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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Camden tips

Camden tips

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1 Camden tips on Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:46 pm

The Morphy Mongrel

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What about an entry list for Camden?
Not knowing the entries hard to come up with a tip.

Going on the 4's this season and the Marion 3, Andrew Brown looks hard to beat. I think Camden's best chance. Only doubt is he will have around 30/32 and that's normally not enough for a Camden runner.  Razz Franky likes them off 36 to 40.

2 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:16 am

youngy

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I think you are referring to Ashley Brown.

Based on the ease of the Marion 300m win and he goes up more than any other athlete to his 400m mark, he should start favourite.

Just for the record - The last five Camden athletes to win the Camden Classic have come off - 34, 34, 36, 38, 40.

So if he was to win on Sunday, Brown will do so from the tightest mark (32m) a Camden runner has won off in the last 25 years.


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"Let's Go While We're Young"

3 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:33 am

Mick The Rex

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If it's a tip you want.......... Surely you can't go past inside evens Stevens!

Super impressive in winning Albury Gift off 5m on the weekend, has a handicap of 18m in 400m in Vic, if his handicap is similar in SA then he'd be my tip?

4 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:39 am

racingmania


Good call Mick.
Best nickname ever for an athlete who's done what this guy has done in a debut year.

INSIDE EVENS STEVENS.
If the bookie's there, I'll be getting on the man we call INSIDE EVENS.

5 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:46 am

S.hill


Well hopefully the bookies don't read this forum because you have ruined his odds now! You're supposed to keep it quite.

6 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 10:14 am

racingmania


c judd
The bookie would be well aware of all the chances. InsideEvens, Brown, Wright, Cousins, Bryce W, Clay W, Marantelli among others. This forum won't change things.

7 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 10:46 am

S.hill


I'm not being serious racing mania
I'm aware they would be fully aware of what's going on
Without seeing the handicaps yet I'm not making a tip

8 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 12:57 pm

Whispers


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Im very new to this caper !!!  but can someone explain to me
A Robb runs 56.30 off 42 at Henley and was penalised 2m and now runs off 40 for the Camden event.
Whilst her sister K Robb ran 53.84 off 27 at Sacred Heart and wasnt penalised and remains on 27 for the Camden event.
A Robb was penalised the 2m for her next 400m start at SHC so her recent wins cant be given as reasons for her penalty.
Seems to me that theres no consistancy.
Perhaps someone out there can explain the reason to me.



Last edited by Whispers on Wed Jan 29, 2014 12:58 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : spelling)

9 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:11 pm

Double Jeopardy


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Perhaps another example of why a 'system' based handicap structure works best. The VAL system still allows for discretion when necessary.

The handicaps are on the SAAL website. Any new opinions after looking at the marks? Will heat draws be released in the lead up to Sunday?

10 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 1:37 pm

S.hill


Sacred heart can't have been looked at because Ashley brown didn't get pulled for winning that 400m?

11 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:16 pm

The Morphy Mongrel

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Brown off 32 too good to be off that mark. Should win.
Khudoshin, Killmier Byce should be around the mark.
Khudoshin should have won by now off 25. 24 is still a good mark for him.
Bryce Watkins is a better 4 runner than last year, ran 48.7 the other day.
Killmier has a great mark for a 1:50 800 runner. Can't see how he can't run 47.5 off 25.
Inside Evens sheer class and should final.
Ben Wright 3rd last year, keeps last years mark
Marantelli will sneak in off 26.
Clay will get a soft heat to final. Will look good for 300 but die in the straight. Like last year.


Brown
Khudoshin
B Watkins
Killmier
Inside Evens
Wright
Marantelli
C Watkins

12 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 5:41 pm

Rookie Error


Khudoshin Would be a Big Fvaourite IMO. Brown probably next best on back of 300m run last week. Coote looks like hes been doing some longer stuff on the VAL circuit perhaps with Intentions of getting some distance in the legs for this/bendigo? And Keenan has a massive mark - 36m.

interestingly ben Wright ran third off 29m last year, and also ran third off 27m in Bendigo. Seems to be a very hard working runner - i'm sure many would like to see him win it.

Cracking run from the back in the 800 at Marion, and would have been eyeing this off.

For memory Brighton handicaps were reinstated for Camden last year, so the sacred heart lack of pull make sense.

