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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Stawell Handicap head scratchers

Stawell Handicap head scratchers

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31 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 1:39 pm

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Hey chopper, here's some homework. Check out the marks that Kevin Brittain and Brendan Matthews ran off in the Stawell Gift final, compare them to this year's mark and get back to us.
Then maybe edit your post?

32 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 1:58 pm

chopper


Brittain ran in 2 stawell gift finals 2010 (2nd last) and 2011 (last). He is back 0.25 and 0.5m from those stawell gift final results. He has pretty reasonable disclosed form and has been running this year.
Matthews ran the slowest semi in 2010 to run last in the final off 5.75. He now has 6.75
So I am wrong with a finalist who ran last 5 years ago having an extra metre. Dont know him. Never heard of him. I hope he wins it.

There will be 6 new finalists

33 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:57 pm

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You missed one Chopper.
2009 Stawell Gift Semi Final 1
1 4 Yellow 6251 Brendan MATTHEWS(f 7.00 12.065 12.115 Completed
2 5 Green 7106 Kevin BRITTAIN(fq6) 7.50 12.114 12.164 Completed
3 2 White 3403 Iain MACFARLANE(bm 5.00 12.297 12.347 Completed
4 6 Pink 1486 Matthew HARGREAVE 7.75 12.325 12.375 Completed
5 1 Red 2977 Joshua ROSS(bm1) 0.00 12.358 12.408 Completed
6 7 Black 3321 Matthew EDDY(bm36) 10.00 12.43 12.480

Brittain missed the 09 final by half a metre. Matthews had the second fastest time in the semi  12.07secs, but could not run in the final due to injury. So Matthews has actually qualified for two finals.

Matthews was only 18 at the time. He's now 24. He's handicapped to run 12.10.
Brittain is only mid 20's still. 2009 was his first real crack at it.  He's handicapped to run 12.16.

Fact is that a lot of athletes who have never made the final have never got clsoe to recording a sub 12.2 at Stawell and will finish behind Brittain and Matthews.

If the form line is anything to go by. There will be at least two former finalists in the Stawell final.

AND Luke Versace won the Stawell Gift (10) off a bigger mark than when he ran 3rd (9.50). So if you hang around and run crap for a few years you can get another crack!

34 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:44 pm

chopper


Not a bad semifinal line up really.
Dont you think you have used the net time rather than the adjusted time to calculate your handicap limit. i so i would have handicapped to run BM 12.15 KB 12.2 erspectively
Also both athletes are back in handicaps from this 2009 semi to 2015 - sort of makes my point really
If they make the final they deserve it - I would think in one of the cases it would take a pretty significant turn around in the formline.

Eschebach more likely as a follow up finalist though he is back 2.75m from his last placing 2012 stawell gift final. He will also deserve it if he makes it as Stawell is very unforgiving without early natural speed for middle markers

I still say well done handicapper - in the old days if you made the stawell final you were ignored yet if you won a reasonaly big gift you were toast. Nowadays it is the opposite except with making a stawell final being more toast than winning a big gift

35 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:43 pm

samq


B.Galic is your winner. 10.50 +0.8m on the 7th of march. Off 5.75m is a shoe in.

36 HERE IS THE WINNER on Tue Mar 24, 2015 5:55 pm

Meatpie


Section 1 Finals Wind: -2.3
1 Jack Hale 98 Northern Suburbs 10.74
2 Jacob Despard 96 Old Virgilia 10.84


0.14 behind Hale and meets him far better in the marks. Word has it he was ahead of Hale for most of the race and Hale had to really dig deep to take the win.

Despard is your winner ladies & gentleman!



Last edited by Meatpie on Tue Mar 24, 2015 5:59 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add facts)

37 QLD on Tue Mar 24, 2015 6:23 pm

blackcaps


samq wrote:B.Galic is your winner. 10.50 +0.8m on the 7th of march. Off 5.75m is a shoe in.


Galic AKA Mr Can't Run on grass is no chance, history shows this.

Every year it is the non exposed runners we forget about, and they are the ones we need more information on..

