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PROTRACK » GENERAL » 2017 Stawell Gift Odds

2017 Stawell Gift Odds

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1 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:25 pm

The Master


Sportsbet have finally released some odds, Rizzo to start clear favourite at $4, Sonsini and Romanin follow at $8, followed by Riali, Camille & Moloney at $12

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/athletics/stawell-gift

2 Stawell gift odds on Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:47 pm

gofast


What about the Womens 120 nothing on that yet

3 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:53 pm

WhataboutmeMrHandicapper


Rizzo's a false favourite. Rizzo doesnt know it but he's the been played the stooge by the queenslanders. The mail is theres a better runner off a better mark on the goldie.

4 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:03 pm

Baltimore Jack


Sportsbet.com.au Odds today.
all runners $23 or less

$3 Matthew Rizzo 7.50
$4.50 Jayden Gilfillan 8.50
$7 Will Roberts 4.50
$9 Conor Loughnan 7.25
$9 Nathan Riali 4.75
$10 Daniel Sonsini 7.75
$13 Thomas Moloney 7.00
$14 Tjimarri Sanderson-Milera 3.75
$15 Liam Procaccino 7.25
$21 Bryce Teo 6.50
$21 Isaac Dunmall 4.00
$21 Jack Newman 7.00
$21 Jasper Nettlefold 6.50
$21 Lachlan Little 6.50
$21 Lachlan Sheffield 8.00
$21 Leigh Phelan 9.75
$21 Ryan Camille 9.75
$21 Ryan Mcnamara 5.75
$23 Aaron Leferink 6.50
$23 Luke Eckford 7.00
$23 Michael Voumard 10.00
$23 RYAN ILETT 6.50


UBET
current Wednesday 2.00pm
all $26 or less

$3.25 Matthew Rizzo 7.50
$5.00 Jayden Gilfillan 8.50
$7.50 Nathan Riali 4.75
$9.00 Conor Loughnan 7.25
$13.00 Will Roberts 4.50
$13.00 Daniel Sonsini 7.75
$17.00 Thomas Moloney 7.00
$21.00 Tjimarri Sanderson-Milera 3.75
$21.00 Liam Procaccino 7.25
$21.00 Jack Newman 7.00
$26.00 Lachlan Sheffield 8.00
$26.00 Ryan Camille 9.75
$26.00 Luke Eckford 7.00
$26.00 Michael Voumard 10.00
$26.00 RYAN ILETT 6.50
$26.00 Andrew Campbell 10.00
$26.00 Cam Dunbar 9.25
$26.00 Joshua-Clark Hollingsworth 7.00
$26.00 Mitchell Pateman 5.50
$26.00 Dion Paull 9.75
$26.00 Michael Romanin 4.75

5 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Wed Apr 12, 2017 3:44 pm

The Master


Women's Gift odds on the Stawell website

Toea Wisil – $3
Sophie Taylor – $5
Maddie Coates – $5
Mikayla Round – $6
Anna Duncan – $7

Fairly sure Anna Duncan should be Hannah Duncan..

http://www.stawellgift.com/2017/04/favourites-announced-for-2017-stawell-gift/

6 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:37 pm

chopper


RIZZO MATTHEW 7.5M 3.25
12.29 finalist off 8.0m at Stawell 2016. Finished 5th. Will final again on improvement winning Rye 70m. It is hard for non placegetter and going back in handicaps to win. But correct age and handicap
GILFILLAN JAYDEN 8.5M 5.00
11.10 and 22.60 (both a bit windy) gives this QLD good chance of final off this mark. SF 12.6 off 8.25m Stawell16. Handicap out but will need big improvement from last year. 6th in National Beach sprint title and won club title. Right age and handicap but prefer to see in heats
RIALI NATHAN 4.75M 7.50
10.71 in national Champs. Could not run Bendigo final (injury) but went quick. Probably had some injury concerns meaning he is coming good. From his national time. Progression out of SF would be good achievement with injury and handicap
LOUGHNAN CONOR 7.25M 9.00
12.4 SF off 7.25 Stawell 2016. Stonnington heat only time was 3m from winner. No other recent form. Very talented. Ran Semi Beach team relay and won semi. But Loughnan didn’t run final. ? why. Prefer to wait and see after heats
ROBERTS WILL 4.5M 13.00
18YO who ran 10.56 and 21.10 and under 18 yo to be Runner up national u20 100m and winner u20 200m. Quenbeyan 2nd 120m (5.75m) in 11.84 behind Ekford(12.75m) who won the Don Furness off 3.75m The BEST chance of the backmarkers. Gave the winner of the 100m U20 3m with 30 to go to just fail. Us old Pros say he should be off 3m. Very good chance if he runs
SONSINI DANIEL 7.75M 13.00
12.35 in heat Stawell last year off 7.5m before falling apart in the SF. Results this year been mixed 10.4 SF Stonnington to make final but fell apart in final. Prefer to see in heats and semis before declaring him as a winning chance
MOLONEY THOMAS 7.0M 17.00
Ballarat Gift 7th off 6.5m. Unplaced Bay Restricted final. Improved in later part of season but is inexperienced with not great early acceleration. Would surprise if finals.
NEWMAN JACK 7.0M 21.00
Twin runner up to the other twin in 2015 Quenbeyan gift. SF Bay Sheffield but looks tested. Ran out semis Quenbeyan2016 off 7.25m 12.62. Did not run Botany Bay. Stonnington 10.6 to not progress. 12.6 off 6.5m to not progress Stawell16. Looks tested to me. Been a fair while since middlemarker NSW troubled scorer at Stawell. Pym 2001 at 50/1 in 11.97!
PROCACCINO LIAM 7.25M 21.00
47.91 to just miss Nationals 400m final. Cant say that about too many on these handicaps. His 400m PB suggest 100m time of 10.9. Runner up SF last year off 8.5m in 12.5. So handicap is more testing. Finalist for me and top 3
SANDERSON-MILERA TJIMARRI 3.75M 21.00
Unlucky. 2nd last year 5.75m.12.15sec. PB in 100m this year. Ran mid 48 at National 400m titles. Good chance of another gift final but he wont win
CAMILLE RYAN 9.75M 26.00
Dual Stawell Gift finalist. Was off 9.75m in 2014. 3rd in SF bay Sheffield 2016. Broke SF Stonnington which cost him final berth. Prob finals at Stonnington but SF break. Chance for final. Unlikely winner
CAMPBELL ANDREW 10.0M 26.00
Runner up to the winner Stawell SF16 12.6. Beat Camille/Sclanders in heat. 12.5. Gone out 0.5m. Third Ballarat SF. Will need to improve to make final. Not the worse

