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PROTRACK » GENERAL » 2016 Stawell Gift

2016 Stawell Gift

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1 2016 Stawell Gift on Thu Mar 03, 2016 10:36 am

paul_a323


hey guys any gossip leading in to Stawell this year
I know its early but I love hearing of guys getting ready and starting to peak for the gift

2 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Thu Mar 03, 2016 2:48 pm

Kangaroota

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Luke Stevens can’t be beaten in the 200m.....problem is he is not entered. Will go around in the 550m instead.

3 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Thu Mar 03, 2016 4:14 pm

airtight

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Stuart Rooke has been smoking anyone who dares to place his blocks next to him in training sessions. Some good pro runners have come away giving up hope for 2016. Looks the one to beat although still three weeks to go.

4 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Thu Mar 03, 2016 9:34 pm

safrican

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ProTrack Star
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After having a conversation with a well respected runner in pros we both agree that it will prob be another beachie potting the $40K

5 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:51 am

The Morphy Mongrel

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ProTrack Star
Nice call safrican, what mark will TSM have? How many Stawell finalists return the next year and win?

6 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Fri Mar 04, 2016 9:21 am

safrican

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spot on Morphy! i heard he has only a 0.75 pull which has him neck deep in it. Vikings are obviously getting something right! well done Brett!

7 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:27 am

Fronttoback


What are the thoughts on Ryan Bedford? drops a 21.01 at Canberra a couple of weeks ago and 21.3 into a 1m head at Queensland champs. Haven't seen him in a gift for a little while.

8 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:02 am

Baltimore Jack


Bedford ran off 4.50 last year. 12.46 and 12.47. Good mark for a 21.01, 200 man.
But gives SandersonMilera 1.75 start.
Milera ran a 21.30 200 himself. Prob has Bedford covered. Milera's Keilor Gift run was a stroll, in my book.

9 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:20 am

Fronttoback


True Baltimore, it will be interesting to watch what unfolds in the next few weeks cheers.

10 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:05 am

auspro




Vic
Rooke [Stawell 12.24 (9m) QYBN 12.18 (9.25m)]
Ware [Stawell 2011 12.19 (10.25m)]
procaccino [Stawell 200m]
Mcnamara [before Stonnington]

SA
Houlihan [Stawell 12.12 (7.25m)]
Richards [Bay 70m 7.49 (4.5m), Bay final]

NSW
Parello [QYBN 70m 7.3s (7m). (false start in 120m)]
roberts [Botany Bay 12.03 (9.5m)]


QLD
TSM stawell 12.28 (7m)

Thoughts? or am i way off the mark

11 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:38 am

The Morphy Mongrel

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Good call auspro.
Only one you can dismiss for certain is Richards. He's not entered for Stawell.

12 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Tue Mar 08, 2016 5:36 am

airtight

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auspro wrote:

Vic
Rooke [Stawell 12.24 (9m) QYBN 12.18 (9.25m)]
Ware [Stawell 2011 12.19 (10.25m)]
procaccino [Stawell 200m]
Mcnamara [before Stonnington]

SA
Houlihan [Stawell 12.12 (7.25m)]
Richards [Bay 70m 7.49 (4.5m), Bay final]

NSW
Parello [QYBN 70m 7.3s (7m). (false start in 120m)]
roberts [Botany Bay 12.03 (9.5m)]

QLD
TSM stawell 12.28 (7m)

Thoughts? or am i way off the mark


Add
Brendan Matthews. 3rd Stawell last year.
Ryan Bedford 4.50,Beat Luke Stevens in Melbourne WC 200. If Stevens had 4.5 he'd be a big chance



Last edited by airtight on Tue Mar 08, 2016 8:01 am; edited 1 time in total

13 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Tue Mar 08, 2016 8:00 am

Ribera

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Expert
Expert
Panizza came back 1.25m from his SA handicap to win Maryborough which indicates if you can hold your Bay Sheff handicap in Vic you are well off. Gross goes up 0.25m on his Bay Sheff handicap. He must be a final chance.