13 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:52 pm

Whispers


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Rookie , your memory is as good as my 99 year old grand mother.
Last year Amy Robb won Brighton off 42 ,went back to 40 for Camden and ran second.
Simon Thomson won Brighton off 42 and the limit for the Classic is 40 so would have had to go back to that if he ran ,not sure if he did.
So Rookie ,no doubt your last names ERROR ,just let your fingers do the walking when you start putting up facts.

14 Re: Camden tips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:42 pm

youngy

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Simon Thompson won the 400m at Brighton in 2012 off 42m and received a 2m penalty. His 2013 Camden mark of 40m reflected the Brighton penalty. *

In November, Simon ran at Henley off 40m so the penalty has carried into this season. He hasn't gone 'back' to 40m for Camden because of the limit. 40m is his mark.

By the way Simon didn't run 2nd in the Camden Classic, so inadvertently Whispers you have highlighted something that seems incredibly generous. How does one run 2nd in the Women's Classic off 40m and get a lift for Henley? It had to be an error and she should never have run off 42 at Henley.

If Amy Robb ran 2nd off 40m in 2013 and has had another win since, albeit off 42m, she's extremely lucky to be off 40m for this year's Classic. Good luck to her, she should be around the mark again.

Ie: 2nd place in the Camden Classic (Killmier, Khudoshin) attracts a 1m penalty. Surprised the same doesn't occur in the women's.


* The Camden limit is 40m, so regardless of the Brighton win he had to come back to 40m anyway. Thanks to the private email for pointing this out!


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15 Re: Camden tips on Thu Jan 30, 2014 9:04 am

Admin

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Camden Classic Form Guide should be up later this afternoon.

As per usual - it will be for members only for a day or so.

http://protrack.easyforumlive.com

16 Re: Camden tips on Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:09 am

Whispers


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Whispers thinks these could be the ones on what will be a really hard day for the chasers

A BROWN..home track and in form ,deserves to be one of the favourites.
ROBERT KEENAN..not to many Vics get the luxury of this mark,only needs to be near his best to pay for his trip over
BEN WRIGHT..been in almost everything this season and will make his presence felt.
CONNER VERRALL..off a hard mark for this youngster but his run in the Brighton 300m where he was checked twice in running but still would have won in another two metres cant be dismissed, go and watch the Brighton videos and make up your own mind.
HARRY MAY..been turning up for a couple of years now and is always runs a big race, maybe not the right coach to take it out but has the ability alone to be there at the right time.
SAM RUSSELL.. doesnt hold back in his races and will be attacking right from the word go.Coach churns out distance runners so should be able to back up.
Josh Dawkins..kids got a lot of ticker and was very disappointed with his effort at the Bay 550m when he fell, will be interesting at the Calcutta as his coach is reknown for putting his money where his mouth is.

I just think two really hard 400m runs in only one hour in 40 degree heat is going to work against the quality backmakers.

17 Re: Camden tips on Thu Jan 30, 2014 11:02 am

Whispers


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Other tips

Womens 400m..Mattingly,Buckley,A Robb
120m Gift..Gross,Schutz,Houlihan
120m W..Cavouras,McHugh,Orman
800m Novice ..Girolamo,Kane,Ponury
1600m..Marantelli,Grant,Kitto

Whispers tip for the Womens 120m is someone who lost more time between heat and final than Cibich yet was awarded with a .5m lift.
Yes I know everyone lost time because of the windy conditions but this person lost more time than the others

18 over35s 400m analysis for Whispers on Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:28 pm

Stokesy

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If the SAAL had a transparent handicapping system, if the SAAL results were available online with decent query facilities ... if if if if if if ...

Meanwhile, by way of granting a special request to a special person, Whispers that means you, here is a look at this year's marks compared to last year's marks.

No sign of Brian Witty this year.