DUNBAR CAM 9.25M 26.00
SF last 3 Stawell finishing 4th, 2nd and 3rd in SF. Close. Could it be this year. Not on his Ringwood 100m final run 10.6 in final off 6.5m nor 5th Ballarat Gift final. Another SF coming up
ECKFORD LUKE 7.0M 26.00
Wins 2016 Quenbeyen off 12.75 in 11.76 and the Don Furness of 3.75m at Avondale. The way he won that suggests he is a certain SF but would be a bizarre season if he makes final. I think the handicapper has got him myself
HOLLINGSWORTH JOSHUA-CLARK 7.0M 26.00
Only entered for the gift. Cant find form. So certain finalist
ILETT RYAN 6.5M 26.00
12.9 off 6m SF Ballarat. 2nd to Rizzo in SF last year 12.66 off same mark as this year. 10.4 to just miss final Stonnington. PB in 2011 10.67 would put him into this. Definite final chance
PATEMAN MITCHELL 5.5M 26.00
PB 10.84 from Brisbane this year. Don’t think any QLD athlete is getting a free ride this year. SF at best
PAULL DION 9.75M 26.00
12.5 in heat Stawell 2016 off 8.75. Won 400m backmarkers at Stawell in 2015. SF Ballarat Gift this year. Not enough good sprint form. SF chance at best
ROMANIN MICHAEL 4.75M 26.00
Winner Bendigo off 4.5m in 12.18. R/U Ballarat Gift. Very efficient runner. Be very unusual to win Bendigo/Stawell in a year (Has it been done). Not sure he has run Stawell before. SF
SHEFFIELD LACHLAN 8.0M 26.00
Bay Sheffield finalist off the same mark 8.0m. Has more than the average runners ability. Like the Bay could surprise. Not many VIC runs. Bronze in the Beach Team Relay championships so moving well.
ESCHEBACH TIM 7.0M 29.00
Finalist 2015 in 12.4 finished 6th off 6.75m. Long strider makes a few mistakes with his running form. Did not progress Botany Bay last weekend so will be running to get the 8.5m he needs
GILLSON RHYS 8.25M 29.00
12.6 off 8.25 at Ararat suggest he has a way to go. SF chance though tip is 12.45 for SF cutoff. Been in a few stewards reports recently but some indication may be injured. Watch for betting moves
GRUBNIC KYLE 7.0M 29.00
Won his heat last year in 12.57 off 7m. Not been seen much. Take on trust. Watch for heat run
LEFERINK AARON 6.5M 29.00
For the future. 22.03 for winning the U17 National title 200m and 4th in 100m in 11.01. Obviously talented. Cant have for winning this. Needs to develop further as the hill at Stawell is massive at age 16.
MATTHEWS BRENDAN 6.75M 29.00
12.30 to finish 3rd in Stawell15 off 6.75m. Did not run last year. Chance if right but nothing to recommend this season. 10.69 Stonnington heat (will need to find a fair bit from this) Has same mark so that is pretty cool
MOREHOUSE CARL 7.5M 29.00
Wins heat last year in 12.40 off 6.75m but missed semi injury. Stonnington average as was Ballarat but off 6.25m and finished 2nd in heat. Finalist on last years showing. Watch betting
PHELAN LEIGH 10.0M 29.00
10.20 off 8m to win Ringwood 100m 3 weeks back. 12.2 runner up bendigo off 9.75m. The old Brighton 100m gift you broke 10.2 you made the Stawell final. As he will do. But will be tested to go quicker than 12.2
TEO BRYCE 6.5M 29.00
Finalist a few years back. 5th 2011 off 6.75m in 12.5. Did not present last year to Stawell. From WA Good luck. Don’t think he is the best WA chance
TETAZ CHRISTOPHER 7.25M 29.00
Won Rye 70m restricted but not seen much since. Good time for restricted beating Maloney. Chance for SF. Final looks too big a jump in class
VOUMARD MICHAEL 10.0M 29.00
Last years Bill Howard winner so should be watched. Well beaten SF Stawell16 to Sanderson. Won Stonnington SF in 10.4. Scr Bendigo. 2nd frontmarker to Phelan. (Some chance Campbell, Phelan and Voumard make it off 10m Surely not!)
WOODGATE JAMES 6.5M 29.00
Previous junior hurdler. 10.70 PB for 100m but 10.98 this year. QLD. Would prefer to see. SF on best form
BEDFORD RYAN 3.5M 34.00
6th last year 12.33 off 4.0m. Back 0.5m (good handicapping – going back should be norm for major gift finals). PB with a tail this year 10.55 but not so good National 200m 21.70. SF but not final this year
CURRIE MATHEW 8.5M 34.00
QLD who is still a restricted runner. Broke down Stawell2016. No recent results I can find.
DELAHUNTY TIMOTHY 6.5M 34.00
SF Stawell 2016 off same mark 12.6. Bill Howard runner up. Handicapper has kept safe as has ability. 10.71 windy this year. Outside chance to final
DUNMALL ISAAC 4.0M 34.00
Winner last year 0ff 6.75m. Only loses 2.75 (runner up lost 2m. Bay Sheffield winner lost 3.0m!). Legal PB in 100m this year 10.68 and windy 21.63 200m suggest he is in good shape. Wont win. Chance of final
KARDAKOVSKI KRISTERFER 10.0M 34.00
Winner Ringwood 70 and runner up Phelan 100m Ringwood. 0.5 behind but meets Phelan .5 worse off. If Phelan finals this guy close. 4th ranked outmarker (Phelan and Voumard better)
KEAST MASON 9.75M 34.00
Runner up Ararat 120m Gift in handy time beating Brittain and Kardakovski. Trinity/Avondale Heights 70m winner. Out 1.0m from last years Stawell gift -not progressing. Must be related to handicapper at age 16.
LITTLE LACHLAN 6.5M 34.00
PB 10.99 in 2014. Suspect he would win the Stawell Gift long jump PB 7.60m But not here. So he is stuck here on this handicap.
MAH DOMINIC 6.0M 34.00
Young Sydney runner 1st look at Stawell. Finalist at Quenbeyan finished 3rd off 7 in 11.90. Some chance of SF and even F on that performance
MCNAMARA RYAN 5.75M 34.00
SCR last year Stawell. 6.75m in 2015 ran 12.5. Don’t think he runs smothly enough for me. SF
STEVENS LUKE 2.25M 34.00
Last run 2015. Off 2.25. SF in 12.4. Like the lighter number of runs he has had this year and very close to PB in 100m. 400m at Nationals not as good as last year. If in shape is good enough to be a chance. Best chance of the real backmarkers to final (along with W and RU Stawell16)
VI CHRIS 9.75M 34.00
Impressive win Yarra Ranges 100m. Less than impressive Bendigo gift heat off 8.75m. Goes out 1.0m. Good chance SF but not the final. Big hill at Stawell.
VINE JAMES 7.25M 34.00
12.08 to finish 3rd in 2013 off 8m. Kept safe at 7.25m. 12.98 SF Ballarat off 6.5m suggest handicapper letting him go. SF at best but 2018 favourite
WILLIAMSON JOSEPH 6.0M 34.00
Novice runner. Wont win off 6m
ATKINS RYAN 4.5M 41.00
Bay Sheff winner in 12.56 off 7.5m. Goes back MORE than last years Stawell winner. I can hear John McEnroe. Has ability so may SF. Bronze medal team relay Surf champs
