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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Stawell 3200m favourite emerges

Stawell 3200m favourite emerges

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1 Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:23 pm

DizzyRunner


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A new favourite puts their hand up.
Smashes the ceiling time.
And to think Tom was almost lost to the sport.

Event 29  Men 3000 Metre Run Under 18
=================================================================================
   Name                    Year Team                    Finals  Points Alternate
=================================================================================
Finals                                                                          
 1 Lightfoot, James          00 Old Scotch C           8:41.86                  
 2 Chilcott, Harvey          00 Tasmania              X8:43.24                  
 3 Williams, Sam             00 Wendouree At           8:43.53                  
 4 Walker, Tom               00 Wendouree At           8:53.53                  
 5 Anthony, Ethan            00 Mornington P           8:57.50                  
 6 Sellwood, Thomas          00 Box Hill Ath           9:08.56                  
 7 Phillips, Harrison        00 Mornington P           9:10.27                  
 8 Pickering, Jasper         00 Glenhuntly A           9:16.63                  
 9 Graham, Seamus            00 St Stephens            9:17.21

2 Re: Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:51 pm

Runforit


Doesn't he have to run 3200m, not 3000m?

3 Re: Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:51 am

Ribera

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He has not broken Ceiling Point time so no handicap pull.
Add the 8 secs for conversion to grass and that has him at 9.01.5. So for 3000m (off 200m in a 3200m) he has not broken the ceiling time of 9.00.
He ran off 190m at Ballarat so still has wriggle room for a 10m or 20m lift to 200/210m.
He is in the exact position every pro runner wants to be in. Whilst the majority of the field are handicapped to the start time (9.10 or worse), he has improved himself to close to his ceiling point.
He falls into exactly the same category as Michael Mara and improved himself but still not under ceiling time so no handicap pull.
Off 190m Tom he is rated at 9.03. Michael is rated at 9.01 from his p.b.
These 2 have panels on the rest but there is always someone lurking.
If an amateur with a p.b. of under 8.19 for 3000m enters Stawell then the field including these 2 will need to be lifted.

I hope both Michael and Tom go head to head at Ararat in the 2 mile. It has been declared only a 10m pull for a $1000 race.

Dizzy Runner get the word out to all your Dizzy friends to support Ararat. $1000 has been put up for both the 1600m and 3200m. It is time for the distance running community to back themselves and this event. No more whinging about lack of prizemoney.
The 3200m in particular needs strong numbers to save the event from extinction.

4 Re: Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:26 pm

BMara


Ribera , well said, I love it when someone makes sense.

Ararat are trying something that hasn't been tried in the VAL for over 35 years and that's to run a 1600m and 3200m on the same day. The 1600m has been programmed early, straight after the 70m heats, and the 3200m later in the day. The VAL website says 6pm, but speaking to Henry Gunstone from Ararat, it will be earlier.
As Ribera has stated, the Ararat money is good ( $1,000 each) and the handicap penalty is 5m and 10m respectively. Even if you don't think you are in the mix for Easter, it will be a good opportunity to test yourself out, and of course good training for the winter cross country........or for anyone silly enough to play footy.
And three runners, Sait, Mara and Sven are in line for the $500 bonus.

5 Re: Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:44 pm

Graeme Lebroy


From what I saw at Ballarat the biggest danger to that kids 2 mile mark is his penalty for winning the mile on Easter Saturday.

Hopefully Ararat isn't 35+ degrees so the distance runners can get 2 runs in.

6 Re: Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:02 pm

Hipster Doofus


Ribera wrote:He has not broken Ceiling Point time so no handicap pull.
Add the 8 secs for conversion to grass and that has him at 9.01.5. So for 3000m (off 200m in a 3200m) he has not broken the ceiling time of 9.00.
He ran off 190m at Ballarat so still has wriggle room for a 10m or 20m lift to 200/210m.
He is in the exact position every pro runner wants to be in. Whilst the majority of the field are handicapped to the start time (9.10 or worse), he has improved himself to close to his ceiling point.
He falls into exactly the same category as Michael Mara and improved himself but still not under ceiling time so no handicap pull.
Off 190m Tom he is rated at 9.03. Michael is rated at 9.01 from his p.b.
These 2 have panels on the rest but there is always someone lurking.
If an amateur with a p.b. of under 8.19 for 3000m enters Stawell then the field including these 2 will need to be lifted.