I have a sneaky suspicion QLD is overdue...

38 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 6:41 pm

auspro


You dont find it interesting that he finished alongside his team mate last and second last At albury?

39 Stop trying to deflect Galics 10.50! on Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:16 pm

Frontie


blackcaps wrote:
samq wrote:B.Galic is your winner. 10.50 +0.8m on the 7th of march. Off 5.75m is a shoe in.

Galic AKA Mr Can't Run on grass is no chance, history shows this.

Every year it is the non exposed runners we forget about, and they are the ones we need more information on..

I have a sneaky suspicion QLD is overdue...

Easy to dismiss someone who has gone 10.3 and 10.5 this season. Can't run on grass you say??? I think he will have 40,000 reasons to prove he suddenly can!

40 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:38 pm

blackcaps


auspro wrote:You dont find it interesting that he finished alongside his team mate last and second last At albury?

Not overly interesting, no. Albury is a whole differnet world compared to Stawell....

Some goes with Will Johns. Great that he won Trinity and is in good amo form... but Stawell is a whole different game.

Someone expose these QLDers pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

41 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:41 pm

blackcaps


Meatpie wrote:Section 1 Finals Wind: -2.3
1 Jack Hale 98 Northern Suburbs 10.74
2 Jacob Despard 96 Old Virgilia 10.84


0.14 behind Hale and meets him far better in the marks. Word has it he was ahead of Hale for most of the race and Hale had to really dig deep to take the win.

Despard is your winner ladies & gentleman!

interesting indeed. based on handicaps, looks like Despard is well placed. I'd  say top 2 in his semi really pushing a final and these tassie athletes love causing upsets in the finals ( A.Robinson)

42 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:02 pm

blackcaps


Great win by the Kiwis Tonight Very Happy Very Happy Might put my winnings on Dale Woodhams. See below his 2010 result. Back a metre here. HES IN THIS!!!

2 Completed Dale WOODHAMS 12.122 2 7.25

43 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 11:18 pm

youngy

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blackcaps wrote:Great win by the Kiwis Tonight Very Happy Very Happy  Might put my winnings on Dale Woodhams. See below his 2010 result. Back a metre here. HES IN THIS!!!

2 Completed Dale WOODHAMS 12.122 2 7.25

Forget it blackcaps. Dale Woodhams has struggled to recover since he had major surgery on his stomach a couple of years ago. He has run all season including Pulteney on the weekend and is still a few metres shy of his best. He was in the 200m final on Sunday at Pulteney but finished a fair way from the winner.

He will go OK but that's about all. There's other former Stawell finalists in a far better position.


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44 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:42 am

Spythagorus


Is there gonna be a form guide this year? Is anyone else gonna give It a crack and try and pick a legitimate winner?

45 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:02 am

auspro


With queenbeyan. Bay shef. Form guides already this season id imagine it would be getting a little easier youngy?

With 10 or so guys in with a legit chance hopefully it comes down to the final

46 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:06 am

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To some extent you are right auspro. But due to the much larger field, a decent Stawell form guide takes many hours and there's little incentive from Stawell or the VAL to compile one. The last time I did it, I had the support of Mark Howard & the VAL, not financially but certainly in moral support and if I wanted to know a certain detail, Mark was happy to provide it.

I had a lot of great feed back last time....but getting a fuzzy feeling from the kudos doesn't compensate me for the time I spent on it.

If Stawell offered to fund the time & effort required I would do it, but that is not likely to happen.

It's my view the Stawell Athletic Club should commission someone to do a form guide just as the SAAL does for the Bay Sheffield. Camden & Queanbeyan have both done similar. And in the past I've done form guides for Loxton too.

I would make the time if I felt there was some benefit other than just doing it for Protrack.

In time, I will do my own research to a reasonable level and if I feel it's of some value to ProTrack, I might post it.

http://protrack.easyforumlive.com

47 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:33 am

auspro


Would be a shame. Surely the "electric timing levy" can incorporate a "form guide levy" for the Mens and womens gifts.