BEE JOEL 1.5M 41.00
12.44 off 0.75 3 years back last run Stawell. Out 0.75 but times not quick enough this year. ?injured. Runner up Bay Sheffield 2016 semi to the years best handicapped runner. Cant have
BENNETT LEIGH 6.25M 41.00
PB 10.75 windy. Silver 51.21 in 400m National Hurdles titles. Big ask to come down and gets those legs going fast. SF at best. Pity not entered for 400m
BURLEIGH MATT 9.0M 41.00
Winner 300m Yarra Ranges but sprint form has not been as good. SF chance
HUNT HARRISON 6.0M 41.00
SA young runner. More known for 400m runner up Camden Classic. More chance in backmarkers 400m.
IMLAH ANDREW 5.5M 41.00
22.73 in National 200m makes it hard for this young runner to make enough ground to make SF
JOHNS WILL 4.0M 41.00
PB in 200m this year 20.95 would put him in this but not the greatest nationals 21.58 to be run out in heat. Cant have
KERR HARRISON 7.75M 41.00
Winner 400m Bendigo off a luxury mark for his age. Bay Sheffield finalist off a luxury mark for his age 9.5m. SF at best off 7.75
KING LEONARD 5.75M 41.00
22.49 for 200m to nearly equal his 2014 PB. Don’t have any other line through him. So watch for any betting moves
KIRK BEN 8.0M 41.00
Last year Bill Howard 100m 5th. Close enough at Bendigo Heat and Avondale 100m semi to suggest SF chance but wont final
KNIGHT TIM 6.0M 41.00
No easily found form. Always hard to have someone running 1st gift. Watch betting
MACGIBBON NICK 7.25M 41.00
12.4 off 6.75m at Euroa gift win suggests he is right in this. But looking at the run I don’t think there is much left. SF certain. Will need easy SF
MCDONALD GRANT 10.0M 41.00
Fined last year for not scratching in the 2016 gift. Good ploy if he wins this year
NEWMAN TOM 7.5M 41.00
Won Quenbeyan when he started near the finish line. Looks the goods running. Out .25m from SF last year. Expecting the same this year
BRITTAIN KEVIN 7.5M 51.00
2011 Stawell 6th in 12.4 off 7.25m. Pretty tough handicapping since so handicapper thinks he has ability. Ballarat SF but think he is SF at best
CALDOW JORDAN 2.25M 51.00
2 Bay Sheffs back to back so champ of the sport. Needs 4m. Runner up Beach Sprint Aussie title so he is in form. SF at best. Look for in the Backmarkers 120m
DESPARD JACOB 3.5M 51.00
Good junior won a few (very) good races. 12.8 last year off the same mark. Cant have
FILDES JACK 8.0M 51.00
12.8 last year Stawell off 8m. 17.21 PB for 150m and 7.44 for 60m suggests he is moving OK this year. SF chance. Like most QLD has been kept safe
FITZGERALD MICHAEL 6.5M 51.00
Only entered for the gift. Cant find form. A certainity in the old days! Not likely in 2017
GATES EDWARD 7.75M 51.00
12.90 off 7m last year to be well out of contention. Not shown enough to me this year to be considered
GRIMLEY CALEB 6.0M 51.00
QLD runner 11.38 in their schoolboys in late 2016. Would want to have come ahead in leaps and bounds
GROSS DAVID 10.0M 51.00
More chance to coach the womens winner than get out of his heat. Multiple Bay Sheff finalist and placegetter
HOSKINS DOMINIC 9.0M 51.00
Stonnington heat was slow and not shown much since. Prefer in something easier
JARVIS EVAN 8.5M 51.00
WA runner. Had Quenbeyan 2nd place when broke down so would have run 11.9 off 9m. 3rd Bay Sheff 2016 off 11m. Chance of final but cant see him wearing sash if recovered.
JONES BRADLEY 6.5M 51.00
Is he the old Socceroo goalkeeper. Otherwise no information. Only got 3m in the Restricted so if he is an non Victorian will have no hope in that nor this
MURRAY MATTHEW 8.25M 51.00
NSW runner. Ran out in SF Botany Bay last weekend off 8.5 in 110m. No time. Will struggle on that pedigree though Linford Christie and Cappo have won Botany Bay (presumably clean)
PERDRISAT JOSHUA 6.5M 51.00
21.78 National U20 200m finalist. And windy 11.18 100m PB. So chance for SF on that form
POLGLASE JASON 6.5M 51.00
NSW runner. SF Botany Bay off 6m. 11.45 the winner! (110m)4th bay Sheffield heat off 7m. With the state of the NSWAL it must be hard for the handicapper to draw a line on these guys. 6.5m seems tough.
ROOKE TIM 6.0M 51.00
Had 5m last year. Certainly has the talent to go close off 6m Bendigo 12.69 in heat so wont this year .
STEINHAUSER DANIEL 9.5M 51.00
Veteran status - Maryborugh gift winner in past.Out 0.5m on last year 4th in SF Stawell16 beating Houlihan,Wurm and T Newman. Chance for SF on that effort Slow Ballarat. SF chance
STEWART LAURENT 7.5M 51.00
PB 10.77 wins off this mark but alas for the near veteran 11.3 is 2017 best. SF at best
WATT DUNCAN 6.25M 51.00
Another hurdler. Cant have on PB.
WHITNEY LUKE 7.75M 51.00
Burnie Gift winner. 2005. Has run off less than 4m at Stawell 2 years ago. Give outside chance on best veteran form
ADAMS HAMISH 8.25M 67.00
Ability. Enters a lot. Scratches a lot .Bendigo U20 120m finalist. Still learning the craft. Good mark for age but wont progress to SF
ANDREWS SCOTT 6.5M 67.00
Coming from Perth with a PB this year 11.11. Mature athlete. Astute coach. If he comes give him chance of the final. Probably the best chance of those >50/1. Value bet
BELCHER TED 8.25M 67.00
12.80 at Stawell16 off 7.75m. From QLD (will not progress to SF)
HARGREAVES SHAUN 8.25M 67.00
10.5 Stonnington and probably a surprising lift from Stawell16 and Bendigo 7.75 scr. Will make SF on that and outside chance final
HILSON JAKE 6.25M 67.00
Young athlete PB 11.18. Good chance in 400m backmarkers. SF at best. 2019 favourite
HUBANA JOVAN 6.5M 67.00
13.4 off 6m at Ballarat in heat. Developing athlete
JAMES CALLUM 9.75M 67.00
Multiple 400m placing. Teases in the sprints. Has the mark to have a go. Prob a better chance in the 400m backmarkers. SF
KWENIN JOJO 5.5M 67.00
SF Bendigo off 5m. 12.64 off 6m last years Stawell gift SF. Not sure what he won to go back. Wont SF
LIVITSANOS NATHAN 8.5M 67.00
Not seen much this year. Scr Ararat Gift!. Be a very big shick to se him in SF
NETTLEFOLD JASPER 6.5M 67.00
Ballarat winner of 7.75m in 12.65. Gone back 1.25m. Has talent but I think (the handicapper has pulled him heaps) he is too far back. SF
NORRIS JACK 7.25M 67.00
3rd heat 2016 12.42 off 7.5m. Young SA with a win at Loxton 2017 off 8.m. Finalist Bendigo. Not yet an even time runner so will be in SF but not Final.
