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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances

Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances

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31 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:31 pm

Whispers


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Baird had .25 extra last year and Cibich put him away pretty easy in the semi.
It would be good if someone can put up marks from last season in comparison to this season, I am sure you will find that Baird will meet a lot of the others worse off even Cibich and Houlihan who both made the final.
I think that the handicapper has got it pretty right cheers

32 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:47 am

Admin

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Name-2015 Mark- 2016 Mark- Diff 2015 to 2016
Evan Jarvis 10.00 11.00 1.00
Lachlan Taylor 10.00 11.00 1.00
Tim Rooke 4.75 5.75 1.00
Hayden Petherick 10.00 11.00 1.00
James Bayliss 7.00 8.00 1.00
Kevin Brittain 7.00 7.75 0.75
Michael Dotti 10.50 11.00 0.50
Wallace Long-Scafidi 4.00 4.50 0.50
Brodie Jackson 7.00 7.50 0.50
Sean Law 9.25 9.75 0.50
Damian Tohl 8.50 8.75 0.25
Luke Houlihan 5.50 5.75 0.25
Josh Tiu 9.50 9.75 0.25
Mitchell Tucker 8.00 8.25 0.25
Dale Woodhams 7.00 7.25 0.25
Ollie Wurm 8.50 8.75 0.25
Lyall Weir 9.25 9.5 0.25
Thomas Newman 8.50 8.50 0.00
David Gross 9.25 9.25 0.00
James Cibich 7.00 7.00 0.00
Jack Newman 7.50 7.50 0.00
Daniel Richardson 9.00 9.00 0.00
Dion Paull 9.00 9.00 0.00
Frankie Schinella 7.00 7.00 0.00
Connor Verrall 9.00 9.00 0.00
Joel Bee 2.00 2.00 0.00
Ryan Atkins 7.50 7.50 0.00
Glenn Ross 11.00 11.00 0.00
Jarrad Dartnall 11.00 11.00 0.00
Michael Voumard 10.00 10.00 0.00
Nickolas Berry 11.00 11.00 0.00
Darren Whittaker 11.00 11.00 0.00
Paul Taylor 11.00 11.00 0.00
Simon Crichton 11.00 11.00 0.00
Misha Lizoguboff 10.00 10.00 0.00
Lawrence Coop 11.00 11.00 0.00
Samuel Grouios 9.00 9.00 0.00
Michael Brusnahan 7.00 7.00 0.00
Brian Wilson 7.25 7.25 0.00
Kyle Roberts 8.00 8.00 0.00
Ben Hardy 11.00 11.00 0.00
Brad Schutz 11.00 11.00 0.00
Rupert Lugo 11.00 11.00 0.00
Liam Wright 10.25 10.25 0.00
Ryan Hancock 11.00 10.75 -0.25
Sebastian Baird 8.00 7.75 -0.25
Stuart Rooke 8.50 8.25 -0.25
Clay Watkins 3.25 2.75 -0.50
Oliver Callahan 8.50 7.75 -0.75
Tim Johnson 11.00 10.25 -0.75
Lewis Abdul 8.25 7.00 -1.25
Dylan Panizza 9.00 7.25 -1.75
Sam Osmond 9.50 6.50 -3.00



Last edited by Admin on Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:14 pm; edited 1 time in total

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33 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:29 pm

Whispers


ProTrack Star
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Thanks for that Admin.
So going by that, he only meets about 5 athletes better off than last season and he didnt make the final.
Good on him if hes gone away and improved as he needed to.
Like I said before he hasnt been gifted a position in the final but has been well handicapped.

34 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:13 pm

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Comparison of marks from 2015 to 2016 with time recorded in the 2015 heat. Then based on the MPS (metres per second) for the 2015 result, what the athlete is estimated to run off their 2016 handicap.