48 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:16 pm

OldandSlow


Will Mex do one....he's been running all the polls for the gifts so far this year and then writing up the favourites etc....MEX what's your plan?

49 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:19 pm

OldandSlow


ADMIN - why don't you split the field with some other keen form guide writers to reduce the workload on one person? The write up's have been a stawell highlight for years now....would be shame to not do it.



Last edited by OldandSlow on Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:20 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Crappy typing)

50 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:05 pm

youngy

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The handicapping of Isaac Dunmall and Innes-Wong are two of the more baffling Stawell Gift decisions I've seen in 30 years. A bloke wins the Stawell Gift and his starting mark the following season effectively carries a penalty of 2.75m. So he wins $40,000 - the biggest race in the land and the penalty is 2.75m. Fair enough. But it does seem pretty light compared to the previous 130 odd Stawell winners.

I won't discuss Innes-Wong, that's been done.

Isaac Dunmall ran in the same Stawell Gift off 10.50m. He failed to make the final. His penalty for running a fast time and missing the final effectively was 0.50m. (Bearing mind the 2.0m lift for Asafa Powell in 2013) So at this stage he is 2.25m worse off than the Stawell Gift winner.

In 2014, Dunmall makes the Stawell final, albeit he runs last. He is docked another 1.0m for running 6th. Meanwhile the 2013 Stawell Gift winner, due to several visits, is now on 3.50m. So the penalty for winning Stawell has now been reduced to 1.75m.

So by the time 2014 comes around Dunmall - with just the 2013 semi & the 6th in 2014 final - say $1000 total is back 1.50m.
The 2013 winner cashed up with 40k so can keep coming back has had his penalty whittled down to 1.75m.

Stonnington comes around - the 100m Gift first prize of $10,000 and Dunmall wins, effectively off 7.0m. He now cops another 1.75m penalty.

So since Stawell 2013, Dunmall has effectively gone back 3.25m
The 2013 SG winner gets 4.0m for Stawell. Effectively his penalty for winning the biggest race only 2 years ago is now 1.25m.

In 2013 Dunmall was getting a 3.25m start on the eventual SG winner. Now he has a 1.25m start.

Incredibly Dunmall is now 2.0m worse off than the 2013 Stawell Gift winner.

Staggering.


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51 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:23 pm

auspro


AR has run alot since 2013 stawell and been rewarded back to a reasonable mark. if you look at previous stawell gift finilist over the last few years alot have been given huge penalties even if they havent run super fast times (12.30s)
Pretty simple. If you want a good mark dont final at stawell. Or if you do.....win it

52 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:48 pm

youngy

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Yep, it's really not about Robbo who has done everything right to claw back some handicap from Stawell 2013. He doesn't do the marks. My issue is, like you indicated, with the smashing of blokes who don't win Stawell. Athletes who just miss the final or finish at the back end of a final have their disappointment compounded by heavy penalties that effectively have them worse off than if they actually won. To me that is just incomprehensible.


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53 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:59 pm

auspro


I think its fairly reasonable considering CIW was 2nd at ballarat and probably should have won. Dunmall wins 10k at stonnington anyway. They will both have chances to pull back ground over the seasons. I think it is the handicappers idea to make them competative in every race BUT stawell from then on....

54 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:25 pm

youngy

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hahaha,.....Sorry, "should have won"....based on what? That is ridiculous.

He probably ran the best he ever has in his life and got beat. If you think at 30 years of age he needs to spend another 3 years plus 'trying' to pick up ticks to get back to a competitive mark, you live in a fantasy land. Better to cut one's losses and move on to something else.

I don't get how anyone could believe it's reasonable that the Stawell Gift winner is better off than the bloke who doesn't make the final. Staggering.......


I'll finish on this - Graham Goldsworthy is no fool. He was at the Bay.....and he knows full well that CIW is not competitive off 6.0m at Stawell........
 


