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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Stawell 1600m Backmarkers Formguide

Stawell 1600m Backmarkers Formguide

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1 Stawell 1600m Backmarkers Formguide on Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:28 pm

Red leg


Been over 12 months since my self imposed ban though i would post a form guide. Will hopefully get to a 3200m one as well.

Bradley Kitto (150) – 2nd Year SA athlete better suited to the 800 who is a gun field hockey player. Most recent 1600 form is Camden where he didn’t bother the major players finishing well back off 130. Has run 2nd this year in the Loxton 1000m (2:31 off 80), got the Chocolates at the Tea Tree Gully 800m (1:58 off 84) and ran a cracking 800m heat at the bay to just miss the final behind Marantelli and Corey Watkins. Hasn’t been seen since Loxton suggesting Hockey may have taken over.

Gary Turner (140)  – Improving brother of Matthew who ran 6th at Euroa 1600m his best run with the league. Form prior to that average with a 29th at Maribyrnong 1600m, 25th at Ringwood & 28th at Trinity 1600m. Rarely runs not this year.

Cameron Clayton (100) – The ultimate “pro” runner. Has had a stellar year since switching to Hipworth stable. Big win at Bendigo Mile (4:00 off 125) beating a gallant Rowe, Ran  2nd 1600 at Stonnington, 2nd 400m Backies at Ballarat, 3rd 800m Backies  Ballarat, 3rd 1600 at Burramine,  2nd 800 at Burramine & Eurora & 3rd Maryborough 800. If is touching distance with 200 to go lights out game over. Will be top 8. Really like him in the 800.

Matthew Turner (90) – Obviously can run as tight marks indicate. Season has been patchy at best with a 8th 800m at Maryborough & 800m Finalist at Rye and Daylesford. Most recent mile form is  15th at Ringwood, 24th at Stonnington, Did run a nice 5th at Trinity, 1600m (4.26 off 60). Not good enough at present for these.

Bradley White (120) – No. One of the many amateur boys that try to play pro running but don’t really get it. Last year was 22nd in B/M Mile at Stawell and 26th in 2 mile. If he is better form then may push top 20 but can’t see him doing much more than that.

Arron Downs (165) – Good season having won 1600m Women’s/Vets (4.38 off 70) at Rye and at Burramine (1600m Open 4.20 off 155), 2nd 3200m at Wangaratta  & 3rd at Stonnington Mile & Bendigo Frontmarkers Mile. Will be top 8 but prefer others for win.

James Clarke (180) – Improving runner who has run 2nd Bendigo 800 Fortmarkers & 3rd Burramine 800. Mile form is average with best finish this year being a 19th at Bendigo Frontmarkers. No for me.

Justin Noonan (195) – No form to speak of only having run a handful of time this year. 10th at Geelong, 12th at Rye & 13th at Trinity is only mile form this year. No for me.

Ian Cayzer (145) – Little form this year. Was a finalist at Bendigo is 800m. Mile form average 9th at Euroa, 14th at Maribyrnong, 18th at Ringwood & 22nd at Avondale Heights. No at this stage.

Andrew "Spaceman" Thomas (180) – Hardly run this year but has scored a win in Trinity Mile (4:23 off 155) and ran a nice 4th at Northcote. Unsure if injury or something else has got the better of him. Will need to improve a lot to run the low 4:00 needed to win this. A unknown but with a 8th on the weekend (4:09 off 145 (35 metre lift for Stawell) should go close to breaking 4:00 and will go close for the win (Top 4).

David Spence (135) – Another ‘pro’ runner who is always firing at this time of year. In good knick with a classy 4th in Bendigo Backies Mile (4.03 off 130), 1st Ballarat Mile, 3rd Maribyrnong Mile, 1st Wangaratta 800m, 2nd Ballarat 3200m, 3rd Rye 800, 3rd VRTA 3200m, 2nd Warrnambool 3200m. As consistent as they come. Really like him in the 3200. Should go top 8.

Ashley Cowan (170) – Really good season with wins in 800m U/20 Maryborough & Burramine & 1600m Novice Geelong. Mile form been good too with  2nd Trinity & Avondale Heights Miles, 4th Terang, Ararat & Burramine Miles. Think he may find the big boys a bit quick but will be a learning experience. Sneaky top 8 chance.