Name2015 Mark2015 Time2016 Mark2015 MPSEst. 2016 TimeDiff 2015 to 2016
Dylan Panizza9.0012.4027.258.95012.60-1.75
Thomas Newman8.5012.6298.508.82912.630.00
Damian Tohl8.5012.6738.758.79812.640.25
David Gross9.2512.6549.258.75212.650.00
James Cibich7.0012.6587.008.92712.660.00
Ryan Hancock11.0012.63110.758.63012.66-0.25
Luke Houlihan5.5012.7415.758.98712.710.25
Josh Tiu9.5012.7469.758.66912.720.25
Jack Newman7.5012.7367.508.83312.740.00
Daniel Richardson9.0012.7609.008.69912.760.00
Tim Johnson11.0012.7810.258.52912.78-0.75
Sebastian Baird8.0012.7537.758.78212.78-0.25
Kevin Brittain7.0012.8757.758.77712.790.75
Evan Jarvis10.0012.95411.008.49212.841.00
Clay Watkins3.2512.7952.759.12512.85-0.50
Dion Paull9.0012.8619.008.63112.860.00
Frankie Schinella7.0012.8637.008.78512.860.00
Connor Verrall9.0012.8899.008.61212.890.00
Liam Wright10.2512.97810.258.45712.890.00
Joel Bee2.0012.9032.009.14512.900.00
Sam Osmond9.5012.5686.508.79212.91-3.00
Mitchell Tucker8.0012.9538.258.64712.920.25
Michael Dotti10.5012.99811.008.42412.940.50
Wallace Long-Scafidi4.0013.0084.508.91812.950.50
Oliver Callahan8.5012.8687.758.66512.95-0.75
Lachlan Taylor10.0013.11111.008.39012.991.00
Ryan Atkins7.5012.9957.508.65713.000.00
Glenn Ross11.0013.04111.008.35813.040.00
Tim Rooke4.7513.1685.758.75213.051.00
Dale Woodhams7.0013.0907.258.63313.060.25
Lewis Abdul8.2512.9347.008.64013.08-1.25
Jarrad Dartnall11.0013.10011.008.32113.100.00
Michael Voumard10.0013.13210.008.37613.130.00
Nickolas Berry11.0013.24511.008.23013.250.00
Darren Whittaker11.0013.25111.008.22613.250.00
Brodie Jackson7.0013.3137.508.48813.250.50
Paul Taylor11.0013.29711.008.19713.300.00
Simon Crichton11.0013.30211.008.19413.300.00
Misha Lizoguboff10.0013.65210.008.05713.650.00
Lawrence Coop11.0013.66511.007.97713.670.00
Samuel Grouios9.0014.0099.007.92314.010.00
Hayden Petherick10.0014.67211.007.49714.541.00
James Bayliss7.00Scr8.001.00
Michael Brusnahan7.00Scr7.000.00
Brian Wilson7.25Scr7.250.00
Kyle Roberts8.00Scr8.000.00
Ollie Wurm8.50Scr8.750.25
Stuart Rooke8.50Scr8.25-0.25
Lyall Weir9.25Scr9.50.25
Sean Law9.25Scr9.750.50
Ben Hardy11.00Scr11.000.00
Brad Schutz11.00Scr11.000.00
Rupert Lugo11.00Scr11.000.00

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35 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:36 pm

Mex

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There are a few good Vic chances with decent marks. Nobody has mentioned yet that Bee pulled up a bit sore on the line winning the 70m at Northcote. If he has been able to overcome this he is a huge chance. I have not seen someone do the damage he has to start this season for a long time. What his starts, he is tearing up the ground quite literally. Wurm is on my watch list. Lugo back on winning marks in Vic. Rooke a chance and probably should have a dip at Bay. Camille is the one I want to watch though. He showed his intent by winning the small 100m on offer at Sandy, took the metre and shut up shop. He could trial here and go really close. He is guaranteed 9.75m at Stawell. He can be pulled in his current mark but will keep the bonus. Watch him closely. Does he has what it takes? Can't wait to watch this final, I hope they have removed the tree from my balcony view though.

36 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:14 am

SANCHEZ


I'll admit I don't know a lot of these runners, but there doesn't appear to much incentive for runners who were uncompetitive last year to make the trip back. Grouis, Lizogobuff, Jackson, Atkins all couldn't break 13 secs and they haven't moved. There is a heap of others who were 4-5 metres off the pace and aren't moving or going up .25 or .50. There has to be some reward for making the trip across, not being competitive and still deciding to come back again.