Camden marks this year
400m Over 35
1 Michael Hane 16.00 m
2 Amin Chehade 18.00 m
3 David Miller 20.00 m
4 Steven Wilson 22.00 m
5 Daniel Flesfadar 24.00 m
6 Christopher Simpson 24.00 m
7 Mark Hipworth 26.00 m
8 Ali Saliu 26.00 m
9 Christopher Brown 28.00 m
10 Salvador Jurado 28.00 m
11 Ross Nitschke 28.00 m
12 Andrew Buttery 30.00 m
13 David Wilczek 30.00 m
14 Richard McMahon 32.00 m
15 Ben Martin 35.00 m
16 Michael Cassidy 38.00 m
17 Shane Grimwade 38.00 m
18 Peter Biggs 40.00 m
19 Nathan Hoare 40.00 m
20 Grant Oates 40.00 m
21 Cameron White 40.00 m
22 Bryan Roberts 42.00 m
23 Mark Worthing 42.00 m
24 Chris Dimitrak 48.00 m
25 Alex Jefferies 48.00 m
26 Geoff Troiano 48.00 m
27 Peter Brennan 51.00 m
28 Mick Abbott 53.00 m
29 Eugene DeVizio 58.00 m
30 Ross Hill-Brown 59.00 m
31 Mark Barnett 62.00 m
32 Daniel Tregenza 62.00 m
33 John Turner 62.00 m
34 David Jelfs 66.00 m
35 Amanda Jurado 68.00 m
36 Darcy Cheney 75.00 m
37 Mark Howson 75.00 m
38 Trudy Schrapel 78.00 m
39 Ron Axford 80.00 m
40 John Hewton 86.00 m
41 Sue Turner 88.00 m
42 Debbie DeVizio 94.00 m
43 Lyn Peake 98.00 m
44 Cheryl Zeuner 102.00 m



camden marks last year
400m Over 35
Name Handicap
Duncan Tippins 0.00 m
Amin Chehade 8.00 m
Ali Saliu 20.00 m
Steven Wilson 22.00 m
Daniel Flesfadar 24.00 m
Ross Nitschke 24.00 m
Mark Hipworth 26.00 m
David Miller 26.00 m
Andrew Wright 26.00 m
Shane Grimwade 28.00 m
Salvador Jurado 28.00 m
Nathan Hoare 30.00 m
Richard McMahon 30.00 m
David Wilczek 32.00 m
Steve Butler 33.00 m
Steven Jones 38.00 m
Anthony Booth 40.00 m
graham harris 40.00 m
Grant Oates 40.00 m
Cameron White 40.00 m
Michael Cassidy 42.00 m
Brendan Golden 42.00 m
Chris Dimitrak 45.00 m
Peter Biggs 48.00 m
Geoff Troiano 48.00 m
Richard Everson 50.00 m
Rafal Staporski 50.00 m
Mick Abbott 51.00 m
Eugene DeVizio 55.00 m
Peter Brennan 56.00 m
Ross Hill-Brown 57.00 m
Mark Barnett 59.00 m
Catherine Cavouras 60.00 m
Ray Earle 60.00 m
Daniel Tregenza 60.00 m
John Turner 60.00 m
Jackie Chehade 70.00 m
Darcy Cheney 74.00 m
Trudy Schrapel 74.00 m
Ron Axford 76.00 m
Mark Howson 76.00 m
Ian Reddaway 86.00 m
Sue Turner 86.00 m
Debbie DeVizio 92.00 m
Brian Witty 92.00 m
Cheryl Zeuner 108.00 m
Felicity Alexander 9,999.00 m
Lisa Attenborough 9,999.00 m
George Diakomichalis 9,999.00 m
John Hewton 9,999.00 m


