefore he comes back to a 4.25m notional start handicap to run 12.45 season start time. His 3m minimum penalty for winning Stawell is then applied so he would be off 1.25m.

Lucky Riz is OGA Laughing Laughing Laughing

10 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:46 am

El Chapo Guzman


Good logic Kanga - Rizzo has given himself a shot at 3 Easter finals in a row.
Good run from Morehouse for 2nd too. Surely a favourite to take the next metre bonus at Warnambool or Terang. Has won the Bool 100m a few years back.
You wouldn’t like to line up in a Stawell heat with Carl starting from 7.5m

11 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:52 am

Baltimore Jack


No wonder you call yourself Kangaroota, talk about jumping to conclusions. I NEVER SAID Rizzo was a shoe in for Stawell. You are off your rocker, because I never said that.
I said those guys who were smashed by Rizzo in one of the most one sided Stawell Gifts in history have no hope if he runs off 4.5. That's a fact. If he had 4.5 at Stawell this year he still beats 88% of the field. Only 17 athletes out of 151 got within 5 meters of Rizzo.
I don't understand how his 100 mark was 3.0 at Sandringham when he won Northcote off 5.5 and the Stawell Gift. Surely those two wins were worth more than just a 2.5 penalty in a 100?
Even for an OGA athlete that looks very generous.
I'm not criticising Rizzo, good on him for taking advantage of the situation.
I'm criticising a system that benefits some over others.

12 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:13 am

Kangaroota

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My bad BJ. I ASS U ME D you thought he was a shoe in.

I to think the system benefits some and not others. OGA are far more advantaged than is realised. Especially above average young runners without fast p.b's. They can come in on novice mark in any distance and win. Sometimes in pro running just as in life, things sometimes are just not fair Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad

Take the Riali to Rizzo comparrison. Riali was off 4.75m to Rizzo 7.50 on the start line at Stawell. A difference of 2.75m. Rizzo beats Riali at Stawell by about 2.00m. Riali start handicap this season is 2.75m to Rizzo 3.50m. A difference of 0.75m. So Rizzo goes back 2m when compared to Riali which accounts for the 2.00m victory at Stawell. Rizzo cops no win pull when compared to Riali for a 30k prizemoney differential.

I don't cop the 87% of the field has no chance logic. Too many variables. Many are not in their best form. Many are not yet handicapped to run 12.45 start time let alone 12.25 for Stawell time. Over time everyone good enough under 10m will get their chance.

Based on his 2017 Stawell runs, Rizzo off his 2018 3.50m start handicap is handicapped to run around 12.55 secs. He will have 4.50m at Stawell to run just under 12.45. He needs to find plenty.

13 Re: Sandringham 100m Lift race on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:34 pm

El Chapo Guzman


Yes lots meterage to find if aiming for an identical win.
Looking at Rizzo in each round yesterday, he definitely looks an improved runner regardless of times run.
Over the last 3 seasons he has an almost perfect resume for finals and wins - >
Sandy 100m 2017, Stawell Gift 2017, Rye 70m 2017, Maryborough Gift 3rd 2017, Northcote Gift 2016, Stawell Gift 5th 2016, Ararat Gift 2016, VRTA 70m 2015
What a great challenge to see further improvements in the next 5 months. Maybe we’ll see some more 70m appearances on top of maybe the Bay as well?
Accounting for the synthetic track yesterday, Matt could run approximately 12.35 from 4.5m at Stawell. Another metre improvement will get him into a final. Any more and he is sniffing the podium.

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