I hope both Michael and Tom go head to head at Ararat in the 2 mile. It has been declared only a 10m pull for a $1000 race.

Dizzy Runner get the word out to all your Dizzy friends to support Ararat. $1000 has been put up for both the 1600m and 3200m. It is time for the distance running community to back themselves and this event. No more whinging about lack of prizemoney.
The 3200m in particular needs strong numbers to save the event from extinction.

What the hell are you on about Ribera?

Enough of the PC and brown nosing, why don't you call it like you see it, you're one of the best judges around but you've gone soft.

Tom ran 8m53s on rubber in a pack,  at best he'll run 9m05s off his 190m, whilst with Mara you need to adjust from rubber to grass, has to run another 200m or thereabouts which will be his slowest 200m of the race and add to that he'll have to run his first 3 laps solo as opposed to in a pack, he'll run 9m08s at best.

Ribera, don't worry about asking Dizzy and his Dizzy mates to step up, they carry the distance ranks every other weekend only to then be used as the yard stick for the rest of the field.

Having made my predictions above, I'll need put a disclaimer against my comments as who knows what the current distance handicapper will do re handicaps for Easter Monday, he hands out lifts faster than Brendan Nottle hands out food vouchers down at Salvos HQ.

I look forward to your further commentary Ribera, no need to be fair and equitable, just say it as you see it, here's an example........ Dizzy take a chill pill and stop jumping at shadows!

7 Re: Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:42 am

Mushroom


Wow Hipster you are certainly shooting from the Hip.

I generally agree with what you have to say but think Ribera is closer to the rated times as such. Saying that the kid is still young so possibly room for improvement before Stawell and hence has that on Mara.

Even if you give them a bit of leeway of 10 seconds they should on form running low 9.10s which given other times this year takes out the other 2 winners who are still probably the next best on times at around 9.30s with pulls apart from Brooks at Warrnambool of 9.25 which you would suggest won't hold up at Stawell then your next fastest is Hartigan 9.31.

They have 20 seconds on the field and no one I have seen from the rest look to be running the low 9.10s needed to win unless as Ribera says a Amo comes in off a good mark.

Good luck to both as they are in form and if you are in top shape you deserve the opportunity, be a nice battle for 3rd I think.

8 Re: Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:57 am

Ribera

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Hipster you’ve been smoking too much of the whacky tobbacci if you truly think I am brown nosing. I have no vested interest in who the Stawell winner of this event will be. Hipster it seems you may.
I jumped to defend the position of a kid I have never heard of after Dizzy tried to throw him under the bus. Maybe your stable need to gag Dizzy. He always brings heat on to your stable.

It is irrelevant what either runner will run at Stawell.
It is irrelevant my opinion.
The calculations I listed are similar to what a knowledgeable handicapper would use.

Also, read my post again and you’ll see I was asking Dizzy to recruit his Dizzy friends to run at Ararat. I did not mention his stable. So don’t start the martyr thing for your stable re- we carry the sport etc... it gets boring. Your stable are the yard stick as they have won 13 of the last 14 3200 races. That is a truly great feat for the stable and well deserved.

Hipster be careful what you wish for but do you really want my non pc opinion? Best check with your stable first as the heat could turn up. (eg/ The event I think Mara will target. No not the 2 mile).

9 Re: Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:25 am

vicinsider




Hipster be careful what you wish for but do you really want my non pc opinion? Best check with your stable first as the heat could turn up. (eg/ The event I think Mara will target. No not the 2 mile).
[/quote]

Ribera - dont think you will have to worry about Mara at Stawell - by all reports with the long list of current injuries within the AFL boundary umpiring group - Mara will be required to double up over the Easter weekend and run two games for the AFL.

10 Re: Stawell 3200m favourite emerges on Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:32 am

Ribera

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You can rest easy Hipster and friends as I will not give my opinion in public. My accurate opinion seems to get me in trouble so I’ll PM you offline.

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