ROBINSON ANDREW 5.0M 67.00
12.01 off 7.25m to win the event suggests at his best good chance. Was 2013. Get on if he wins his heat in quick time off this mark
TIU JOSHUA 9.0M 67.00
Got the winner Bay Sheff 2016 in his heat off 9.75m. Did not progress beyond heat and did not break 13 Euroa. Wont see a Choo Tiu train here
WARE EDWARD 7.5M 67.00
Runner up 2011 0ff 10.25m, the 4th off 9.25m last year. How would you ever get a form line on this guy. Handicapper agrees back 1.75m. Look for in 2021
WOODHAMS DALE 7.5M 67.00
Plunged at 2016 Bay Sheffield but fwell short in SF . Previous runner up Stawell. Looked set for a few in SA but fell short. This no easier. SF at best but watch betting
WURM OLIVER 8.25M 67.00
12.7 off 8.0m Stawell16 SF. Well beaten heats Stonnington and Bendigo suggest he needs more time and the limit
ABERDEIN STUART 8.5M 81.00
Bendigo heat in 13.1. Has gotten a lift of 0.25m. Probably more chance in longer events
BAILEY JASON 9.5M 81.00
Mark is getting out but just not running well enough this year
BAKER COREY 6.5M 81.00
SF Ballarat. Coming from too far back on his times but has a PB this year of 11.18 Young runner
BROWNE SPENCER 5.5M 81.00
PB 10.75. Young runner progressing from juniors. Tough mark. 11.15 at Nationals. SF at best
DESMOND DARBY 6.0M 81.00
Novice runner. No form
FINEGAN GARY 5.5M 81.00
Not running quick enough to trouble the final from this mark. SF
GELERIS NOAH 7.5M 81.00
scratched last year from gift off 7.25m. 12.60 in 2015 off 7.25m suggests he has some ability but slow Ballarat gift heat. SF maybe
GORDON KIERAN 6.5M 81.00
23.57 late 2016 QLD. Be impressive to get this from there. You can watch him at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HVw92t5f_c
KELLY BROS 8.25M 81.00
Rye winner in 2013. Not enough form to suggest he is a chance here this year
MADEIRA BRENDAN 6.5M 81.00
Chance in the long jump and hurdles. No other form can recommend him here. Probably run in NSW but if he is from there will be handicapped out.
MAGREE NICK 10.0M 81.00
Not quite running well enough in gifts to trouble the really quick ones. Heat win possible
MOSS LIAM 5.5M 81.00
11.12 in Nationals. 12.7 off 6.5m to come 4th in Bay Sheffield. Back 1m from that. Good young runner but not that good to be pulled a metre for a 4th placing
PLANT RORY 8.75M 81.00
Most recent outing 6th in Ringwood 100m SF in 10.6 SF chance at outside
PUNCHIHEWA MAX 9.0M 81.00
12.8 off 8.5 last Stawell in heat. Not much good form elsewhere. Cant have
REPALUST NICHOLAS 5.75M 81.00
Stonnington gift winner. Hard to see him improving enough to win this year. SF. 2020 equal favourite
RICHARDSON DANIEL 8.75M 81.00
12.4 off 9m last year Stawell16. SF 10.7 Stonnington. Has ability. SF chance. 2020 equal favourite
TANCREDI PAUL 6.75M 81.00
Coming into form in the 400m and the only recently performed athlete to get a 400m backmarkers lift. Goes OK at this distance but not this year. 12.44 Heat win Stawell16. Bendigo heat 13.2 says no
TAYLOR LACHLAN 10.0M 81.00
Runner up heat Stawell16. Not quick at Bendigo. Be happy if you draw his heat
TAYLOR SHAUN 8.5M 81.00
Won 300m Yarra Ranges restricted. Needs to show more sprints to be considered.
TUCKER MITCHELL 8.0M 81.00
SA runner. Has mixed form this year. Has some ability. SF chance. Won PreBay 120m but look for more in 70m
VERRALL CONNOR 9.0M 81.00
Loxton Gift finalist 2017 and Bendigo Black Opal 400m 5th. More chance in the 400m backmarkers
VOORHAM STEFAN 7.0M 81.00
13.4 off 6m at Bendigo suggests this will be too classy for him
WHITTAKER JARROD 8.5M 81.00
SF off 8m last year 12.7. Not seen much this year. Don’t think he has the mark to do much damage. SF again
ABBOTT CALLUM 6.5M 101.00
Tas runner. Young and far better chance in the restricted (except the interstate runners really been given a hard time in the restricted handicapping)
AGBALETI KOFFI 9.75M 101.00
Restricted runner getting out in marks.Pretty unlikely
ARMOUR JACK 7.75M 101.00
Won Rye 400m and more of a chance in the backmarkers 400m. SF would surprise
BERTELLI THIBAUD 9.0M 101.00
Cant have still restricted runner
BOUDRIE ANDREW 7.5M 101.00
7m from winner at Euroa in SF. Don’t think he can do it. 400m more chance. SF at best
BROWN RICHARD 10.0M 101.00
Normally runns off mid 11's. Nothing I can find to suggest he will trouble SF here.
BYRT CALEB 7.0M 101.00
Has ability as has represent Australia a few years back. 400m in youth championships in 2009. Fair effort if makes SF with no recent form I can find (not looked that hard
CARTER MATT 3.5M 101.00
10.97 best 100m this year. PB 10.5. Makes it hard starting near the scoreboard. Ran 12.50 off 2m in 2015 to be in SF. SF Bendigo off 3m
CLARK BRANDON 7.5M 101.00
Tas runner will finish 3rd in the long jump.
DOUMAS NIKOLAS 8.0M 101.00
Restricted mark greater than gift mark. Wont be putting any money on Nik to progress to SF on Day 1
EDDY MATTHEW 8.0M 101.00
Stonnington 10.97 in heat. Heat Bendigo. Not this year.
ESCHEBACH JOSH 8.0M 101.00
Had 12 at Quenbeyan and didn’t break 13sec. Suggests this is too much for him during his development
GAMBETTA MATTHEW 7.0M 101.00
Would surprise if he progresses as I can find so little about him and he is mid 20s
GILMORE ADAM 6.0M 101.00
Novice runner. No chance of progression
HIGNETT MARK 10.0M101.00
Far way off at Bendigo off 11m. Needs weak heat to progress
HOWE JOHN 4.5M 101.00
Under 11.0 for the 100m and Burnie Gift winner. Policeman. Cant have
KNIGHT JACOB 7.5M 101.00
still a restricted runner suggesting he will be tested
LITRAS ANGELO 7.5M 101.00
Still eligible for u17 boys. Will not be in SF
PARROTT HUGH 6.0M 101.00
Young Vic decathlete here for the experience
PERRIN KYLE 6.5M 101.00
Suspect he is from NSW so handicapped to have little chance unless his uncle is andrew pym
REEVES DANIEL 10.0M 101.00
400m backmarkers finalist 2016. Not many athletes would win the Gift and entered for the 800m in the same meeting
ROTHE HAYDEN 8.75M 101.00
3rd Loxton 2017 off 9.25m. Won a gift. Times not been great. SF chance.Previos Stawell 500m winner so that would be a unique double
RYDER JAKE 10.0M 101.00
Young runner on big mark. Won maryborough 70m 2015. No recent good form hard to recommend