37 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:07 am

youngy

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SANCHEZ wrote:I'll admit I don't know a lot of these runners, but there doesn't appear to much incentive for runners who were uncompetitive last year to make the trip back. Grouis, Lizogobuff, Jackson, Atkins all couldn't break 13 secs and they haven't moved. There is a heap of others who were 4-5 metres off the pace and aren't moving or going up .25 or .50. There has to be some reward for making the trip across, not being competitive and still deciding to come back again.

12 months is a long time in this sport and athletes, for whatever reason, who appeared to have under-performed are not automatically given a lift based on what they did 12 months ago.

The complexities of handicapping cannot be simplified down to one heat run at Colley Reserve.

Having said that, in respect to Samuel Grouis he was given a reasonably good mark in 2015 for a first time athlete at the Bay. Had he been an SA athlete it's unlikely an 18yo would be allocated 9.00m in his first Bay Sheffield. Just as an 18yo South Australian would not be given 9.00m in his first run in a Stawell Gift. The 9.00m is comparable to his VAL mark so it's a case of steady as "he" goes this year.

Brodie Jackson is a talented 18yo lad from Mildura and rarely travels to SA. He has only run twice - at the Bay Sheffield last year and Loxton this year. He was better at Loxton than he was at the Bay. He has run in the last two Stawell Gifts and has the same mark in Victoria. Without seeing him compete since February, at 18yo, it is a massive risk for any handicapper to throw him up the track. We've seen plenty of athletes who have had an ordinary first up meet, then go away, have a big winter and then return several metres better. Personally, having seen him a few times now, if Brodie realises his potential - 7.50m would be good enough for him to be a genuine contender.

In my view, the mark for Misha Lizoguboff appears to be an error. He ran off 11.00m at Loxton where he didn't get out of the heat and Flagstaff Hill where he ran 3rd in the final. At Loxton, he finished behind both Jack Norris (7.50m) and Ryan Hancock (9.75m) who have both gone forward 0.75m while Lizoguboff goes back a metre. I don't know if he has run anywhere since Flagstaff Hill that would have influenced a reduction of 1.00m.

The 2015 version of Ryan Atkins was hampered by an interrupted prep due to niggles & injury. This season Atkins has finished in the top four at the last four Gifts contested. He has a style that looks like he might have something left. I'm of the view he ran to win at Port Adelaide but fell short by half a metre. His downfall (in terms of perhaps going forward 0.25 to 0.50) was that he got within 0.50m of the winner at John Evans at Port Adelaide. At Brighton with Evans 0.50m further back, the margin between the two was greater, suggesting he lost a metre between PA & Brighton. It's this type of inconsistency, albeit marginal, that puts doubt in the mind of whether he was 100% flat to the line at Brighton. Hence the conservative approach.

I rate Ryan Atkins slightly ahead of the other young athletes around him like Tucker, Norris, Baird, Callahan, Wilson & Evans.  People might be surprised with my nomination of Evans, after he has won two Gifts, but there's a rawness to Evans that hasn't been exposed to a Bay Sheffield yet, particularly as both times he only qualified for the final after running 3rd in a semi. His heat/semi runs in his two Gift wins would not get him into a Bay Sheffield final. He can't leave his best running to his third run, as he might not get there.

The more I look at the field - the more I think there will be  1 or 2 SA athletes at most in the final. I'm leaning to only one with five interstate athletes dominating the race. 


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38 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:58 am

Baltimore Jack


Many interstaters in good form this year. and good marks to go with it. Hard to see a croweater making the final.

Bee
Bedford
Sanderson
Riali
Brittain
Camille

39 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:18 pm

flashest1


My best SA 6, in no particular order are

Norris
Woodhams
Evans
Houlihan
Callahan
Atkins

smokey: Bulabek

we hear every year that no South Aussies will make the final, but they usually do!

Is Williams-Swaine likely to run?

Plenty of interstate talent nominated, but will they run? Good luck to all.

40 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:44 pm

birdman


not sure were u get ur information from youngy but atkins didn't have any niggles or injuries last season

was primed for the bay last year as were 3 of his stablemates but in the last mouth decided he would do another pre season with footy out at the bay

and lost 10m in 3 weeks
had Osmond covered in a time trial by a few with cibich and Abdul close behind
I know what he can do and he has been hiding it hoping mayb he would get a lift
he and houlihan are the best SA chances

only my opinion

41 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:31 pm

youngy

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Sorry about that birdman...I was under the impression Atkins had some (footy related) injuries and assumed it contributed to a loss in form. My mistake.