camden marks this year compared with last year
400m Over 35
1 Michael Hane 16.00 m this year not listed last year
2 Amin Chehade 18.00 m this year compared with 8m last year = plus 10m ***
3 David Miller 20.00 m this year compared with 26m last year = minus 6m
4 Steven Wilson 22.00 m this year compared with 22m last year = same
5 Daniel Flesfadar 24.00 m this year compared with 24m last year = same
6 Christopher Simpson 24.00 m this year not listed last year
7 Mark Hipworth 26.00 m this year compared with 26m last year = same
8 Ali Saliu 26.00 m this year compared with 20m last year = plus 6m
9 Christopher Brown 28.00 m this year not listed last year
10 Salvador Jurado 28.00 m this year compared with 28m last year = same
11 Ross Nitschke 28.00 m this year compared with 76m last year = plus 4m
12 Andrew Buttery 30.00 m this year not listed last year
13 David Wilczek 30.00 m this year compared with 32m last year = minus 2m
14 Richard McMahon 32.00 m this year compared with 30m last year = plus 2m
15 Ben Martin 35.00 m this year not listed last year
16 Michael Cassidy 38.00 m this year compared with 42m last year = minus 4m
17 Shane Grimwade 38.00 m this year compared with 28m last year = plus 10m ***
18 Peter Biggs 40.00 m this year compared with 48m last year = minus 8m
19 Nathan Hoare 40.00 m this year compared with 30m last year = plus 10m ***
20 Grant Oates 40.00 m this year compared with 40m last year = same
21 Cameron White 40.00 m this year compared with 40m last year = same
22 Bryan Roberts 42.00 m this year not listed last year
23 Mark Worthing 42.00 m this year not listed last year
24 Chris Dimitrak 48.00 m compared with 45m last year = plus 3m
25 Alex Jefferies 48.00 m this year not listed last year
26 Geoff Troiano 48.00 m this year compared with 48m last year = same
27 Peter Brennan 51.00 m this year compared with 56m last year = minus 5m
28 Mick Abbott 53.00 m this year compared with 51m last year = plus 2m
29 Eugene DeVizio 58.00 m this year compared with 58m last year = plus 3m
30 Ross Hill-Brown 59.00 m this year compared with 57m last year = plus 2m
31 Mark Barnett 62.00 m this year compared with 59m last year = plus 3m
32 Daniel Tregenza 62.00 m this year compared with 60m last year = plus 2m
33 John Turner 62.00 m this year compared with 60m last year = plus 2m
34 David Jelfs 66.00 m this year not listed last year
35 Amanda Jurado 68.00 m this year not listed last year
36 Darcy Cheney 75.00 m this year compared with 74m last year = plus 1m
37 Mark Howson 75.00 m this year compared with 76m last year = minus 1m
38 Trudy Schrapel 78.00 m this year compared with 74m last year = plus 4m
39 Ron Axford 80.00 m this year compared with 76m last year = plus 4m
40 John Hewton 86.00 m this year compared with ??? m last year = ???
41 Sue Turner 88.00 m this year compared with 86m last year = plus 2m
42 Debbie DeVizio 94.00 m this year compared with 920m last year = plus 2m
43 Lyn Peake 98.00 m this year not listed last year
44 Cheryl Zeuner 102.00 m this year compared with 108m last year = minus 6m


Last Year
Over 35's 400m FINAL
1 Geoff Troiano 48 = same
2 David Wilczek 32 = minus 2m
3 Peter Brennan 56 = minus 5m
4 Salvador Jurado 28 = same
5 Ross Hill-Brown 57 = plus 2m
6 David Miller 26 = minus 6m

19 Re: Camden tips on Thu Jan 30, 2014 2:11 pm

Whispers


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Thanks Stoksy ,wasnt sure I had correct information.
Troiano ran the second fastest time and third fastest time in heat and final  of all the Over 35s, WINS the event and stays on the same mark.
You can only run off the mark you are given but Geoff must think Easter Bunnys come early.

20 Re: Camden tips on Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:53 am

The Morphy Mongrel

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Camden Heat Tips
Heat 1
SandersonMilera
C Watkins
Girolamo

Heat 2
Khudoshin
Tohl
Hargreaves

Heat 3
B Watkins
Marantelli
Long-Scafidi

Heat 4
Remphrey
Clayton
Schutz

Heat 5
Wright
Cousins
Gook

Heat 6
Brown
Spencer
Dawkins

Heat 7
Stevens
May
Palmer

Final
C Watkins - fastest 2nd
B Watkins
Stevens
Remphrey
SandersonMilera
Khudoshin
Wright
Brown

Brown wins easy. Has got a very easy heat so won't have to work hard in the heat like the others.
In the final doesn't have to go round one runner. Controls it out front.
Only way he can lose if he chokes.

21 Re: Camden tips on Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:03 am

The Morphy Mongrel

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Womens Heat Tips
Heat 1
K Robb
Cavouras
Jury

Heat 2
Hodge
Openshaw
Glouftsis

Heat 3
DeBellis
McHugh
Kelly

Heat 4
A Robb
Mattingly
Mollica

Final
Hodge
K Robb
Mattingly
Cavouras
A Robb
Openshaw
DeBellis
McHugh

Tip
A Robb to win. DeBellis 2nd K Robb 3rd.

22 Camden Stats on Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:10 am

youngy

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Since 2001 there's been 13 Camden Classics producing 99 finalists. Below is a list of trainers and the number of finalists and the wins in brackets. There have been 29 different coaches to produce at least one finalist since 2001. YGTS has 22 but none in the last three years. Interestingly John Henry as an interstate coach is second on the list with 10 finalists and 2 wins - Matt Hargreaves twice.