SCHUTZ BRADLEY 10.0M 101.00
SA runner now coming to veteran status. Won 400m backmarkers Stawell a few years ago. And will probably be leading with 109m to go
SOROCZYNSKI MATTHEW 7.0M 101.00
Mentioned early in season but not done much. Very unlikely
SQUIRE BAILEY 7.5M 101.00
Same mark in restricted suggests he will have trouble making SF
SULLIVAN SETH 7.0M 101.00
Junior u17. No chance of progression
TRONNOLONE JORDAN 9.0M 101.00
SA runner. Has good speed. Getting out in marks. Did not progress at Loxton. Possible SF chance at best.
VAN GELDER NICHOLAS 6.0M 101.00
Good long jumper. 11.26 PB 100m. Will be good for 70m and then the Stawell hill will get him
WHITTAKER DARREN 10.0M 101.00
Bendigo 4th off 12.25. Suggests he will run Stawell heat in 12.6. So outside SF chance
WILLIAMS MITCHELL SCRATCH MAN 101.00
not run at stawell for a while. Had 0 in 15, 1 in 16. back to 0 this year. PB from 2013 10.25. Cant have
ABDUL LEWIS 7.0M 126.00
Winner Loxton Gift 2016. Not shown much this season. Obvious talent. Has been kept safe by handicapper. SF
BULL MICHAEL 9.0M126.00
Not that impressive Stawell16 Gift. Cant have still restricted runner
COOPER JADE 6.5M 126.00
Slow Stonnington. Restricted runner. Will get good experience
DARTNALL JARRAD 10.0M 126.00
SF last years Stawell (drew easy heat). Won some good races but will be spectating on Monday
DODERICO JACK 9.25M 126.00
Winner 400m backmarkers last year at Stawell. One of the better outmarkers. Should be shorter 100/1.
GROUIOS SAMUEL 9.5M 126.00
13.5 off 9m in 2016 Bay Sheffield heats suggesting he has a way to go before troubling this field
HANNA MICHAEL 7.0M 126.00
too late at night cant find much about hi. Hope he enjoys running at Stawell
HOULEY GARETH 10.0M 126.00
has higher mark in restricted than gift. Would be major surprise to be in final
KIRSOPP CALLUM 8.0M 126.00
13.3 off 7.50m Stawell16. Massive improvement needed. Where is the evidence
LIZOGUBOFF MISHA 10.0M 126.00
SA runner coming into some form having won the 70m recently in SA. SF chance
PAAVOLA TOM 9.75M 126.00
More form over the longer distance. Hard to have on recent sprint results
SINGH BIKRAMJEET 10.0M 126.00
Has some ability but no recent form to recommend. Got run out in Stonnington heat
WILLIAMS COREY 10.OM 126.00
Experienced athlete but no wont get through
ANTROBUS SEAN 7.0M 151.00
Has 11m in the u17 boys here suggests it will be a fair effort if he beats one runner home in his gift heat. Good luck
BAILEY BLAKE 9.75M 151.00
Young runner gotten out quickly in the marks. Wont progress
CLOHESSY RYAN 10.0M 151.00
Will have a lot of runs at Stawell17 (entered 4 races) but only one in the gift
CRICHTON SIMON 10.0M 151.00
WA runner who has won in every state. Ran against me and Im old. I personally think there should be a special 12m old runners hcp for the gift. This should preclude them from the SF unless they win their heat and they go back to 10m for the SF
DIEGAN CHRIS 10.0M 151.00
has greater than 10m in normal running. Would be a major surpise to see him in SF
GREEN AIDAN 7.0M 151.00
He has more in the 70m than the gift and is u17. Later
GREENOUGH DOUG 8.5M 151.00
Ringwood 100m SF 10.7 and heat 10.7. Probably means he will find himself a few short this year. SF maybe
GRIFFIN TOM 8.5M151.00
Junior Still a restricted. Wont see him in SF
HOFFMAN RYAN 10.0M 151.00
Part of Stawell Gift history in 2010. We will test who is reading this. What history is Mr Hoffman part of. Prize for winner. No prize for Hoffman. Hint wont be in winning position near the gates
MORAN CHARLIE 9.75M 151.00
Needs to find 10m from Stonnington heats. Wont make SF
O'DWYER PETER 10.0M 151.00
Veteran VIC runner who has done just about everything in pro athletics - running and coaching. The physio will hope he runs
PERRY MATT 9.5M 151.00
Still eligble for restricted. Wont make SF. Needs too much improvement from Stawell16
SHARMA VIC 10.0M 151.00
Had 14.25 at Bendigo. You can have 10000/1
SPENCER ROBERT 9.0M
Euroa heat winner but 4m away in SF. Good mark for him but getting on. SF probably. Best long shot to make SF.

