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PROTRACK » Polls » Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift

Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift

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Who will win the 2017 Women's Stawell Gift?

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Total Votes : 38

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31 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:30 am

sprint queen


This is my top 6 for the final

Kirsty Stevens  ( my pick as winner)
Toea Wisal
Mel Breen
Olivia Eaton
Angela Byrt
Maddison Coates

Others who will be very close to making the final too
Sophie Taylor
Mikayla Round
Angela Phillips

32 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Sat Apr 01, 2017 10:06 am

FortySevenThirty


Taea , Mcdonnell and Wyper are not entered so could be replaced with Eaton , De Salis and Brymer maybe.

33 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:15 am

untouchables

avatar
After the handicaps now released now my final is

Gross
Graf
Blizzard
Lane
Henderson
Ryan

and maybe the winner is Gross! and good luck to all


34 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:52 pm

Downesy


untouchables wrote:After the handicaps now released now my final is  

                                                             Gross
                                                             Graf
                                                             Blizzard
                                                             Lane
                                                             Henderson
                                                             Ryan

                                               and maybe the winner is Gross! and good luck to all

                                             
                                                             
Gross did her hammy at Nats I believe.

35 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:41 pm

Hubbaup


Correct call Downsey. Back to the drawing board Untouchables

36 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:36 pm

geton


Has POD done it again?? Is the Ella Squires at Nationals who ran 12.17 & also the same time as Sophie Taylor in the 200 today the same Ella Squires that has got herself out to 9.5m for Stawell?

37 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Sun Apr 02, 2017 7:09 pm

Hubbaup


geton wrote:Has POD done it again?? Is the Ella Squires at Nationals who ran 12.17 & also the same time as Sophie Taylor in the 200 today the same Ella Squires that has got herself out to 9.5m for Stawell?

No it's not Geton. One is Squires, One is Squire

38 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:21 pm

Slowcoach


geton.......the POD squad have the job ahead of them this year.

5 of the 13 lifts under 1m are from that squad  Surprised

The list of runners below have competed in at least 1 "major"  (Ballarat, Stonnington or Bendigo). The lift is from their most recent "major".

Anyone identify any stand outs (good or bad) from this list?

39 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:48 am

geton


Wisil gets all of them doesn't she?

40 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:51 am

Thatsthestats


Why would Graf be given a 2.25m lift ?

41 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:35 am

El Chapo Guzman


Graf was 4th off 4m in 13.91 @ Stawell.
Pulled to 1.5m.
Runs 2nd @ Sandy 100m in 11.91
Wins Daylesford Gift from inflated hcp.
No semis @ Castlemaine, Stonnington
Now on 3.75m - good chance for another final.

42 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:43 pm

Slowcoach


Hard to understand how Payne(1.75m), Hubbard (1.75m) and Byrt (1.25m) get big lifts after receiving NAP's at Bendigo, then others with inferior performances get less?

Having said that, they will probably need every bit to hold off Wisil and Co.

Unfortunately because of these inconsistent lifts, I think you can rule a line through many of the runners.

Anyone with a lift of 1m or less, apart from Taylor, Coates, Perry and Bailey, have basically been handicapped out of the event.

43 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:32 pm

Toolman


Does anybody rate Farmer a serious threat. I like her mark 7.75m and her run in the Juniors at Ballarat was fantastic. Similar RPM will place her in the 13.9's and a little improvement could see something in the 13.75 range. A strong finisher too so I don't see the uphill being a problem.Would that be a good enough time this year ?

44 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:52 pm

safrican

avatar
ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
Did the woman's gift get a lift based on the back marker? If so what was it?

45 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:33 pm

geton


Saw Farmer run at Ballarat & Stonnington Toolman. She's very, very impressive. Once up & going she moves very well. A real chance for mine. Wisil will be coming though......

46 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:57 pm

cantrun


I have a couple in front of Wisal still.

Keca off 7mt with a season pb of 12.00 has her at 13.61
Hobbs off 2.5mt with a season pb 11.57 has her at 13.59
Coates off 3 mt with a season pb of 11.62 has her at 13.65
All allowing the .10 track to grass.

47 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:14 pm

Slowcoach


Yep, Farmer is in my top 10. Another with a generous (1.75m) lift.

Safrican ........discretionary lifts given due to Wisil, anywhere from 0.5 to 3m (ref table above).

Does anyone know the rationale behind these varying lifts? Seems to make a mockery of the current handicaps if they need to be adjusted so widely??

48 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:26 pm

ShaneMcK


Moderator
Moderator
Cantrun,
Not sure about the info on Keca, although the time in November says 12.00, there was no wind indicated and the times are hand timed that day. The fastest that day was Catherine Mendes with 11.5h. The AV Shield portal has her ranked #1 with 11.43, again, no wind indicated. That was Round 6 Shield at Essendon. But the result conflicts as her next fastest Shield time by Mendes was only 12.29 after that. Vic Champs Mendes only ran 12.45. So with a few comparisons, I would not be including Keca in any predictions based on this information.

In Round 8 with a 1.4 headwind she runs 13.06. Other results are around 12.7 to 12.9. I feel there is an anomaly in the recorded time as the other results don't really stack up. Her best 200m time the week following is 25.54 puts her 100m rating around 12.6. Other 200m events around the time also have times over 26. There is also a more recent time of 12.73 in January as a 2017 best.

I also have Hobbs at 13.61 rating (adjusted for wind) then add 0.1 for track to grass puts her at 13.71
Coates too, after wind adjustment, on rating have her at 13.70 then add 0.1 for track to grass puts her 13.80.

Toolman,
I think Farmer for either 2017 Bay Sheff or 2018 Stawell. Another year should put her will and truly into the frame providing the right management.

