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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Ballarat Gift

Ballarat Gift

Who wins Ballarat Womens?

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Total Votes : 76

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1 Ballarat Gift on Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:03 pm

Mex

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One of the biggest races for the season. Who will let the brakes off this week for a crack. More entries in the open compared to the women's, good money for each. Who has been hiding away ready for a crack over the next few weeks. One might think it will be a Coop for someone to walk away with this one, we will look Marr and wide for a winner. The chances will come with a Flood. All will be revealed when someone gets the Noddy. Cooper's mark is not correct either, but what was posted. It will be changed on the day.

2 Re: Ballarat Gift on Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:55 pm

vicoutsider

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Good work again Mex.

After Bay, this is by far the most anticipated meet and I'm bursting to have it get started already.

Love it & can't wait!

3 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:38 am

GLPR


final:

riali
tancredi
procaccino
repalust
dunbar
rooke
steinhauser
whittaker

winner: riali

4 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:17 am

oldman


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
GLPR wrote:final:

riali
tancredi
procaccino
repalust
dunbar
rooke
steinhauser
whittaker

winner: riali


Going to be a massive effort and credit to him and the stable if he can come back 2 years and 2m worse off and win it again

5 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:47 pm

youngy

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Seems to me that 2nd place in the Stawell Gift has become some sort of poisoned chalice, depending on who you are. Luke Houlihan going back 3.0m doesn't make sense to me. It sort of compounds the disappointment of getting beat at Stawell.

I know there will be people who will try and justify it, but if you think he's competitive off 4.25m, relative to the Ballarat Gift field, you have rocks in your head.

Andrew Robinson won the 2013 Stawell Gift off 7.25m and is now on 4.0m. Fair enough, he needs it, albeit the marks were increased 2.0m for Asafa Powell. But he is also $30k plus better off. I just can't fathom that the guy who runs 2nd only 2 years later can only be 0.25m better off against the 2013 Stawell Gift winner. (In real terms 1.75m worse off). Robbo's mark is fair & reasonable, by comparison Houlihan's mark is harsh.

Houlihan ran 5th at the Bay off 5.50m (12.73). But realistically he was making up the numbers. Off 4.25m he wouldn't have had a hope of making the Bay final.

Personally I reckon around 5.0/5.25m would be reasonable - it gives him some 'hope' of being in the mix for a VAL Gift other than Stawell.

I can only assume the 2015 Stawell winner, Murray Goodwin is looking at a penalty in the 4.5m plus range. A 1.5m difference between 1st and 2nd should be the minimum given the difference in prizemoney and other spoils.



Last edited by youngy on Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:58 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Changed the Bay final placing to 5th. Also 5.0/5.25 added.)


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6 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:52 pm

chopper


Houlihan pulled 3m for Stawell 2nd and 1m from Bay Sheff 5th. That's crazy. We get one part of the forum going crazy about inconsistent performances from the athletes. The handicapper is no better with this performance. Make the Bay final off 5.5m it is reasonable to hold this until Stawell but I think 6.0 would be a lot fairer

7 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:00 pm

youngy

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Interesting that Gus Carty-Cowling, who has not run much since running 2nd in the 2014 Stawell Gift final has 6.50m. He ran 2nd off 8.50m so he is back 2.0m.


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8 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:33 pm

Scoop


Gus ran no where near as quick as Houlihan that is why less penalty to handicap. But I agree 3.25m is probably too much. So 4.75-5m would be fair. Probably got harsher pull due to messing around at Bendigo prior to Stawell.

9 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:42 pm

youngy

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Gus Carty Cowling had 10.00m in 2013 and only managed 4th in his semi final behind James Vine (8.00m). He has 6.50m at Ballarat - back 3.50m from his 2013 mark. He meets the 2013 winner worse off by 0.25m.

In my opinion Carty Cowling should not be meeting a recent Stawell Gift winner worse off. He should have around 7.0m/7.25m. Again, like Houlihan, it rules him out of Stawell but puts him in the mix for another Classic VAL Gift.


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10 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:57 pm

youngy

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I was interested to see that Tjimarri Sanderson-Milera, who ran 5th in the  2015 Stawell Gift off 7.0m, was allocated 6.25m at Albury. A 0.75m penalty, which I felt was fair enough.

Yet the previous year Chris Innes-Wong ran 6th and went back 1.25m (8.75 to 7.50m). At the time I though it was 0.50m too much. Given CIW lost Ballarat by about a 1/2 metre to Craig Mair, I felt the 'extra 0.50m' cost him the Ballarat Gift.

It's these types of inconsistencies, I find frustrating. Especially when it costs one a Classic Gift.