Joel Donnar (145) – Classy under age athlete with wins in Northcote 800 Open & 800 Backmarkers Bendigo. Mile form been ok with 5th at both Daylesford & Stonnington Miles & 6th Maryborough Mile. Top 8 for sure.

Jacob Nolan (165) – Not for me this year. Under age athlete with no form over mile to speak off. Was a finalist in 800 U/20 Maribyrnong, VRTA & Avondale Heights & 400 U/20 Wangaratta, with only form in mile being an 8th at St Albans in the Novice Mile and a 11th at Bendigo in the Frontmarkers. Initial thought was that he would be struggling a long way out but a 13th at Ringwood taking some big sclaps suggests he wont be that for off.

Ashley Humphrey (130) – No exposed VAL form to speak of this year and will be first run for the league. Is a quality athlete though and has been seen trawling around the melb amateur scene this year. Has ran a solid 2.28 1000m and a 1.53 800 can run. Not for me though.

James Deane (130) – The man with the movie star name and movie star looks. What hasn’t this man done. Has been a slow year to date but this man rarely goes through a year without a win. Is tough as nails and will be top 8. Has run a 2nd at Bendigo (Fronties) and 5th at Marybyrnong & Euroa. Won’t win but will look a winner at some stage.

Andrew Patten (70) – No form this year for a great runner who has blown them away in past seasons. Best finish in miles for the year have been 21st at Geelong and Avondale. Tough to see a champion bloke and star runner not figuring in finishes. Will be back.

Matt Grant (160) – Not a lot of form to speak of this year but a gutsy runner. Has stepped up in distance a little this year to run some miles and is starting to get there. His 7th backmarkers Bendigo 1600 was impressive as well as a 7th at Ballarat 1600m. Will be top 8.

Ian Burrows (165) – My spies tell me may be the one to look out for after a big win in 3200 at Stawell last season and they may be onto something after a 3rd art Ringwood. 7th Albury-Wodonga & Rye 1600, 8th St Albans 1600, 8th Ballarat 3200m, 6th Maribyrnong, 9th Bendigo 1600. Form lines don’t look great. Umpiring commitments will determine if runs. (A lazy yellow one will pass the hands with the bookies just incase).

Andy Axford (80) – One of the classiest looking runners I have ever seen run. Performances have potential to be a little sporadic but on his day can beat anyone. Would like to see him have a real crack at the 800 as think he could cause some damage. Would be disappointed with 4:03 in heat of 1500 at nationals and looking to make ammends. Top 8 at best for me.

Douglas Hamerlock (75) – Another class runner probably better suited to the 3200 or the winter season. 17th in Mile last year off 50. Will go better this year but not much better.

Matt Axford (110) – as per brother’s description above. Best chance in the 800.

Phillip O’Brien (155) – Breakout year for Phil with win at Albury-Wodonga 1600,  2nd Maryborough & Daylesford Mile, 3rd Terang 1600, 3rd 3200 Warrnambool, 3rd Euroa Mile. Really consistent all year. Won’t win but may be top ten.

Brenton Rowe (0) – Just a lazy 4.01 off scratch to run 2nd at Bendigo and a 8.57 for the win at Ballarat 3200m. Depending on what he focuses on come Stawell win have a huge bearing on this race. You would think the bright lights of the Herb may come calling but if doubles up watch out frontmarkers. Nice run at nationals to go top 3 behind Risely and Gregson. If races top 3.

Alex Bacalja (110) – 8th Warragul 1600 , 6th Trinity 1600, 1st Euroa 1600, 2nd 1600m Maribyrnong, 2nd 800m Backies Bendigo. IS starting to run very nicely. Always seems to come good at the right time of year. Has he gone to early winning at the weekend?? Think he may have having struggled at Ringwood. Has slipped from Top 5 for me.

Justin Murphy (105) – 6th Northcote 1600, 5th Bendigo 300m Vets, 3rd Bendigo 1600m Backies (4.02 off 105), 2nd 1600m W/V Ballarat. Not so keen post weekend form at Ringwood when 12th in the Mile. Will keep money in pocket for him in this race. Race at Bendigo was a cracker for an over 35 athlete. Top 10

Michael Preece (110) – 9th 800 Maryborough, Final 800 U/20 VRTA, 5th 1600m Backies Bendigo (4.04 off 105). Can obviously run as evidence by Bendigo run. Not sure about this race though maybe next year if he can keep powder dry. Top 8.