14 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Tue Mar 08, 2016 8:08 am

airtight

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Ribera wrote:Panizza came back 1.25m from his SA handicap to win Maryborough which indicates if you can hold your Bay Sheff handicap in Vic you are well off. Gross goes up 0.25m on his Bay Sheff handicap. He must be a final chance.



Good point, saw that with Richards and Stonnington/Keilor. But there were many Vics not in 'Stawell shape' at Xmas.
Rooke, Rizzo, Proccacino, McNamara, Milera, Riali all missed the Bay and are better now.  
Gross didn't final at Bay. So needs improvement. I can't see him beating these guys.

15 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Wed Mar 16, 2016 9:33 am

Baltimore Jack


auspro wrote:

Vic
Rooke [Stawell 12.24 (9m) QYBN 12.18 (9.25m)]
Ware [Stawell 2011 12.19 (10.25m)]
procaccino [Stawell 200m]
Mcnamara [before Stonnington]

SA
Houlihan [Stawell 12.12 (7.25m)]
Richards [Bay 70m 7.49 (4.5m), Bay final]

NSW
Parello [QYBN 70m 7.3s (7m). (false start in 120m)]
roberts [Botany Bay 12.03 (9.5m)]


QLD
TSM stawell 12.28 (7m)

Thoughts? or am i way off the mark

Not far off the mark

VIC
OUT McNamara
IN Rizzo
IN Riali
IN Dunbar


SA
OUT Richards
IN Gross


NSW
OUT Roberts
IN Kember


ACT
IN B Matthews


QLD
No Change


TAS
No Change, ie No Chances.

16 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:54 pm

auspro


i would think Roberts will final.
Roberts won botany off 9.5m in 12.03. Comes back to 7m. will be around 12.30s at stawell.
Kember ran 12.50s at botany off 8m (0.5s behind roberts!) Kember maybe around 12.40s at stawell?

17 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:44 pm

youngy

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Admin
Admin
New Zealander Joseph Millar was very impressive tonight running 10.33sec and narrowly beating home Aaron Stubbs in the Queensland Track Classic. Brilliant start & led early before being run down by Alexander Hartman (10.29sec) on the line.

With his 3.25m at Stawell he comes into contention and adds a lot of intrigue to the Gift.

PB's according to All Athletics.com:

100m 10.32 +0.9 Auckland (NZL) 22.03.2013
100m 10.21 WA+5.6 Auckland (NZL) 02.03.2013
200m 20.77 +0.7 Hamilton (NZL) 13.02.2016
300m 34.36  Christchurch (NZL) 02.02.2013
400m 46.99  Hamilton (NZL) 19.04.2014



Last edited by youngy on Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:57 pm; edited 2 times in total


_________________
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18 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:47 pm

youngy

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Admin
Admin
auspro wrote:i would think Roberts will final.
Roberts won botany off 9.5m in 12.03. Comes back to 7m. will be around 12.30s at stawell.
Kember ran 12.50s at botany off 8m (0.5s behind roberts!) Kember maybe around 12.40s at stawell?



ANSW Boys 100 Metre Under 17 FINAL
                                                                 
1 Roberts, Will                Canterbury               11.00  -0.9      
2 Darko, Dominic               Campbelltown             11.08  -0.9      
3 Mizzi, James                 Greystanes               11.13  -0.9      
4 Nguyen, Alec                 Bankstown Sports         11.22  -0.9      
5 McCann, Liam                 Glenbrook                11.35  -0.9      
6 Thomson, Nicholas            Hornsby                  11.45  -0.9      
7 Denham, Benjamin             Tuggerah lakes           11.48  -0.9      
8 Harriman, Steven             Camden                   11.63  -0.9  

U/17 Boys FINAL won by Wil Roberts


_________________
"Let's Go While We're Young"

19 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Sun Mar 20, 2016 3:54 pm

oldman


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Wouldn't think an 11sec runner will be making the final off 7m- otherwise if so it's a very open and slow year

20 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Sun Mar 20, 2016 4:11 pm

It's all about Stawell


On his Botany run alone Roberts will run 12.30. Compare that to Ilett running 2m faster last night and has the same mark, 7m. 12.1? But then Millar only gives them 3.75m head start. Has them both smoked at 80m. Forget the regular runners, these guys have them on toast.