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"Let's Go While We're Young"

11 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:12 pm

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
If you do the crime, you do the time.
Or to put it more accurately in this context:

"If you do the time, you do the time"

(Where time in the first instance refers to running quicker than net, and time in the second instance refers to meters pulled)

12 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:15 pm

youngy

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Well, that's quite funny.....and dripping with irony coming from DizzyRunner.


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13 Re: Ballarat Gift on Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:40 pm

oldman


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
bloody hell its a dogs breakfast, its all over the place....

If this is happening in the mens, oops i mean open gift, where most runners are known and exposed, what on earth is going on in the women's gift - especially now that there are so many BIG gifts exclusively for the women.....

14 Re: Ballarat Gift on Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:45 pm

vicoutsider

avatar
Last classic gift was on New Years Day and I'm personally bursting with excitement for this to get under way. Really looking forward to (almost) everyone having a go!

The way I see it...

Khan Marr 3.25
Mr Cool Runnings gets a write up everyweek as a chance and the #1 ranked 100m athlete in VIC is getting yet another tip to make this final. Look out if he a) actually runs to the line, b) is allowed to actually run to the line.

Nathan Riali 3.75
Got to see him unleash his 2nd gear at St. Albans and finish 4th. Looking forward to him possibly slipping it into 3rd and beyond and maybe take this one again. An overwhelming favourite in my books. I would love to see him run a straight 100m in the ammos, would give the bobsledder a run me thinks.

Paul Tancredi 6
The pocket rocket has turned back the clock some and i think will continue his super form and make another final from a tough mark. One of the more versatile backies, I actually think he also make the 400m final as well, wait what?

Liam Procaccino 7.25
The strong POD coffee is back on the 120 track, fresh as ever after his NAP in the 100m at Ringwood. Good enough to final but will need to save his beans if he's going to win.

Edward Ware 7.5
He couldn't win Maribyrnong so I imagine he won't get close here...not! He'll make the final but of course, won't win. Wouldn't bet on him if he had fastest time going in to final and i got 100/1!

DANIEL STEINHAUSER 8.25
I think we'll find out that his Australia Day 6cyl tuns out to in fact be a v8! He'll final though again, not sure if he'll try give the bunny one more really good go??

Dean Dobric 10.25
The great white whale! Hasn't been seen all that often and has run even less. You would think based on that he would be expecting to make a final, so will I. A real chance.

Noddy Angelakos 11.5
Has been appearing to rest the last few weeks in the smaller gifts. Will be expecting to give it a red hot go. Will podium though unfortunately I have him finishing 2nd (again) behind Riali..

Next in line for the final...
Cam Dunbar 8 - always a chance.
Mark Hignett 10.75 - plans well
Darren Whittaker 12 - will not surprise if he runs really.

The final:

Khan Marr 3.25
Nathan Riali 3.75
Paul Tancredi 6
Liam Procaccino 7.25
Edward Ware 7.5
DANIEL STEINHAUSER 8.25
Dean Dobric 10.25
Noddy Angelakos 11.5

Riali to win. cheers

15 Re: Ballarat Gift on Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:35 am

airtight

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This guaranteed lift initiative is a worry for a race like Ballarat. Due to wins in smaller races Stawell marks are locked in for
Ware 8.5
Proccacino 8.50
Tancreedi 7.25
Gilroy 5.25
To have a chance at Stawell what incentive is there for these guys to win at Ballarat?
eg - Proccacino wins off 7.25 at Ballarat and he cops a penalty sends him back to 5.75 for Stawell? Does a Ballarat win cancel the auto lift for St albans win?

16 Re: Ballarat Gift on Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:02 am

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
"This “automatic lift” clause will not apply to athletes that win more than one gift event in season 2015/16, regardless of the state. An athlete that wins more than one gift throughout the season be handicapped in accordance with the Handicap Regulations."

17 Re: Ballarat Gift on Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:55 am

airtight

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thanks dizzy for clarifying. that rules out 4 athletes winning Ballarat.

18 Re: Ballarat Gift on Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:35 pm

Mex

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Moderator
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Another race where it may be harder to get in to the final than it is to win it. I think that this race will prove to be much more entertaining as the open gift runners tend to set their sights on specific races regardless of Stawell. The limit at Stawell is too tight for the guys on the front marks here to really challenge. Let's look at the tips.

Nathan Riali 3.75m (12%) - How good is this guy? He runs interstate and moves well, he doesn't run here when he doesn't want to win. I like that theory. Was crippled by an injury last season but is well a truly back in the winners frame. I would not be surprised to see this runner in the red in the final flying down the hill in the last 30 odd metres and celebrating over the line. Huge chance.