7 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:57 pm

Mex

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Moderator
Moderator
Will Roberts firms in the betting. With a PB of 10.56 in March I hope he declared his run. With that time he is handicapped to be under the 12.25 ceiling. No declaration could end up in an adjustment and a fine.

8 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:25 pm

chopper


From 13 to 5 with uBEt and 10 to 5 Sportsbet.
I think i was being generous with 3m in my guide. I think he is actually next to Evens at 2,25m
It is not the 10.56 but also the 21.10m. It will be a Pro travesity if an 18yo from Sydney (with no Stawell form - he did enter last year and got 5.5m) wins Stawell after having such disclosed form (presuming it has been disclosed) and gets handicapped as such. Watch his 100m run at Sydney against a slight head and see how he makes ground over the last 30m. Even his Quenbeyan 17 yo form off 5.75 to run 11.84 (electronic time) (watching the vision says he has come home very hard) with 4 months more maturity says he should have 3.5m on that alone.

9 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:33 pm

chopper


but if it has been disclosed and he gets 4.5m good luck to him.
Capo ran 21.01 in the National champs at the same age before being allocated 2.25m at Stawell a couple of weeks later

10 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:52 am

Frontie


He has to comeback to 2.5m off the back of that in my opinion otherwise he is set for 12.00. Shame he didn't declare that and they have accepted money on him

11 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:30 am

youngy

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Admin
Admin
Seriously those whinging about Wil Roberts.......pull your head in; You know very little about Stawell if you think a 17yo with a PB of 10.56sec on a synthetic track is going to smash out 12.00sec on grass at Stawell.

This is the Stawell Gift - there will be guys in sub 10.8 shape on 7m plus.

If a teenager like Roberts can overcome the odds - and that is a big 'If' - good luck to him.

Since Warren Edmondson won the Stawell Gift forty years ago (1977) off 1.25m, there have only been four winners from a mark less than 5.0m. All four were senior, experienced, international level athletes. Roberts has yet to prove he is in the class of these four.

2005 Josh Ross - scratch
2004 - Jason Hunte (4.25)
1990 Dean Capobianco (2.25)
1981 George McNeill (4.00)

12 years since an athlete has won from behind 5.0m. Doesn't that suggest how hard it is?

The odds are stacked against the blokes behind 5.0m because of the numerous athletes who work the system. At the moment it appears at least 3 athletes who have targeted minor races for the automatic lift are going to be in the final. That makes it hard for the guys who haven't won a minor race as they are effectively vying for one of the remaining 3 spots in the final.