Watched the tape of PreBay several times last night (like I've got nothing else to do!) - I slowed down the start and watched it frame by frame. Atkins missed the start a beat and Tucker got a very good start - almost "down the barrel." Unless Tucker gets a similar start at the Bay I don't think he can beat ABC. (Atkins/Baird/Callahan). Baird was also relatively slow off the mark. Hancock was unsteady on the blocks and his shoulder movement may have caused Tucker to move as well. To the naked eye it wasn't a break but it may well have been as close as one can get. It's a pity we don't have the IAAF's capacity to check reaction time.

Atkins meets both Callahan & Baird worse off by 0.75m? I don't know - it's very hard to say if he can find the metre plus.

That's the beauty of pro-running - the speculation of how much one can find and if it will good enough to stave off all challengers.....  


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42 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Sun Dec 25, 2016 3:06 pm

youngy

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The top 15 chances in the Open Bay Sheffield are:

$4 Atkins (SA)
$4 Bee (Vic)
$5 Sanderson-Milera (Qld)
$6 Jarvis (WA)
$6 Stevens (Vic)
$7 Camille (Vic)
$7 Bedford (Qld)
$8 S. Rooke (Vic)
$9 Callahan (SA)
$10 Riali (Vic)
$10 Paull (Vic)
$10 J.Newman (NSW)
$12 Houlihan (SA)
$12 Voumard (Vic)
$12 Baird (SA)


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43 choppers guide on Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:45 am

chopper


Heat 1 Riali to beat Tucker. Brittain to make semi, 2 Houlihan/Tronnolone (Voumard on Stawell Novice / Bendigo Classic form would be favourite for the event but has not appeared in late 2016), 3. Callaghan from J Newman, 4. Sanderson-Mileri from Wilson (12.19 Stawell 2nd off 5.75 – only back 1.25m – if in form the whole thing is his - I have him at 3.5m), 5. Evans/Johnson, L Sheffield into semis, 6. Atkins/Bedford, Cibich in semis, 7. Hancock/Brusnahan , 8. TOUGHEST HEAT Woodhams/Camille Stevens and Panizza into semis, 9. 2nd TOUGHEST HEAT Jarvis/Tohl, Norris in semis, 10 Cordoma/Bulabek, 11 Bee/Verrall, 12. Baird/Gross

Semis - Callaghan will run fastest semi time

Finalists Riali/Sanderson-Mileri/Atkins/Baird/Callaghan/Hancock ALTS Bee/Houlihan

Winner Sanderson-Mileri (2nd Atkins as the best of the local SA chances)

44 alter my tips on Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:32 pm

chopper


Gotta think if the restricted winner beats our last gift winner by 2-3m then it doesnt look promising for the SA athletes

1 Rialii Brittain
2 Voumard Houlihan
3 Callaghan JNewman (Richardson)
4 TOUGH Sanderson-Mileri Paull (Wilson)
5 TOUGH Kerr Evans (Johnson LSheffield)
6 Bedford Atkins
7 Hancock raffle
8 TOUGHEST Camille Stevens (Woodhams Panizza)
9 Tohl Abdul ?Gander
10 SRooke Caldow/Cordoma
11 Bee Shephard/Verrall
12 Polglase Baird

Final
Rialli Bedford Sanderson Atkins Camille Voumard ALT Bee Kerr Callaghan

45 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:28 pm

Jenkins


chopper wrote:Gotta think if the restricted winner beats our last gift winner by 2-3m then it doesnt look promising for the SA athletes

1 Rialii Brittain
2 Voumard Houlihan
3 Callaghan JNewman (Richardson)
4 TOUGH Sanderson-Mileri Paull (Wilson)
5 TOUGH Kerr Evans (Johnson LSheffield)
6 Bedford Atkins
7 Hancock raffle
8 TOUGHEST Camille Stevens (Woodhams Panizza)
9 Tohl Abdul ?Gander
10 SRooke Caldow/Cordoma
11 Bee Shephard/Verrall
12 Polglase Baird

Final
Rialli Bedford Sanderson Atkins Camille Voumard ALT Bee Kerr Callaghan

In regards to those times posted by interstate runners Chopper - It doesn't seem to give SAAL short distance athletes much incentive to compete in the Bay Sheffield races knowing they will be handicapped out of the race/ be uncompetitive to win them.

