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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Herb Hedemann

Herb Hedemann

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1 Herb Hedemann on Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:18 am

tjsav117


Given all the interest in the gift, thought I'd use my first post to try and start a conversation about the Easter Monday highlight for Middle Distance runners, The Herb Hedemann and also shed some light on some athletes that people on the forum may not be familiar with.

Looking at the field believe race will be run in close to, if not just under 4:00, with this in mind we can take out a number of athletes who won't come close.

Brady Threlfall(65)- Brilliant pros runner, however ran 4:01 in amateur 1500m in Bendigo and is now 35m back, with increased focus on longer events since Bendigo, unlikely to feature.

Jack Marquardt(80)- 1:55 800m runner with no history in the pros. Despite quick 800m, doesn't have much history over the 1500m and can't see him holding off the field and featuring in the finish.

Shaun Geraghty(65)- Was an excellent junior athlete, who has raced sparingly over last several years, holds a best of around 3:52, however don't think quite in that form currently and will be hard pressed to hold off the field from that mark.

As a general tip, at least one of the three backmarkers will place, all men inside 3:43 this year.

Winner- Hard race to pick but would not be surprised if winner came from back of the field, could be any of the three, but will take Rowe, sets himself for this one each year.

As a final piece of information, Jack Davies(70) quality junior athlete, more known as a distance runner but can handle the shorter distances(can attest to that given he's handed me a few beltings through juniors) holds a recently set best of 3:53 and looks one of the stronger frontmarkers.


2 Re: Herb Hedemann on Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:17 am

Double Jeopardy


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Nice attempt tjsav117, but this is how you do a preview! Last year, DJ tipped the winner and nearly predicted the Top 6 in finishing order. Looks a more open race this time around but here is everything you need to know about everyone's favourite race at Stawell*.

Brenton Rowe (Scr) PB: 3.38.68 (SB: 3.41.91) Odds: $4
One of Australia’s (and Austria’s) finest distance runners. This season he has won the Select 1600m at the Bay Sheffield, the 3200m at Ballarat and finished 2nd in the Backmarkers Mile at Bendigo (4.01, Scr). Last year he finished 3rd, running 4.03 off the scratch mark. He looked the winner with 200m to run but his early efforts caught up with him as he was out kicked by Clark and Craigie. Despite not running a 1500m PB this season he appears to be in career best form, winning a bronze medal in both the 1500m and 5k at the Australian Championships a couple of weeks ago. Regular Hedemann runner and rarely misses a top three finish.  

James Hansen (5m) 3.41.85 (3.41.85) $6
Huge breakthrough season for the Tasmanian. Took a substantial chunk off his PB in Sydney where he beat Rowe. Ran 4th in the Australian championships, beaten just over a second by Rowe. Also picked up a win in the Devonport Mile along the way this season. This should be a great battle between our two backmarkers with tactics likely to be critical.

Philo Saunders (10m) 3.41.22 (3.42.43) $15
One of the stalwarts of Australian middle distance running. Despite nearing his 40s, Saunders is running remarkably close to his best. He ran 3.42 in the same race that saw Rowe and Hansen produce their season’s bests. Had a disappointing performance at the Oz Champs, finishing 4th in a slowly run heat and missing the final. Won this race in 2009, running 4.03 off 5m (Rowe ran 2nd off Scr). Experienced campaigner who will be tough to beat if he can recapture his early season form.  

Tom Fawthorpe (30m) 3.46.45 (3.46.47) $3.50
Another good season for the Ringwood athlete. He took out the Victorian Mile Championship, finished 3rd in the Vic Champs 1500m and made his first National 1500m final, finishing 5th. He finished down the track off 25m in last year’s Hedemann but will be better for the experience this time around. The one to beat.

Joshua Johnson (30m) 3.46.61 (3.46.61) $15
Indifferent form for much of the season but managed to produce a PB over 1500m. Missed the final at Nationals by one spot and will need to reverse that form if he is going to feature here. Hard to see him beating Fawthorpe off level marks but not the worst.

Stephen Dinneen (40m) 3.48.17 (NA) $26
Ran 4th last year off 35m so handicapped favourably. However, since last year he hasn’t been seen over the 1500m journey and made his marathon debut in January at the Houston Marathon. Unless he’s done a few secret speed sessions recently DJ suggests you look elsewhere.

