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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Easter Bunnies

Easter Bunnies

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31 Re: Easter Bunnies on Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:22 pm

Al Dente


I like the prep of Eschbach and Matthews. Both have been missing for a while now. Houlihan ran at Bendigo and he probably shouldnt have. The pro Vics have no real chances this year. They are all too well known with nothing more to give. I think Steinhauser is probably the best prospect of the normal pro vics. Sheppard would be the best smokey from Vic but I am struggling to see a pro vic even make the final.

32 easter bunnies on Wed Mar 18, 2015 8:09 am

paul_a323


stevens is 1 hell of a talent. only problem is he loves to run and enters everything. his effort last year at stawell in his heat of the 200 was sensational but it absolutely flattens him for anything else. if he became single minded in his efforts and seriously went after stawell then I completely agree anything around 2.75 upward puts him right in it up to his ears.

I said in a previous post I am most interested to see what they give Hale because you would think that they would want him in the final

33 Re: Easter Bunnies on Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:15 am

youngy

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Al Dente wrote:Looking forward to hopefully a good race to finish off the year. After Ballarat I liked Innes Wong. He was also good at Stonnington but was still short of some of some other SA boys. He then chose to win Loxton and Flagstaff Gifts and then must take a 1 to 1.5 hit which will make it much harder for him. I still think he will be good but there are 3 standout SA runners Houlihan, Sanderson-Milera and Hicks. I think at least 2 of these will final. Sanderson-Milera looks the winner to me.


Reasonable assessment "Al Dente"...........Chris IW had a serious crack at Ballarat and came up short. Likewise with Stonnington & the Don Furness. Waiting for Stawell (off 7.50m) was an option however when weighing up the chances, I felt there's at least 8 to 10 athletes ahead of Chris. Let's not kid ourselves...Ballarat lacked the depth of previous years. At least 5 athletes at Ballarat clearly under-performed. And then there were some who chose not to run at Ballarat that I feel are ahead of CIW at the marks. So ultimately, given his age (29) it was an obvious choice to either take something of value (Loxton - $5k) and win a sash or go to Stawell and get run out in the semi and end up with jack schitt and have little to show for the season.

In my experience of the Stawell Gift, an athlete off 6.75m to 7.25m needs to be in around 10.75 to 10.80s shape for 100m. I'm not convinced the SA athletes are up to that level, however it may be a year where the athlete only needs to be in 10.9 shape to be a genuine chance.


_________________
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34 Re: Easter Bunnies on Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:30 pm

Al Dente


I was just checking marks. Sanderson Milera was given the wrong mark.
Last year at Stawell he was off 7m. He can't start in front of that the next year. He won a gift at Hectorville in mid January this year meaning he has to take a penalty of 0.75. He was given 7m at Avondale Heights in Feb. He hasnt been penalised for Hectorville and should have been on 6.25 at Avondale Heights.
It would be very embarrasing if he won and he clearly has been given the wrong mark. Surely this should be fixed and his penalty for his Hectorville win be included in his Stawell mark.

35 Re: Easter Bunnies on Thu Mar 19, 2015 6:28 am

Guest

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al dente it is not mandatory for interstate wins to be penalized in another state

as standards vary.i would suggest wins in sa not that high on my list,

I noted stubbs was penalised for win at gold coast 6.25m ??

back to .50 at euroa I suspect the nom was to test what would be mark for future
races

spencer seems to have dropped below radar I had him favourite last year

36 Re: Easter Bunnies on Thu Mar 19, 2015 7:17 am

Al Dente


You will find that the penalty is mandatory no matter where the win is. The rules say "Interstate wins by Victorians or interstate wins will also be penalised in accordance with the penalty table and the handicap regulations".

Even with Milera getting a penalty, I still have him as my winner.

37 Re: Easter Bunnies on Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:18 am

Rookie


Hectorville is worth about $100 to the winner and without checking I'm going to assume it was an average field with an average time.
Would be harsh copping .75m for that.

38 Re: Easter Bunnies on Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:19 am

youngy

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Al Dente, pretty sure a group 3/4 win (first prize less than $500) does not affect your mark in a Classic. If it does, ordinarily the penalty is only 0.25m. The Hectorville Gift was only worth about $250 to the winner. Plus the important fact that Tjimarri won the Hectorville Gift off 7.50m in 12.56 on a day with a strong tail wind for most of the day. Tjimarri ran 2nd in his heat in 12.43 and 12.47 in the semi. Again both events affected by strong tail winds that if held under VAL conditions would have seen adjusted times in 12.6+.

So you are being a tad mischievous to suggest he should be re-handicapped 0.75m off his Victorian mark. If anything he should be re-handicapped off his winning mark - 7.50m.

So in essence, given he was 2nd at Stonnington off 5.75m in the 100m (effectively 7.00m), last year's mark of 7.00m seems about right.




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39 Re: Easter Bunnies on Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:51 am

Al Dente


If it was only $100 then the minimum penalty would be right. You are correct that a grp 3/4 can be non penalty for classic but that is not guarranted. For it to be non penalty for classic it is discretionary and must be approved by the Handicap Review Panel, otherwise the penalty stands even for classic races.
He should have received the penalty for his Avondale Heights mark and for it to be returned for any classic races it should be at the descretion of the handicapper and not guaranted.
I would like to see him in the final, he is running very well but he shouldnt get an advantage over others.

40 Re: Easter Bunnies on Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:08 am

S.hill


Please stop talking al dente.

41 Re: Easter Bunnies on Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:12 am

Al Dente


Without handicaps yet. Hard to know.
Based on results this year my finalists are Sanderson Milera, Johns, Houlihan, Goodwin, Eschbach, Procacino.
Most of these have supported the pros even travelling from interstate many times and they would be good finalists. One hasnt supported pros and he is a Vic.

42 Re: Easter Bunnies on Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:17 am

oldman


ProTrack A Grader
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Exactly AL DENTE - wait for handicaps please before posting again - or else we will have to run a POLL to see who wants youngy to remove your rubbish posts about getting pulled 0.75m for a tiny gift worth a couple of hundred bucks.

43 Re: Easter Bunnies on Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:34 am

racingmania


SandersonMilera is not a 10.7 runner. Closer to 10.9ish.
gets less than 7.50 and he's only making up the numbers. He will probably get 7 so around 4th to 6th, if he finals.

44 Re: Easter Bunnies on Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:54 am

auspro


so will the handicaps be released wednesday?
Until then maybe AL DENTE can release his handicaps??

45 Re: Easter Bunnies on Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:49 pm

Graeme Lebroy


I don't need the handicaps...I already have the winner of the gift sorted...

Its harder to pick the winner of the vets 300 than the gif this year...you guys re all having a laugh surely.

In fact the hardest part this year is finding a guaranteed winner for Round 1 of the AFL to get the mutlti bets to get some value out of the gift winner. Maybe Richmond????

46 Re: Easter Bunnies on Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:20 pm

Hubbaup


Have you been smoking the same gear as Al Dente Graeme. If you are going to declare the winner before handicaps are out you probably need to name him champ !!

47 Re: Easter Bunnies on Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:53 pm

OldandSlow


Graeme big call on being able to pick a clear winner, I'm with Habbaup lets hear it and see if it comes off....but am confident you won't name names. save the vets 300 for another thread...but agree it should be close and no clear standouts.

48 Re: Easter Bunnies on Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:30 pm

oldman


ProTrack A Grader
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Stawell gift odds no doubt can't be used in TAB multi bets again this year Graeme, they cut that off after Tom B and Matty B took them to the cleaners.....

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