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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson

Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson

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1 Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 12:47 pm

youngy

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While at Keilor last week,  it was mentioned to me (not by the athlete himself) that Simon Jackson is worse off by 1.5m from two years ago without winning a Gift nor making the Stawell Gift final. On checking sure enough Jackson was 1.50m worse off. It seems harsh when compared to much better performed athletes, especially as Jackson is 36.

There were 33 athletes who entered the last two Keilor Gifts in 2013 & 2015. Jackson is in the same position as Matthew Eddy who ran 3rd in a Bay Sheffield and won the Maryborough Gift. And given he didn't make the 2013 Stawell Gift final it does seem 'out of whack' he would only be 0.25m better off than the bloke who won the Stawell Gift.

I have no involvement with Jackson....it just seems bizarre that this could happen.

Anyway worth having a look at the list.



No.SurnameFirst NameKLR - 2013KLR - 2015Diff
1VoumardMichael6.009.253.25
2DobricDean7.7510.002.25
3DunbarCam6.508.001.50
4LehmannBrady7.509.001.50
5LyonsDale8.259.751.50
6O'DwyerPeter9.2510.501.25
7MagreeNick9.5010.501.00
8MossCameron6.507.501.00
9TaylorLachlan9.009.750.75
10HowardNick11.7512.500.75
11BrittainKevin5.506.000.50
12GreenoughDoug7.758.250.50
13MathewsRod11.2511.500.25
14ParkinsonRhys8.508.750.25
15FoleyCraig12.2512.250.00
16MarrKhan3.253.250.00
17MorehouseCarl5.005.000.00
18WareEdward8.008.000.00
19TiuJosh8.508.00-0.50
20WoodrowShane10.009.50-0.50
21FitzpatrickSimon8.758.00-0.75
22HarveyMatthew10.7510.00-0.75
23HargreavesMathew6.005.00-1.00
24VineJames6.005.00-1.00
25DespardJacob5.003.75-1.25
26HignettMark11.7510.50-1.25
27EddyMatthew8.256.75-1.50
28JacksonSimon10.008.50-1.50
29RobinsonAndrew5.003.25-1.75
30TancrediPaul8.006.25-1.75
31WhitneyLuke8.006.00-2.00
32RialiNathan6.003.75-2.25
33MairCraig13.759.75-4.00


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2 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 1:22 pm

Ribera

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Very simple. Adjusted back to 12.45 Start handicap for fast times.
Unfortunate last year getting nutted on the line by Sam Jamieson in the semi.


2013 Stawell Gift off 11.75m

Heat 11.961 raw; 12.101 adj

Semi 11.938 raw; 12.083 adj

2014 Stawell Gift off 9.50m
Heat 12.244 raw; 12.384 adj
Semi 12.272 raw; 12.377 adj

3 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 1:40 pm

airtight

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The ONLY stat that matters is WINS, Prizemoney and Big Gift final appearances. Simon Jackson has none.
From 2013, 3 metres worse off than Cam Dunbar, who has won 5 major Gifts and is younger than Simon.
I think he should keep 9.50 until he wins something.

4 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:36 pm

Ribera

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Airtight, read the rules. Whether we agree or not with the rules, they are what they are. You’ve just used this as an excuse to pot Dunbar and make it sound like he’s had 5 major gift wins since 2013.
His gift wins prior to 2013 pulled him back. That is why the handicap has gone out since.
Jackson since 2013 has been an improving runner and due to breaching net time has been adjusted back. His Stawell times suggest he could have won any gift he wanted but chose to keep his improvement until Stawell. He was very stiff last year and would have gone close to winning the Stawell final had he got past Jamieson in the semi.

5 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:48 pm

DizzyRunner


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Ribera, why did you have to let your logic and knowledge of crystal-clear rules in the Handicapping Guidelines get in the way of a good story?

6 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:57 pm

Ribera

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Sorry for getting in the way of a good story Dizzy. I’ll crawl back under my rock.

7 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:09 pm

youngy

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Regardless..... from a purist's point of view where traditionally athletes are judged on their wins and prizemoney.......it does show a fine line when it comes to Stawell. Some can go there, end up with nothing and still cop a penalty. Another athlete can walk away with the Gift & the 40 thousand and end up only marginally worse off. As Ribera says - thems the rules.....but that doesn't make it right.