I remember 30 years ago (1987), another 17yo - Mark Garner was allocated 4.0m. He had run some pretty a swift times in the amateurs and there was  a bit of whinging about he'd been thrown in. He ran 12.42sec in his heat and then 12.32sec to win his semi. He ran 3rd in the final (about 12.20) to Russell Elliott and probably would have finished 4th had Chris Start not broken down. Garner was already a national junior champion and had represented Australia in the 1986 World Juniors. He was at the Olympics in 1988. He had already achieved far more than Wil Roberts has at the same age. Yet he didn't run anywhere near 12.00sec.

There are 174 athletes in the field, of which only 15 are on less than 5.0m. Roberts has to concede a start to 160 athletes. If he overcomes them odds - he will be a very worthy winner.


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"Let's Go While We're Young"

12 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:17 am

Mex

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Moderator
Moderator
youngy wrote:Seriously those whinging about Wil Roberts.......pull your head in; You know very little about Stawell if you think a 17yo with a PB of 10.56sec on a synthetic track is going to smash out 12.00sec on grass at Stawell.

This is the Stawell Gift - there will be guys in sub 10.8 shape on 7m plus.

If a teenager like Roberts can overcome the odds - and that is a big 'If' - good luck to him.

Since Warren Edmondson won the Stawell Gift forty years ago (1977) off 1.25m, there have only been four winners from a mark less than 5.0m. All four were senior, experienced, international level athletes. Roberts has yet to prove he is in the class of these four.

2005 Josh Ross - scratch
2004 - Jason Hunte (4.25)
1990 Dean Capobianco (2.25)
1981 George McNeill (4.00)

12 years since an athlete has won from behind 5.0m. Doesn't that suggest how hard it is?

The odds are stacked against the blokes behind 5.0m because of the numerous athletes who work the system. At the moment it appears at least 3 athletes who have targeted minor races for the automatic lift are going to be in the final. That makes it hard for the guys who haven't won a minor race as they are effectively vying for one of the remaining 3 spots in the final.

I remember 30 years ago (1987), another 17yo - Mark Garner was allocated 4.0m. He had run some pretty a swift times in the amateurs and there was  a bit of whinging about he'd been thrown in. He ran 12.42sec in his heat and then 12.32sec to win his semi. He ran 3rd in the final (about 12.20) to Russell Elliott and probably would have finished 4th had Chris Start not broken down. Garner was already a national junior champion and had represented Australia in the 1986 World Juniors. He was at the Olympics in 1988. He had already achieved far more than Wil Roberts has at the same age. Yet he didn't run anywhere near 12.00sec.

There are 174 athletes in the field, of which only 15 are on less than 5.0m. Roberts has to concede a start to 160 athletes. If he overcomes them odds - he will be a very worthy winner.

I absolutely agree with you Youngy with lots of the above but no one else is handicapped under ceiling time in the gift. A pb is a pb and it must be declared and adjustments to handicaps implemented.

The argument about the bonus is mute as everyone was in the same boat. I do not agree with the bonus system but it is in place and well and truly advertised. Athletes who took a win have placed themselves in a great position to make a final. Anyone was welcome pick off a small gift and receive the same benefit.

13 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:39 am

youngy

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Admin
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Mmmmm- So they adjust his mark, to say 3.0m, and he's beaten in a semi in say 12.20 by a couple of metres? What's that achieve?

There are a number of gift marks I can't comprehend - athletes getting lifts without turning out. Athletes getting lifts above what the race they won suggested they should have got. I say good luck to them.

Other athletes allocated marks they've got absolutely no chance in hell of achieving the 'ceiling' time. There are anomalies and inconsistencies galore.

To target one athlete out of 174 and basically demand he gets pulled back is grossly unfair.

Will Roberts is already on a mark that history says is very difficult to win from. No teenager has ever won the Stawell Gift from a mark less than 6.75m in 136 years.

I have no problem at all with athletes targeting and winning minor races in order to acquire a lift for Stawell. I reckon it's one of the best innovations ever introduced. But to my mind they now have a decided advantage over the majority of the field. Eg: Anyone who ran in the Maryborough Gift against Matt Rizzo has absolutely no hope. Rizzo was 3rd in the final off 5.75m and goes up (1.75m) more than anyone else who ran at Maryborough. That's the way the system works and good luck to Rizzo, he's competed according to the system and earned his opportunity.

In my opinion, pulling Roberts back just makes it a lot easier for Rizzo (and a few others).

BTW, where does this 12.00sec estimated time come from? Off a 10.56sec for 100m on synthetic, that has him at 12.20 - add a metre (at least for the track) that puts him about 12.30.



Last edited by youngy on Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:30 am; edited 1 time in total


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14 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:29 am

ShaneMcK


Moderator
Moderator
Mex wrote:Will Roberts firms in the betting. With a PB of 10.56 in March I hope he declared his run. With that time he is handicapped to be under the 12.25 ceiling. No declaration could end up in an adjustment and a fine.

By my calculations, With Will running 10.56 +0.2 on 27th March, from 4.5m his p.b. could in fact earn himself a lift! In career best form, his adjusted forecast is 12.31.

My math is as follows;
120m less Handicap x 100m time = 1219.68 ÷ 100 = 12.20 (rounding)
Wind +0.2 (adjustment of 0.01) = 12.21
Track to grass allowance 0.1 Rating = 12.31

For him to achieve CP, his handicap could be adjusted up to 5.00m theoretically and mathematically speaking. To suggest he is pulled for demonstrating his best efforts are less than CP? Please...

From 5.00m his adjusted CP is 12.25

http://www.shanemckenzie.com

15 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:55 am

Baltimore Jack


MOVERS
Firmers
The big mover is Roberts on ubet in from $13 to $4.50. $10 to $5 sportsbet.
Some money for Nick MacGibbon from $26 now into $21 in sportsbet. Still $41 on ubet.
Proccacino backed in on ubet in from $21 to $17.
Voumard on ubet firmed into $21 from $26.

Easers
Rizzo eased out to $3.50 on ubet.
Gilfilan out to $5.50 on sportsbet from $4.50, and on ubet from $5 out to $7.
Moloney from $13 now out to $15 on sportsbet.

all others steady.