It seems that the SA athletes are not being rewarded enough for competition at our own turf compared to the inflated marks for 1st and 2nd time interstate travellers. I understand that there also needs to be appeal and incentive for the interstate runners to make the trip over but this shouldn't be at the loss of other SA runners.

And as well as this only 5 SA athletes out of 18 spots made these three finals:
Womens 70m - Farmer (1st) & Henry (5th)
70m Open - Norris (3rd)
120m Restricted - Evans (3rd) & Verrall (6th)

**I also understand that this could be due to large amounts of scratchings for the restricted and 70m due to the 120m gifts tomorrow and from this the SA athletes decide to pursue the one race while interstate athletes make the most of running for the time they are here.

On a side note as stated about the times I will touch on the first time traveller to Glenelg being the 120m Restricted winner Kerr (9.5m) won in 12.20s (E/NE wind and heavy wet track) also was the runner up in the 70m open. As stated by chopper above was 2-3m quicker then the past gift winner at Brighton (6.5m) who came third in the restricted final (7m).
Kerr has been in multiple finals in the VAL and too my understanding came third in the u17 100m at Stawell (10.602). From my knowledge for an athlete under the age of 21 or a new athlete to the sport a probation/ novice mark is usually installed (around the 7m mark for 120m) until they have run enough races that the handicapper feels comfortable to change this. (Please correct me if i am wrong in my knowledge) However for a first time runner at the SAAL being off 9.5m in a 120m race as well as 7m in a 70m open seems largely inflated.

So from this if Kerr pulls up well for tomorrow and being lifted to 10m in the Open Gift you would expect him to be very hard to beat in a semi final after dropping a 12.20s (9.5m) with an additional 4 runs prior.

I agree with Chopper that the interstate travellers will swamp the Open Final with either Atkins or Callahan joining them
- 1 SA, 5 Interstate Final.

46 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:07 pm

chopper


Kerr only has 9 tomorrow (goes back 0.5m). The bigger handicapping surprise was his 7m in the 70m (those on 7m included 52yo Ballard, Lugo who has the limit in the gift, 14yo Max Hagicostas, Lizoguboff who has 10. If he didnt slip on his 4th stride would have had 2 sashes at the Bay Sheff carnival)
Voumard unchanged on 10 (Why two Stawell Gift Novice winners Voumard and Lugo can run in SA's premier restricted race is a surprise)
Evans unchanged off 7m, Richardson unchanged off 9, Verrall out 0.25 to 9m, Maloney unchanged off 9
By the looks the handicapper knew he was better than the 9.5 he gave him which is also a surprise
But that is the sport

Finally in my opinion our starter should not be letting athletes continue to lift their pelvis prior to the gun going off. The aim is to get them in the set (non moving) position. Some have worked out as their is no real set to gun time barrier they can continue to move their pelvis and get away with it. Again in the final of the 70m as well as this year PreBay 120, Henley120, Keith Patching70

47 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:28 am

SANCHEZ


Results anyone?

48 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:42 am

racingmania


Most people tipping only 1 SA athlete to final. Looked that away after restricted. Ryan Atkins obvious pick. On form noone could predict Moss/Sheffield making the final. At Prebay Moss/Sheffield were not in the hunt. Moss had some good form at santos. But Sheffield????? That's taking the piss. Hard enough for the experts, got to feel for the handicapper. might turn out to be a bad decision to shit on the handicapper. guess he won't see 8 again.