As for the comment to say "his Stawell form suggests he could have won any Gift"; that is purely conjecture. No-one knows that for sure. It depends on a host of factors. He couldn't make the Stawell Gift final so I doubt he could have won any Gift. Yes, some of the Gifts, like maybe Wang or Trinity. But "any Gift" is a stretch.... Looking at results of some of the major Gifts in the last 2 years, some-one always pops up, and I doubt Jackson could have taken his pick.

My own view is that fast times should not be the sole basis for a re-handicap. I've seen first hand that this can ruin an athlete (a few years ago) and I think it can lead to an athlete unfairly pulled out of future contests.


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8 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:12 pm

SANCHEZ


Well said Ribera. If you roll the dice and wait for the big dance but just get nutted, then you pay the penalty if you run quick. This sport is all about choices and if you make the decision to wait then you've got to cop it sweet.

9 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:25 pm

Baltimore Jack


Interesting discussion. I'm new to the sport and I do understand the stats with the times. So if times are so important why is anyone pulled for winning a Gift if the time is slower than 12.45? What also confuses me is why is he only 0.25m better the Stawell Gift winner, surely the Stawell Gift winner ran faster by more than 0.25m??

10 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:49 pm

Trackstar

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SANCHEZ wrote:Well said Ribera. If you roll the dice and wait for the big dance but just get nutted, then you pay the penalty if you run quick. This sport is all about choices and if you make the decision to wait then you've got to cop it sweet.


Good on you SANCHEZ. Bloke decides to set himself for the Stawell Gift, makes sacrifices and has a dip, gets knocked out in a semi.
Loser. Stuff Him. Serves Him Right. Loser. Should never have waited. Loser. Pull the shit out of him. Loser. You rolled the dice now you can't win anything. Loser.
Sad Sack SANCHEZ. Good on you.  Evil or Very Mad



Last edited by Trackstar on Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:49 pm; edited 1 time in total

11 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:54 pm

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
"For Established athletes in Regular events, the calculated notional starting handicap is determined by
dividing the average of the athlete’s best Rate Per Metre (RPM) from the last 5 seasons and the next
best RPM from the last 2 seasons, into the starting time for that event. The Starting time for each
event is available in Schedule 1 of the Handicap Regulations." Pg. 8 of 33 (VAL Handicap Regulations, 1Sept, 2014)

Themz the Rulez.

12 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:29 pm

SANCHEZ


No one's having a crack at him for waiting Trackstar, but as I've said he had to make a choice. He could have easily won a Keilor or Bendigo or Rye etc. , but he backed himself to win the big one. Good on him for that, but don't come on here crying that he is now so hard done by. He is now being handicapped to run 12.45 on his best runs like every other established runner. He is still well placed compared to many OGA runners who have been in the system for a couple of years but haven't got their mark out to a point where they can run 12.45. By rights the only runners that can beat him are the few that can run faster than 12.45 at the start of the season but haven't produced it yet. If he is 36 then he is getting to the point where the veterans allowance can be invoked, but that is at the discretion of the handicapper. He has to be satisfied that the handicap is no longer reflective of his ability. Going on last years run, I'd say he should still be around the money in most races if he is fit and well.

13 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:31 pm

Graeme Lebroy


Dizzy

Does his Sandringham gift win impact his mark?

14 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:41 pm

SANCHEZ


No. That was 300m and can't affect the gift mark.

15 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:48 pm

Trackstar

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SANCHEZ
He couldn't have easily won Keilor. There was no Keilor in 2014.
He couldn't have easily won Bendigo because Robert Spencer beat Sam Jamieson with a metre to spare AND Jamieson beat Jackson at Stawell.
He might have won Rye, but who knows? Easily. Maybe?
You are only assuming he ran in Gifts and chose not to win them.
Oh and not every established runner is handicapped to run 12.45. A few have got back out in marks to run faster than 12.45 but are not running to that time due to lack of form or by choice.

16 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 7:59 pm

The Judge


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Last edited by The Judge on Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

17 Re: Keilor Gift 2013 to 2015 & Simon Jackson on Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:03 pm

SANCHEZ


Whether Powell was entered or not is completely irrelevant. Your RPM is determined by the time ran divided by distance ran. If the two 2013 runs are the ones in his sample then his average is 12.09 for 108.25m which gives an RPM of 0.1116. If you apply that to the starting time of 12.45 his handicap should be exactly 8.44m (8.50m). At 36 years of age he is doing well to be running as well as he is, but these runs combined with how well he ran at Stawell in 2014 makes it hard to say that these runs are no longer reflective of his ability.

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