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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Wisel in Women's Gift

Wisel in Women's Gift

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1 Wisel in Women's Gift on Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:38 am

justheshot


Looking at key Nationals form of the girls who run Pro's & Wisel is too well placed

Name Nat HC Need 1m
Wisel 11.4 Scr Scr Scr
Breen 11.6 Scr 2.00 1.00
Julia 12.0 3.75 7.00 4.75
Metiga12.2 5.50 7.00 6.50
Blizz'd 12.1 5.50 7.00 6.50

Clearly someone off
8.00 needs 12.00 100m pb
9.00 '' 12.10 ''
10.00 '' 12.20 ''
11.00 '' 12.30 ''

Think this is a case where the VAL needs to lift the rest of the Field 1m to make athletes at least competitive

Im finding it very difficult getting Julia Phillips to go to Stawell given she has raced Wisel 3 times over 100 this year losing by

ACT Summer Final 7.0m
Nationals Heat 4.5m
Nationals Semi 5.0m

Wisel smashed the field in the 1st half of Bay Sheff but didn't hold her speed

She caught Kiara Reddingius 4.5 by the 40m mark at Bay

But now Wisel is powering through races - 2m up on Ela Nelson to win the 200 - easier than her 100 - Ella has run 11.4 & 22.4

Wisel will smash Stawell if they don't raise rest of the field by 1.0m

2 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:08 am

Trackstar

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Moderator
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justheshot I think you underestimate the power that 40k has on girls and their coaches. out of 127 runners, there's many who have been set just for this and have improved shit loads since they last ran. Wisil won't win.

3 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:05 am

justheshot


maybe but she's run 11.40 on a slow track at Nationals = effectively beating 15 Nationally Qualified girls by 11M - well performed Pro Am's like Kitting? In her heat by 7m - backed up the 100 by winning the 200 by 2m over a 22.40 Olympian

as to finishing speed she ran just over 4sec flat on the last leg of the Relationship which is 120m & despite walking the 1St 20M ran the total trip in 13.76

figure she can go 13.40 off the peg on grass (13.20 on Rubber)
So a limit runner will need to go 12.20 100 speed

4 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:07 am

justheshot


Sorry autocorect changed Mettiga? to Kitting

5 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:09 am

justheshot


4sec for her last 40M of her 120M Relay Leg

6 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Fri Apr 07, 2017 9:37 am

ShaneMcK


Moderator
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@justheshot
Will you please explain your math? I do not understand how you got to 13.40 for grass. I've done the math on her 11.29 and have a rating at 13.55, then adjusting for the wind 13.65, then the 0.1 allowance for track to grass 13.75.
My math is as follows;
11.29 +2.0 (this was her run in Brisbane in February)
Handicap of Scratch 0.00m (120m) x 11.29/100 to give a rating of 13.55
Wind adjustment (as this is how the VAL Regulations determine handicaps) +2.0 (so halve the wind & divide by 10) (add on 0.10)
comes to 13.65.
Then allow the 0.10 track to grass allowance comes to 13.75.

I am not sure I agree with your assessment on time. Whilst I agree Wisil is in exceptional form and I believe will be a strong chance for the final and in the top 3, I do disagree with your time prediction.

I also disagree that the track at Nationals was slow.

http://www.shanemckenzie.com

7 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:54 am

Discobull

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Hey Shane, i agree with calculations, in regards to to track conditions at Nationals, the juniors and mid week sprinters got the best of conditions and track being slightly quicker. i think Syd new track not as quick as use to be, Brisbane / Canberra definitely .2 quicker at times, but Sydney on weekend 100m finals probs true to .05 slower than what we have seen.

The one thing Wisel can do now is run out the 120m, very strong over that in 200m, but it all depends on how track runners go on grass, if it wet as predicted on monday does it make harder for power runners over flight runners. Definitely looking forward too the Contest.

8 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Fri Apr 07, 2017 2:07 pm

Ribera

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Expert
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Based on Wisil's 11.40 and forgetting wind, this is approx. what handicap and amateur time you would need to be competitive.


Handicap ][ Performance ][ Predicted RAW time
0            ][   11.4         ][       13.68
1            ][  11.5          ][      13.685
2            ][   11.6         ][       13.688
3            ][   11.7         ][       13.689
4            ][   11.8         ][       13.688
5            ][   11.9         ][       13.685
6            ][   12.01       ][        13.6914
7            ][   12.11       ][         13.6843
8            ][   12.22       ][         13.6864
9            ][   12.33       ][      13.6863
10          ][    12.44      ][        13.684
11          ][    12.56      ][        13.6904

9 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Fri Apr 07, 2017 2:56 pm

FortySevenThirty


Don't worry about Wisilmania !! Get on the Discobulls Long Striding Goat........

10 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:13 am

cantrun


Ribera wrote:Based on Wisil's 11.40 and forgetting wind, this is approx. what handicap and amateur time you would need to be competitive.


Handicap ][ Performance ][ Predicted RAW time
0            ][   11.4         ][       13.68
1            ][  11.5          ][      13.685
2            ][   11.6         ][       13.688
3            ][   11.7         ][       13.689
4            ][   11.8         ][       13.688
5            ][   11.9         ][       13.685
6            ][   12.01       ][        13.6914
7            ][   12.11       ][         13.6843
8            ][   12.22       ][         13.6864
9            ][   12.33       ][      13.6863
10          ][    12.44      ][        13.684
11          ][    12.56      ][        13.6904

I think you are spot on Ribera, if you cant run those times then it will be next to impossible to win. Better off holding off and building it for a tilt next year.

11 Wisel in Women's Gift on Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:24 am

justheshot


Firstly your basing 13.40 odd off her 11.41
She beat Mel by a bit in Canberra 11.29 v 11.33
Secondly she has improved markedly beating Mel by about 2m at Nationals
Also at Nationals she won the 200 v a 22.40 runner also by about 2m
For the Trifecta she ran last flying 60m of her 120m Relay leg in 6.16 off my 4k camera set to 100fps
Over the last 60m Wisel picked up close to 5m v the girl who was in 2nd place off the bend
So with the 200 win & holding low 1.026 10m segments in the last 60 of the relay she has shown she can now finish
The Track was alos dead from a couple of days rain & the head winds substantial on the final day everyone seemed 2m off their best

Think the value bets are going to be Each way on smokies that can run 13.60-13.80

12 Re: Wisel in Women's Gift on Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:20 pm

untouchables

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I think the handicapper has a good balance through the field of 131 entries.
Compared with recent years, the backmarkers probably have the best chance to win.
But I do believe it is a very open race.

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