PreBay Heats
Event 62 - 120m Open - Heat: 2
Position Name Mark Time
1 Mitchell Tucker 8.00m 12.554
2 Deng Bulabek 9.00m 12.600
3 Jarrad Dartnall 10.50m 12.628
4 Liam Moss 6.50m 12.707
5 Daniel Flesfadar 13.00m 12.792
6 Jake Jervis-Bardy 7.00m 12.830
7 Sam Osmond 6.00m 13.158
- Bradley Bain 8.00m Scr

Event 62 - 120m Open - Heat: 3
Position Name Mark Time
1 Oliver Callahan 7.00m 12.594
2 Kyle Roberts 8.00m 12.761
3 Lachlan Sheffield 7.75m 12.788
4 Connor Verrall 8.75m 12.854
5 Liam Wright 9.50m 13.102
- Luke Houlihan 5.50m Scr
- John Evans 6.50m Scr

Event 62 - 120m Open - Semi Final: 2
Position Name Mark Time
1 Mitchell Tucker 8.00m 12.418
2 Jack Norris 7.50m 12.427
3 Sebastian Baird 7.00m 12.433
4 Damian Tohl 8.25m 12.516
5 Lewis Abdul 6.25m 12.604
6 Jarrad Dartnall 10.50m 12.753
7 Liam Moss 6.50m 12.873
8 Kyle Roberts 8.00m 12.850

49 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:18 pm

Wls


Glad I'm not the only person that noticed. the first off good on Atkins for the win but at what point is something to be done when you know an athlete is not competing to their full potential on any other given race? I understand tapering works but not to the point that we are seeing with a few athletes.

We see it all to often when an athlete makes just about every final in the lead up to the bay but doesn't win any of them and then wins the big one beating all the other gift winners from that year by a huge amount? Tapering can be apart of it but you can't say that none of the gift winners from this year didn't taper?

Sheffield on the other hand is a joke I ran quicker than him at pre bay. I'd love to know what the secret is to go from not making it out of your heat to the performance he put down at the bay.

Saal in its current form I don't see any insentive for most back markers or anyone giving it their all to compete on the main stage in SA because they simply have no chance

I eagerly await to see what happens next

50 Nothing will happen on Thu Dec 29, 2016 5:44 pm

Trevorpayne


Wls wrote:Glad I'm not the only person that noticed. the first off good on Atkins for the win but at what point is something to be done when you know an athlete is not competing to their full potential on any other given race? I understand tapering works but not to the point that we are seeing with a few athletes.

We see it all to often when an athlete makes just about every final in the lead up to the bay but doesn't win any of them and then wins the big one beating all the other gift winners from that year by a huge amount? Tapering can be apart of it but you can't say that none of the gift winners from this year didn't taper?

Sheffield on the other hand is a joke I ran quicker than him at pre bay. I'd love to know what the secret is to go from not making it out of your heat to the performance he put down at the bay.

Saal in its current form I don't see any insentive for most back markers or anyone giving it their all to compete on the main stage in SA because they simply have no chance

I eagerly await to see what happens next

Sorry to say I don't think anything will change it spreads across juniors to open.


51 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:33 pm

chopper


The nature of the sport is to get out as far as you can and then strike.
If you fail to win when you strike you are a bit stuck.
There is not really a pathway from an unplaced major gift strike to a subsequent major gift win (just look at the records)
The person who wins gets taken care of (handicap)
The placegetters may have made a mistake and may subsequently win on their mark.
The non-placegetters have pulled up short and will generally need more handicap to win (which does not readily come) - or they need to improve a fair bit
The sport is 130 years old and has a way of looking after itself and its particpants
Well done to all - the time honoured tradition that you need to be the fastest/most relaxed between 90-120m was fulfilled and we have a deserved winner and in my opinion deserved finalists

52 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 30, 2016 7:42 am

Wls


Chopper you believing that some where deserved finalists makes you part of the problem. There are rules in place for a reason, there was even an email sent out stating that the Saal would be watching for anyone not competing to their best and anyone that was seen to be breaking the rules would be meet with consequences, also like every year we are all told at the athletes meeting at flinders that we are all to give our best every time we race and there is no way that the athletes in question did. But like every year they will retain their mark beside Atkins of course and not race over the gift distance for the rest of the year because they have to win anything they enter now and then the cycle begins again

53 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:31 am

youngy

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The three SA Bay Sheffield finalists did not win an open race between them in the 7 lead up carnivals this summer. I've gone back through the records and cannot find a year where SA has been represented in the final by multiple athletes who, between them, haven't won an open race in a lead up Gift (Henley to Brighton). Lachlan Sheffield won a novice 70m, but none of them have won an 'open' race.