Nicholas Wightman (45m) 3.48.62 (3.48.62) $15
Made some big improvements this season, slicing nearly four seconds off his PB when he broke 3.50 for the first time in March. Last year he ran 4.05 off 65m but as mentioned has improved since that time. However, he ran below his best at the Oz Champs, finishing 8th in his heat. Top 10 but don’t think he’ll be able to get into the finish off 45m.

Michael Marantelli (50m) 3.49.43 (3.49.43) $10
Has lowered his PB by more than five seconds this season and broke 3.50 for the first time in the same race as Wightman in March. Like Wightman, ran below that standard at Nationals, finishing 6th in the same heat as Saunders. Won five races on the 'pro scene', including three 1600s this season. Last VAL mile was at Bendigo, running 4.06 (45m) and beaten five seconds by Rowe. Will be thereabouts but likely to be 5th to 10th.

Lachlan Aspinall (55m) 3.50.50 (3.50.50) $21
Like Wightman and Marantelli, has significantly lowered his 1500m PB this season. Had 50m in last year’s race and was well beaten. Look for an improved showing this time around but still doesn’t have enough handicap to be there at the business end.

Chris Discombe (55m) 3.50.09 (3.53.0) $10
Form very solid, running 9.00 for the Steeple at Nationals where he finished 5th. Has a 3k PB of 8.11 which shows his class and his 1500m PB of 3.50.09 indicates that he is more than capable off 55m. Only has a SB of 3.53 but that’s probably due to limited racing opportunities more than anything else. Should be thereabouts.  

Tim Norton (60m) 3.42.82 (3.51.8h) $41
Receives a very generous lift after running 7th last year off 25m. However, he appears to be a long way off his best this season. He failed to finish in the last Vic Milers meeting and didn’t start the race at Nationals so suggest there is an injury query.

Michael Roeger (60m) 3.51.08 (3.51.08) $18
One of Australia’s best AWD athletes. His PB is within a second of the World Record for his classification and he looks certain to break it at some stage in his career. Originally from South Australia, he’s no stranger to professional running, winning a couple of Bay Sheffield races in years gone by and has competed well at Stawell previously. Returns this year and will be competitive, despite running off a relatively tight handicap.

Brady Threfall (65m) 3.53.55 (4.05.14) $34
A previous winner of this event, winning two years ago (4.00, 85m) and running 5th last year (4.04, 55m). His season’s best is irrelevant as he’s focusing on the longer stuff these days. He’s a much better athlete than that and will have a crack come Easter Monday despite a less than ideal preparation for 1600m running (5th placing at Run for the Kids).

Shaun Geraghty (65m) 3.52.32 (NA) $41
Young runner and based on his PB, given a chance to be in the finish for his first trip to Central Park. However, hasn't done much in the last couple of seasons and probably moving up in distance anyway.

Jack Davies (70m) 3.53.01 (3.53.01) $15
Young runner on the rise who goes better the longer it gets. He’ll be very competitive but might not have the big kick finish.

Andrew Axford (70m) 3.53.1 (3.53.1) $26
This year’s South Australian 1500m champion but never seems to run at his best in the Pros. He’ll be in the race with a lap to go but don’t think he’ll be there at the finish.

Douglas Hamerlok (75m) 3.53.98 (NA) $6
Broke 4.00 off this handicap when he ran 2nd in the Backmarkers 1600 two years ago. Based on that run, he’s up to his eyeballs in this. Is a big time performer, having won just about everything there is to win back in Tasmania. Will be looking to taste Stawell success for the first time this year but his best hope may well be in the Backmarkers 3200. Watch his run in the Backmarkers 1600 as an indication of his chances in this. Probably has the strongest finish of any of the frontmarkers.

Dean Tromp (80m) 3.54.98 (3.54.98) $8
Given a genuine chance by the handicapper for his first trip to Central Park. Recent form is solid, running his PB within the past month. Query is he might not possess the finishing kick required to win a race of this nature. As a result he’ll need one of the other guys off the front to set a solid tempo.

Andrew Stevenson (80m) 3.55.62 (3.55.62) $18
Can’t see him beating Tromp off form or PBs so don’t think he’ll be winning but he should be competitive off the 80m.