Nicholas Repalust 7.25m / Edward Ware 7.5m (8%) - I mentioned recently that Repalust is a nice runner with quick leg speed, but I worry about his ability to run out the last 15m. His time will come, but not this year. Final at best. Stop voting for Ware, he is playing the game. Won the bonus metre for Stawell, went in to hiding. Came out at Maribyrnong but ran with absolute contempt for the sport. Given a UP and a fine, I would have like a reduction in bonus mark, but that was probably never going to happen. He will likely final at Stawell, but can he handle the pressure?

Daniel Steinhauser 8.25m / Dion Paul 8.25m (11%) - Watch both of these guys here. Steinhauser has had his crack at Stawell and missed, does he take one of the next best? His mark is very good though and another lift may get him in the Stawell final. Dion Paull has fallen off slightly, probably due to a change in training and/or orders. Will likely run much better here as there is a little cover. May make the final, but will not win. Only one thing on this squad's mind.

Noddy Angelakos 11.5m / Peter Knott 11.5m (9%) - Noddy can run, he showed that he is still capable of running quick times even after a win. I like him out in front, he will stay that way for a while, can he hold off a fast finishing Riali? Votes not for Knott, sorry Peter.

This races proves to be very interesting, tight handicap limit, the best runners making finals and generally a great final. Can't wait.

19 Re: Ballarat Gift on Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:37 pm

Mex

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youngy wrote:Seems to me that 2nd place in the Stawell Gift has become some sort of poisoned chalice, depending on who you are. Luke Houlihan going back 3.0m doesn't make sense to me. It sort of compounds the disappointment of getting beat at Stawell.

I know there will be people who will try and justify it, but if you think he's competitive off 4.25m, relative to the Ballarat Gift field, you have rocks in your head.

Andrew Robinson won the 2013 Stawell Gift off 7.25m and is now on 4.0m. Fair enough, he needs it, albeit the marks were increased 2.0m for Asafa Powell. But he is also $30k plus better off. I just can't fathom that the guy who runs 2nd only 2 years later can only be 0.25m better off against the 2013 Stawell Gift winner. (In real terms 1.75m worse off). Robbo's mark is fair & reasonable, by comparison Houlihan's mark is harsh.

Houlihan ran 5th at the Bay off 5.50m (12.73). But realistically he was making up the numbers. Off 4.25m he wouldn't have had a hope of making the Bay final.

Personally I reckon around 5.0/5.25m would be reasonable - it gives him some 'hope' of being in the mix for a VAL Gift other than Stawell.

I can only assume the 2015 Stawell winner, Murray Goodwin is looking at a penalty in the 4.5m plus range. A 1.5m difference between 1st and 2nd should be the minimum given the difference in prizemoney and other spoils.



Let's look at some of these a little. I have seen Robinson run plenty of times in Vic since his Stawell gift win. He ran the season after he won multiple times and as such should have started to receive his lifts. His mark is fair and reasonable.

Houlihan (7.25m at Stawell last year) ran 12.12 in his heat, 12.12 in his semi and 12.28 in the final coming second. He must come back to the starting time of 12.45sec, so let's say a 3m pull (could be 3.25m depending on rounding). He would now be on 4.25m. He ran second in the final and is required to be given a .75m pull for his achievement. Therefore he should be on 3.50m. He has 4.25m. I think that Luke has been treated more than fairly, in fact I would suggest that there are a few athletes who did not have the penalty applied for making the Stawell Gift final as they should have. If Luke runs to the best of his ability, as he did at Stawell, running off 4.25m he should run somewhere around 12.45sec to 12.50sec which would final and win most of the gifts run in Vic this season for the remainder. If he is not fit or up to the same level of his best, then yes he will not be competitive.

Gus Carty-Cowling did not run at all the year after he was second in the Stawell Gift. He has run two or three times this year and to be perfectly honest should not receive a lift until he drops some pounds. In the old days the handicapper and steward would have said thanks for running but come back fit. He can't complain about his mark either. He did not run as fast as Houlihan (12.36 heat, 12.37 semi and 12.27 final off 8.5m) he comes back to 12.45sec roughly 1.5m plus his .75m penalty for running second puts him on 6.25m or maybe 6.5m depending on the rounding of times. Having 6.50m is right on or a quarter generous.

Sorry Youngy, not agreeing with those arguments.

20 Re: Ballarat Gift on Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:24 pm

youngy

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You cannot be serious Mex. Stick to being a tipster, never become a handicapper, with this sort of flawed logic you would destroy the sport overnight.


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21 Re: Ballarat Gift on Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:23 pm

Mex

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youngy wrote:You cannot be serious Mex. Stick to being a tipster, never become a handicapper, with this sort of flawed logic you would destroy the sport overnight.

Sorry again Youngy. See page 8 and 9 of the VAL Handicap Regulations. It would suggest that my calculations are correct. I suppose this is the benefit of a handicap system and being in Vic to be a part of it.

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