There's been occasions where due to injury, athletes haven't been able to run a 120m Gift before the Bay Sheffield (eg: Sclanders 2015, Watkins 2013), but there were other SA finalists in those years who had won open sashes such as Osmond/Richards in 2015 & Sanderson-Milera in 2013.

It's also the first time in memory where we have had multiple athletes in the final where two of them had run in lead-up 120m races but not finaled.

James Cibich was the last athlete (2015) who has run in a lead-up Gift but made no finals prior to making the Bay Sheffield final.

AND - None of the SA finalists had ever previously won a 120m Gift (open or novice). I have gone back many years and can't find a year where none of the SA finalists have ever won a 120m Gift before making the Bay Sheffield final. Not sure it has happened before in a year where there's been 3 (or more) SA finalists.

If someone can enlighten us as to when the last time a Bay Sheffield final included 3 SA athletes with no previous (open/novice) 120m wins, it would be appreciated.


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54 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:46 am

Whispers


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The thing that really worries me is that you have a 13year old run 15.54 off 18m and then 12 months later comes back and runs 14.00 or very close to it.
If you believe in fairies down at the bottom of the garden you would probably believe that the improvement is from natural growth over the 12 months.
Whispers doesnt think so.
Monkey see, Monkey do and I think its really sad that we are seeing athletes so young getting taught to wait , play the game and like Chopper says STRIKE.
The under 18 Boys was a super race and there lies my case , winning off 2m or winning off 16m , WHAT DO YOU WANT TO SEE.

55 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:15 am

geton


Couldn't agree more with you Whispers. The boys race was a cracker & the girls race was a great spectacle between 5 of the runners.

56 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:23 am

Whispers


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Absolutely Geton, Im taking nothing away from the handicapper whatsoever, who would want to handicap juniors with Pro Running Coaches.
Handicapper tries to be fair and has sand kicked in his face.
No one wants to see a runner with such an advantage, that the Winner is known after only the heats have been run.

57 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:45 am

Admin

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The above chart shows the 2015 entrants who ran in 2016. It shows the mark & time run last year & then based on that a projected time off their 2016 mark. I prepared this spreadsheet 2 weeks ago.

For the winner, as you can see the estimated time off her new mark was 15.84. The lowest ranked of all. Pretty hard to justify reducing the mark much more after I had looked at this.

I've estimated she has improved over 12 metres. Based on a his chart & the fact she has regularly competed this season I felt 16.0m (2m back from 2015) was fair & reasonable.

There were a number of 16/17 year old girls who have not improved since 2015. This has exasperated the problem.

Fair to say I was pleased with the Under 18 Boys race. The other two - U/14s & U/18 Girls, not so much.

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58 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:15 pm

geton


She won the pre bay U18's off 17 so was always going to be hard to catch off 16! They certainly got their taper right that squad!

59 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:59 pm

birdman


need t0 understand pe0ple that b0th Lachy and Ryan have made semi finals in 2014 0ff 8.25 and ran 2nd and 3rd in each semi in ar0und 12.6 12.7 they are b0th 2years 0lder

Fantastic eff0rt fr0m lachy wh0 0nly 12m0nths ag0 may n0t have been able t0 run again after a seri0us stress fracture

Plus they are b0th juni0r bay sheff winners
a dersvered winner and finalist

60 Re: Bay Sheffield Discussion - Marks & Chances on Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:18 pm

Wls


Doesn't explain the evidence Pete, that Sheffield did not make a single open 120 or even 70 final in the lead up. Winning a novice 70 does not show form as he ran .22 slower than the open 70 winner who did not make the bay final off the same mark. There is no logical way to explain what happend other than he was holding back.

At pre bay r Hancock ran 12.48 off 9.75 and beats Sheffield Ryan goes forward 1 and Sheffield beats him by roughly 3 after losing to him by the same margin only a few weeks earlier. At most I can see everyone ran slower at the bay with their marks lifted compared to their times at prebay which you can understand because pre bay was a great day and a perfect track, where at the bay was the complete opposite. No Sheffield was the only person I can see who has actually ran quicker at the bay than he did at pre bay even Atkins was slower than that his pre bay run all be it no where near as slow compare to everyone else who ran both events.

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