Phil Noden (180) – 11th VRTA 1600 W/V, 7th 1600 Euroa, 6th 800m Final Burramine. No.

David Haigh (150) – 4th 800  & 1600 Maryborough, 1st Stonnington Mile, 2nd 400 Trinity, 1st Avondale Heights 800, 3rd Albury-Wodonga 1600, 1st St Albans 800, 2nd Rye 800, 1st Terang 800. What has this bloke not done this season. Stonnington win probably has him out of this one but will go top 10.

Tim Earle (110) – A class athlete who can do anything on his day. Podiumed in this race last year and dare I say is reaching that level again this year. Earlier win in the year at Ararat and Maryborough may hurt chances though but will be top 8. This year was1st 800 Maryborough, 1st 1600 Ararat, 1st Flagstaff Hill Mile and always seems to be on a podium somewhere. Top 8.

Craig Harris (180) - No wins to date this season but form has been ok prticularily over 800. 800 Results have been a 2nd at St Albans, 4th at Daylesford & Avondale Heights, 6th at Rye and a 8th at Bendigo. Best mile form has been a 7th at Stonninton and a 11th at Maribyrnong. Not this year but maybe final in the 800.

James Parker (150) - Under age athlete who will struggle againgst this lot. Has recorded a couple of 2nd places in u/20 800 events this season. Only open mile this year was a 32nd at Northcote. No.

Indiana Cooper(175) - U/20 athlete who has shown some form over the shorter distance of 800with 2 6ths and a 8th in his own age group. Best mile form has been a 15th at Ballarat and Ringwood and 16th at Stonnington. Will feature around same places come stawell.

Cameron Yorke (175) - Veteran runner who has shown form over 300m this season with a win at Warragul and 2nd at VRTA. No form over mile with best mile run for the year being a 9th at Ringwood. Not at the moment.

Carl McMeel (195) - Has run sparingly this year buit form has been ok. Has a 6th at Terang 1600, 7th at Warnambool 3200 & 11th at Ararat 1600. These will be too classy but will run on well.



Last edited by Red leg on Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:20 pm; edited 4 times in total (Reason for editing : Added Handicaps, Updated Form, Added Competitors)

2 Re: Stawell 1600m Backmarkers Formguide on Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:07 am

MOB

avatar
ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Nice Summary Red leg. Well Done. It is not easy knowing the form across both states, especially with detailed SAAL results being so scarce. The only qualification I'll make is to Gary Turner. I understand he is the brother of Matthew and after previously being 200 mtrs off the pace at his previous 2 runs, he has improved 30 seconds to come 5th at Euroa. Moves nicely and watch this space.

I look forward to your 3200 form guide.

3 Re: Stawell 1600m Backmarkers Formguide on Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:44 am

Red leg


Thanks MOB will update.

4 Re: Stawell 1600m Backmarkers Formguide on Fri Mar 28, 2014 11:46 am

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
A little like the great J.Riewoldt before me, I'm breaking the media ban imposed upon me.
A fantastic Form Guide Red Leg. Clearly well researched and thought through.

A couple of comments:
1. Your knowledge of interstate runners is excellent. However, if the S.A boys are not adjusted to take into account the differences in mile across the two states, then it is all over. The cake, biscuits, sweets, milk and any other goodies on the table will all be heading over the border.
2. You have 11 runners tipped to be top 8 or better. This will be mathematically difficult.
3. If Rowe runs then the field will need to be lifted 20 or 25 again. I wonder how this might affect the result as the winner will run sub 3:56. Bet the house on that.
4. Lots of ‘kids’ in this field. This is great. Earle, Axford, O’Brien, Nolan, Donnar, Cowan, plus others. At least one of these will place. Dizzy would love to see a cumulative relay result. Top 4 under 23years of age runners vs top 4 over 35yrs runners. My money’s on the over 35s.

5 Re: Stawell 1600m Backmarkers Formguide on Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:03 pm

Red leg


Thanks Dizz. Not going to coment on hadicaps will leave that to the handicappers to work out.

In regards to predictions Maths was never really my strong point.

Top 4 Over 35's will take the cake for sure.

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