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55 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:16 pm

chopper


Feb 2014 12.71 off 8.25
March 2014 12.76 off 8.75
April 2014 12.29 off 8.75
If I was handicapper I wouldnt be entirely happy with this athlete. He had a shot failed (meaning he didnt win) pays the price.
Too often in the past we have let these anamolies go - you have a go - you win or lose - you get a pull - i dont think it is a bad system
But will lead to inconsistencies

56 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:34 pm

youngy

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That is incredibly mischievous Chopper. You could trot the same stuff out for dozens of athletes. You have also failed to mention the exact dates, the wind conditions, the relative performances of others on the same day, where the athlete was in terms of his training, etc.

If an athlete goes on a decent taper after a series of hard sessions, it's nothing to find 5m in the space of six weeks. I gather it would be alien to some, but it happens. Doesn't mean he was non-trying at the previous meets.

And just for the record as a junior handicapper who deals with inconsistencies far greater than this on a regular basis - I've had athletes improve 6m in a week....over 70m. Others losing 3m between heat & semi, virtually within an hour. Some pretty close to home.....just quietly. So please don't go there, you are potentially opening up a Pandora's box.

To suggest a handicapper wouldn't be happy with an athlete who runs 6th in a Stawell Gift final, so he is entitled to be vindictive in dishing out a penalty, is preposterous.

"Paying the price" for not winning, that is ridiculous.

If that was the case, certain athletes I've had to deal with in SA would have been hammered back to the stone age.

A handicapper cannot be vindictive. But he must be consistent.




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57 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:06 pm

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
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VAL Handicapping Regulations 2014-15
Calculation of Notional Starting Handicap, Page.8
"For Established athletes in Regular events, the calculated notional starting handicap is determined by
dividing the average of the athlete’s best Rate Per Metre (RPM) from the last 5 seasons and the next
best RPM from the last 2 seasons, into the starting time for that event. The Starting time for each
event is available in Schedule 1 of the Handicap Regulations."

The rules are pretty simple guys. If you have run two quick times within about 2 to 3 seasons you will have to go back.
If you don't like the unpredictability of being OGA, just race more often, become Established, and don't ever break the Starting Time until you are ready to win.

58 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:22 pm

ProTrackRunner


Youngy i'm not having a go here but CIW is your athlete, are you saying that in this time he did or did not improve that much?

It "almost" sounded like you were eluding to the fact that a lot of runners do it... so why not CIW...

I've raced a lot of athletes, but all last year one improved out of sight depending on the meet, one week i would win in 12.6 the next week this athlete would knock me out of a heat in the exact same conditions and be a hell of a lot faster depending on the winnings on offer..... It is the worst thing ever in pro running and if an athlete could be banned for a year or more for doing this i would endorse it.

Sadly this will always be the case.

I understand that athletes bring themselves up for races and do improve. but in the same conditions week after week and the only variable being the prize money gives it away in my opinion.

I will never win a stawell gift, but i will always be known for never tanking a race, taking 4 years to build a mark i could win off and having success.

59 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:48 pm

chopper


for CIW it wasy Ballarat, Bendigo and Stawell. Wind adjusted times used
Im not stating that Innes-Wong handicap allocation is fair. I am mounting an argument to the thinking of the handicappers. If you have an episode of significant improvement and you happen to make a Stawell final - except to be penalised significantly.

Dunmall 10.8 off 7 at Stonnington (adjusted to 12.5 for the extra 17m) then 12.08 off 10.5 1 month later at Stawell (2nd in semi). . Then finals at Stawell off 8m in 12.36 - no lead ups as far as Im aware
Won Stonnington 5.75
Must have run a PB somewhere as that does seem pretty rough for his Stawell handicap 5.25m or won another race Im aware of - or he is being still "disciplined" for performance change in the 2013 season

60 Re: Stawell Handicap head scratchers on Wed Mar 25, 2015 8:06 pm

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I think we've done this subject to death. Pleases no more posts on CIW & Dunmall. Although I take exception to the suggestion either 'tanked' deliberately. I know that is not the case, but I can't be bothered continuing this discussion.

Let's now focus on the Gift itself and the potential chances.

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