Note: All the times I have predicted are adjusted for the wind. This is how the VAL Regulations are written to handicap using adjusted times.


_________________
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Shane McKenzie
W: www.speedclinic.com.au | F: www.facebook.com/SpeedClinicMelbourne |
T: twitter.com/ShaneMcKenzie | C: Athletics Australia iCoach Profile
http://www.shanemckenzie.com

49 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:25 pm

Hey Hey

avatar
hey hey, hobbs wont run, injured and pulled out of nationals

thanks

50 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:36 pm

FortySevenThirty


Slowcoach the finalists at Maryborough were told before the final that the winner would more then likely get that mark back by the end of the season so Farmer has got back to 6.5m plus 1.25m in effect. So fair enough in my book. Handicappers have made a bit of a statement with the runners that got a metre or less lift. He has made it hard for the POD runners that is for sure. If a POD runner wins again surely POD gets elevated to Genius Status. Backmarkers have been thrown into this race that is for sure, but that should provide a quality field for the final. But I'm 99% certain there is a Smokey out there. We just have to find her.

51 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:21 pm

eagleeye


Wisil to win off scratch comfortably

52 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:27 pm

JJones


I like the idea of discretionary handicapping before Stawell particularly for the majority of athletes who are a long way short of needing to worry about getting pulled if their PB means they might break ceiling time.

The notion is that handicapping discretion will even up the field so that, how does it go? ....."Each athlete is given a mark, or handicap, based on their ability, giving them an equal opportunity to triumph in their chosen event.", but with all the wondering about allocation of discretionary lifts, I thought I'd do a few calcs myself just to see what the finishing margins would be if athletes run to their recent performance/PB rate.

My results indicate a very wide margin; it's a bit depressing really except for the lucky few I'm afraid but good luck to those that based on PB and discretionary handicap seem to have a far better chance that most.

PS - I appreciate the calc is a bit rough ( no adj for wind etc), but at the end of the day it would be great to get an insight into how discretionary handicaps are applied.

53 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:01 pm

Fast


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
I think 3 in a row is as good as it gets, I just hope it's a close race, like last year, and it goes to a girl that supports the circuit and pro-running but I .. ….. can’t go past Wisil on current form and how she’s holding the back end of her races (grass is the only question mark).

It is quite evident that the established pro back and middle markers are well and truly out of it this year based on Wisil and Coates handicap and the target time for these athletes of under 13.7.

My view is these established regular pro-runners should be given at least their ceiling handicap plus a reasonable and consistent lift for the scratch marker (to run the target time with reference to their PB’s) but by all means be conservative with those who have no established winning performances or AA performances. Transparency here by the VAL would significantly increase the credibility of professional running.

My picks are – given that the target time for some is under 13.7 sec…Semi draws will be important.

1st - Wisil (scr, say 11.4 = handicapped to run 13.68 ). Should go better than 11.4….and will finish given 200m form. Flying speed at the end is about evens so should do better than 13.6. Most calculations have ignored her backend speed.

2nd - Coates (3m, say 11.7 = handicapped to run 13.68). Last 20m will be special but Wisil will have her early.

3rd - Taylor (5.75m, my guess 11.95 = therefore based on that handicapped to run 13.65) won’t finish as well as Coates and Wisil.

4th _ Lane- been there all season and with a peak will feature.

5th - Farmer- must be considered if she is set for this, have to include assuming she is.

6th – Breen (0.25m, say 11.45 = handicapped to run 13.72)…will run over the others at the end.

Had to limit it to 6 so left out ….. Bailey, Vernardos, Rauch.

Others -Gross (3.75m, say 11.8 = therefore handicapped to run 13.72) right in it if not injured.

Hobbs if she runs? Rumour has it she has scratched so I have left her out.

Are there any smokeys or frontmarkers capable of running sub 13.7??

Fighera is capable of running better than her recent form has shown and could be the smokey if set right?

What about…. Wells, Mittiga, Blizard?, Payne?, Stevens?, Graff?, Henderson?

....if it’s any other frontmarker then they won’t have any disclosed performances and given the precedent set last year, for a kid that did have disclosed winning form, that would be dangerous route to take.

It would be a good result if one of the girls that supports women’s pro running on a regular basis was able to upset but I can’t see it this year. The girls need to be encouraged to run the pro circuit weekly/regularly.

I will be quietly hoping its Coates, Taylor, Farmer, Payne or Blizard that gets there….all regular supports of the VAL and have winning form.

Dave Culbert and some will applaud if the backmarker wins but if they only enter one race a year is that what the VAL wants?

54 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:42 pm

Mex

avatar
Moderator
Moderator
I agree with Fast there that I would like to see a regular win the gift. It is great to have a backmarker entered but they should not be given the win.

55 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:08 pm

Hubbaup


Wisil
Coates
Graf
Eaton
Richards
Perry

Winner Eaton

56 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:33 pm

outtopasture


getting taylor wisil breen in my calculations. coates had a niggle a few weeks ago, is she fit?

57 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:43 pm

Thatsthestats


T Wisil
M Breen
M Coates
K Reddinghaus
T Perry
M Round

Backies to dominant. T Wisil to win it

58 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Fri Apr 14, 2017 9:18 pm

Slowcoach


In finishing order:
Coates
Wisil
Taylor
Ruach
Lane
Henderson

59 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Fri Apr 14, 2017 9:21 pm

geton


Any late scratchings?

60 Re: Easter Bunnies - Women's Stawell Gift on Fri Apr 14, 2017 9:24 pm

Thatsthestats


Hobbs Farmer Williams notable scratchings that I can remember Geton

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