Daniel Balassone (80m) 3.54.6 (3.58.8h) $66
Ran 3rd behind Threfall in this event two years ago. On that occasion he ran 4.01 off 105m. He’s had an interrupted couple of years since that time and comes back to 80m here. A SB of 3.58.8 suggests he’s going to struggle here.

Matthew Turner (80m) 3.54.34 (NA) $34
Has a PB set in 2012 which would make him very competitive off 80m. However, we haven’t seen that type of form from him in any of his VAL runs to date. Might enjoy running in a pack more than the chasing he has mostly had to do this year but would need a big turnaround in form to figure here.

Jack Marquardt (80m) NA $51
Couldn’t find any information on this athlete other than a 1.55.7 800m PB set last year. I can’t see him figuring in this.

Cameron Clayton (85m) 4.00.03 (NA) $51
He might be the fastest runner in the race but he’s unlikely to enjoy the four laps of Central Park. Doesn’t have the mile pedigree required for the Herb at the moment, despite winning the Backmarkers Mile at Bendigo (4.00, off 125m) and running 2nd at Stonnington (4.05, 120m). DJ would be surprised to see him lining up in this one. Prefer in something shorter.

Nathan Hartigan (85m) NA $51
Don’t have a 1500m PB for Hartigan and his focus is clearly on the long stuff. Receives a 15m lift after running near the rear off 70m last year. Still can’t see him having the necessary speed for this. Looms as the obvious early leader as he’ll want to ensure this is a truly run race, potentially setting up the race for the likes of Tromp.

Tony Crawford (95m) 3.58.31 (3.58.31) $66
Broke 4.00 for the first time not that long ago but followed that run up with a disappointing showing at Nationals. Finds himself all alone out in front for his first run at Stawell. Likely to be better for the experience.

This appears to be one of the best Hedemann line ups for several years. Nine sub 3.50 athletes and 20 out of 25 have broken 3.55 before. Furthermore, a large majority of the field have set their PB this season. We have an almost exclusively amateur field with no one an out and out ‘pro runner’ in the starting line up. I dare say that makes this the easiest event on the card to handicap with no hidden form and as a result we should be set for a cracking Herb. We can expect Hartigan to set the pace at the front. Just how fast he goes, might determine the chances of the 65m+ runners. If they don’t get on their skates from the start then our three backmarkers are going to be incredibly hard to beat. DJ is tipping Fawthorpe to claim the win off 30m. He’s in the form of his life, coming off a 5th placing at Nationals and off 30m he should have a little more up his sleeve than Rowe & co. when the whips get cracking at the 200m mark.

Top 8
Fawthorpe (30m) 4.01
Rowe (Scr)
Hamerlok (75m)
Hansen (5m)
Tromp (80m)
Marantelli (50m)
Discombe (55m)
Davies (70m)

As some added motivation, DJ will leave you with the best run ever seen on the grass at Central Park!

http://www.stawellgift.com/gallery/videos/2011-australia-post-stawell-gift-videos/collins-cheboi-wins-2011-retravision-herb-hedemann-mile/

* The Herb Hedemann may or may not be everyone's favourite race at Stawell, but it should be.



Last edited by Double Jeopardy on Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:43 am; edited 1 time in total

3 Re: Herb Hedemann on Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:44 am

tjsav117


Certainly not trying to do a full preview, just trying to fill in a few blanks with some of the younger/new runners who I am familiar with, agree that this years is a top class field and yes, should be everybody's favourite race of the Easter Weekend

4 Re: Herb Hedemann on Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:34 pm

Guest

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im sorry these odds of yours are in fairyland most likely 3/1 the field

5 Re: Herb Hedemann on Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:04 pm

Double Jeopardy


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Bazzap, obviously these aren't going to be the odds available. I just put up what the market should look like in a world where the bookmakers at Stawell wanted people to bet with them.

6 Re: Herb Hedemann on Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:16 pm

vicinsider


Ha ha gold DJ!

7 Re: Herb Hedemann on Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:11 pm

Guest

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I agree with tjsav 117, if there  were any book makers on track,odds would evolve as market progressed maybe into odds quoted earlier



Last edited by bazzap on Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:22 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : syntax wrong)

8 Re: Herb Hedemann on Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:22 pm

Rookie


bazzap wrote:I agree with if there  were any book makers on track


So as a protrack community are we just totally disregarding everything bazzap says from now? Because he can't seem to string a sentence together that makes any real sense.

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