16 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:27 am

untouchables

avatar
My top six

Matthew Rizzo

Luke Eckford

Mason Keast

RYAN ILETT

Cam Dunbar

Rhys Gilson

Winner

Cam Dunbar

17 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:38 pm

Willo the Whisp

avatar
Shane,
correct assessment of Will Roberts.
10.56 on synthetic with +0.2 gives an rpm of (10.56 ÷ 100m) .1056. Add .1 for onversion from track gives him .1066. Add the marginal adjustment for assisting tail wind .01 gives him a rating of .1067.

His current handicap is 4.50m meaning he has to run 115.5m.

115.5 x rpm of .1067 = 12.32.

This means his national run pb does not break net time of 12.25m eaning he holds his mark and actually the handicapper had more scope of a further .75m beyond his current handicap and new rating.

He therefore keeps his mark of 4.5m even with a new pb.
He clearly is another contender and if he can improve again good luck to him from that difficult handicap.

Let the racing begin.....!!!
Nick Fiedler

18 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:51 pm

The Sheik

avatar
Baaaaaaah...... I love de common sense I'm exposing my eyes to on de forum today. affraid
Where there's a Will there's a sheik riding him home like a camel.
Goodo Mr.Nick. Tally-ho and let's go.

19 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:23 pm

Hey Hey

avatar
So many different variables.

Im going with Rpms and consistency, everyone can run one quick race, but the Semi Draw will be the key to making that final,
Rpms over the season always contain variables in conditions, grass tracks, where everyone is at.  If stawell is hard and fast such as bendigo, castlemaine, and ballarat, then those who were in the picture during those events are most likely to feature in the big one,
Those with QLD track pb's are inflated as its at least .2 quicker than vic, nationals were quick during the week but slow on the weekend,

Who is proven on grass, who can finish a race, and who might of found a couple, for me you can not stimulate race fitness and long breaks from running might play a big toll on the favorite. i will have him in my top 3, but im going with the italian Mafia this year

Top 3

Rizzo
Riali
Sonsini

Other Finalist
Roberts
Phelan
Romanin


Hey Hey,

20 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:50 pm

RuledByMyBrain


That 10.56 pb by Roberts was on one of the slowest synthetic tracks at Homebush.  If you look how much slower athletes run on that track relative to the their pbs, its quite significant.

21 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:37 pm

chopper


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cXFpaKLhls

Happy to be not identified on this forum but I think the handicapper has got this one wrong

I think Mex has got this correct he breaks the ceiling time by 0.12 and should go back accordingly
21.10 for the 200m (I liked him last year at 21.16 for the U18 schoolboys title)
But he does win pretty easily
SO he runs 9.48msec (average) for 200m
He has to run 115m (in comparing to 200m where he starts behind the line)
Is 12.13

1987 Mark Garner had 4m. Valerie BriscoHooks entered but didnt turn up. Narracort got 0.5m and he didnt come.The ultimate winner slipped over in the heats and ran 12.89 to still win his heat. Won semi and final. It was the first year the amos were allowed to run!!
garner PB at the time was 10.43 with a PLUS 4.2 and a 1986 World Junior 200m of 21.20 with a plus 06.
Roberts actually has a windy 21.04 (3.0) and a 21.10 +0.3.
If Garner had 4 Roberts gets 3.5 or 3.75

I think he is being gifted a final (might not win it granted) and I dont think it is correct (my opinion)

Cant see many others in the field being gifted a final at age 17-18

22 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:25 pm

justheshot


Interesting the way you guys convert Roberts 100 to 120

There is no question of averages

Take his 10.56 & add his flying 20m time subtract H Cap

10.56 +2.00 -0.45 equals 12.01

That is conservative as he prob runs 1.90 last 20

So on rubber its about 11.91

But I'm sure there are 10+ guys who've trialed sub 12

23 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:58 am

Trackstar

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Moderator
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Chopper. Will Roberts hasn't been "gifted" a final. 4.50 is not a 'gift' mark.
You are right, it's your opinion, but pushing for a re-handicap speaks more of self-interest and less about an impartial view.
Stawell history is full with anecdotes of athletes 'gifted' marks, only to be run out in a heat or semi.
Sounds to me there's a few athletes who feel entitled about Stawell and now worried that some kid threatens that entitlement.

24 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:03 am

Fast


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Yes I'm also surprised that so many think running 100m is the same a running 120m. They need to do some video analysis. The rpm calculations will always be quicker over 120m than 100m.

25 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Fri Apr 14, 2017 10:24 am

BG


If a 17 year old can win off 4.50m, the appropriate thing to do is tip your hat to him and say "Well done." Some say he's got too much, some say he could have more. The statisticians amongst us should therefore say his mark is perfect...

Whoever wins, there are going to be those who complain. If it's about somebody who has come out and shown that they can run fast, then it's probably time to have a look at yourself or put the cue in the rack.

26 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Fri Apr 14, 2017 9:32 pm

Sprinter101


RPM's to provide a reasonable estimate to predict an athletes time when the last part of the race is a fly and RPM includes the acceleration phase.

Formula to predicate time of handicap given 100m PB:

Using data from world class split times of athletes, an athletes fastest 10m is around 8.56% of their total time, meaning their last 10m would be around 9% of their total 100m time. Using Will Roberts 100m PB of 10.56 and his mark of 4.5m as and example:

10.56 x 0.09 = 0.9504
0.9504/10 = 0.09504
0.0954 x 15.5m (meters ran past 100m) = 1.47312
10.56 + 1.47312 = 12.03312

12.03 is Will Roberts predicted time off his mark on track so 0.1 - 0.2 can be added to account for conditions and grass.

Leaving Roberts with a predicted time of 12.13 - 12.23 off his handicap.

Given handicappers use rpm which puts him at 12.20 plus 0.1 for track to grass to grass conversion he is at 12.30 which is not under the ceiling of 12.25 and therefore he should keep his mark of 4.5m.

Good luck everyone.

27 Re: 2017 Stawell Gift Odds on Sun Apr 16, 2017 1:53 pm

Wispyboo


Sportsbet now have a market without Rizzo for those interested

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