21 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Thu Mar 24, 2016 10:51 am

paul_a323


looking at 2016 best times and comparitive handicaps for the gift

williams swain 10.50 gives hale a start
caldow 10.58 gives hale a start
marr 10.58
riali 10.89

hale 10.31
bedford 21.01 off 4.0 gets .75 off hale don't think thats enough

starting to warm towards the kid

22 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Thu Mar 24, 2016 11:37 am

youngy

avatar
Admin
Admin
Mitch Williams has run first and second in the Stawell Gift. Jordan Caldow has won two Bay Sheffields. Both have handicaps commensurate with results. They're not the benchmark for Hale's mark.

Jack Hale is yet to win a 120m Gift of any note.

His performance at Burnie was very impressive. 2nd off 0.50m and beating home Aaron Stubbs who has since run 10.23. Based on Burnie and the 10.31, I reckon his mark is a tad generous given that some of the athletes in front of him such as Khan Marr have regularly competed on the circuit and don't have a time anywhere near 10.31. If Hale was going to get 3.25, I think several athletes in the marks up to 8.0m probably needed more. As soon as you place a 10.3sec 100m athlete on 3.25m, you wipe out athletes who can't break 11sec. But thn again, if you can't break 11sec and you are on 6m to 8m, you are resigned to the fact you are not a contender anyway, regardless of Hale and the 3.25m.

Is Hale's mark a winning mark? I'm not sure of that.

The automatic lift system for certain races has dramatically changed the landscape. Not since the 1970's have we seen athletes so eager to win a minor race. Around 1976 there was a system in place whereby if you wanted to keep your existing mark you had win a qualifying race. The system did not last long as athletes who were missing out were left on uncompetitive marks, while the 'winners' battled it out at Stawell.

The 2016 system is a much improved version.

Initially I thought the system was too generous but having see it evolve throughout the season I now think it's one of the best innovations I've seen. It has added another dimension to the season and made 2nd and 3rd tier Gifts like Northcote, Daylesford, St Albans, Trinity, Geelong and Ararat the best form guides to Stawell we've probably seen. An athlete does not have to rely on secret trials with dubious hand held times; just lob up to one of the designated 'auto lift' events, have a serious crack, take the chocolates and a guaranteed lift. Then, as Stuart Rooke has done, just put your cue in the rack and wait til Easter. And leave the defeated athletes to fight another day.

Another element which adds intrigue is that this is a once off offer. After this year's Stawell Gift, the penalties for those wins will come back into play. Therefore the marks the auto lift winners have for Stawell 2016 are unlikely to be their mark next year. They have basically thrown their eggs into this year's Stawell Gift basket.

Handicapper Graeme Goldsworthy hasn't forgotten some of those who have tried to win an auto lift Gift but failed. They've received something to compensate them.

Overall I reckon it's a pretty well balanced field with most athletes on marks that if they were in best shape, would be very competitive.

I'm really looking forward to seeing the auto lift guys battle it out along with the in-form backmarkers like Hale, Bedford and Riali.....and there's always the smokies, that will never change.

Can't wait!


_________________
"Let's Go While We're Young"

23 Re: 2016 Stawell Gift on Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:02 pm

paul_a323


thanks youngy extremely incisive and informative as always you have certainly helped me in explaining a lot

i too am really looking forward to this year

lets see how we go

good luck to all & enjoy the weekend

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