Camden Finalists
COACH TOTAL (Wins)
A POUNSETT 1
Ali SALIU 1
A TOHL 6
B GOLDEN 5 (1)
B NEIL * 4
B STEVENS 2
B TAMMO 1
D PALMER (S/T) 2 (1)
D TONKIN * 3 (1)
F MCHUGH 5 (2)
G THOMPSON 2 (1)
J HENRY (V) 10 (2)
J LERAY 2
K PATCHING * 1
M ARNOLD (V) 1
M BUCKLER 3
M HANE 2
M HIPWORTH (V) 2
M HOWARD (V) 1
P BRENNAN * 1
P YOUNG 22 (4)
R BEDNALL* 1
R MANTHEY * 4
R WILSON 2
S BUTLER 9
S LAWSON (V) 1 (1)
S MILLER 2
T HOLLAND * 2
T SCHREIER 1
Total: 99 (13)

Coaches with an asterisk are no longer coaching.


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23 Re: Camden tips on Mon Feb 03, 2014 7:58 am

Whispers


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Whispers wrote:Im very new to this caper !!!  but can someone explain to me
A Robb runs 56.30 off 42  at Henley and was penalised 2m and now runs off 40 for the Camden event.
Whilst her sister K Robb ran 53.84 off 27 at Sacred Heart and wasnt penalised and remains on 27 for the Camden event.
A Robb was penalised the 2m for her next 400m start at SHC so her recent wins cant be given as reasons for her penalty.
Seems to me that theres no consistancy.
Perhaps someone out there can explain the reason to me.


For the second time in consecative years A Robb has won a 400m during the season and been pulled 2m for Camden and MAYBE costing her a Camden Classic.
May I suggest with tongue in cheek ,that Amy wins the 400m at SHC close to net time to escape the 2m penalty.

24 Re: Camden tips on Tue Feb 04, 2014 1:17 pm

youngy

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I don't get your logic Whispers. You are essentially arguing that Amy Robb should have run off 42m at Camden. That's a 2m lift on her 2013 mark - from which she ran 2nd, beating everyone bar the winner Yasmin Openshaw.

2013 Women's Classic FINAL
1 Yasmin Openshaw 49
2 Amy Robb 40
3 Lucy Buckley 34
4 Tayce Fry 60
5 L J Hilditch Vic 36
6 Katherine Robb 27
7 Hettie Driscoll 50
8 Andrea Di Paolo 26
Time: 54.64e

So from the above - Hilditch & DiPaolo did not run in 2014. Openshaw went back the obligatory 6m for winning. The rest stayed where they were, apart from Tayce Fry who has carries a 2m penalty since winning the Hectorville 400 last year. Tayce ran from 58m in 2014.

Amy Robb met Buckley, K Robb & Driscoll the same for beating them last year. Then there is of course the many others who didn't make the 2013 final.

How you expected Amy Robb to be 2m better off in 2014 than 2013 is mind boggling.

Katherine Robb couldn't beat Amy at the marks last year when they were in the same squad. Katherine went to a squad with a stronger endurance focus and the result was for all to see on Sunday.

The other thing is -- Buckley & Driscoll also beat Amy Robb off exactly the same marks as last season.  It wouldn't have mattered if she had run off 42m - Amy Robb was well out of the contest this year.

It certainly wasn't the handicapper's fault Amy Robb didn't win Camden.


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25 Re: Camden tips on Tue Feb 04, 2014 3:13 pm

Whispers


ProTrack Star
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No Youngy you have missed the point.
Its not about Amy Robb being pulled 2m its all about Katherine Robb not being pulled.
History shows that its a consistant pull of 2m for winning a womens 400m, I have no problem with that, keep running and you will get the 2 m back ,no problem with that either.
The problem ,the way I see it, is Kathrine Robb won SHC in a time of 53.84 off 27, yes 53.84 of 27 which would be more than competative in any Womens Camden Classic.
The handicapper chose not to penalie Katherine 2m ,I find it hard to believe he wouldnt have done it .Do we now expect SHC to be penalty free 400m even if we go close to ceiling.
If the handicapper wasnt going to penalise K Robb how could the women ,A Robb ,Driscoll,De Bellis,Buckley who she met in the final at Camden expect to beat her when they were beaten so convincingly at SHC.
Wind the clock forward 12 months and I would expect any girl who wins SHC 400m and gets pulled 2m would have a very good case to take to the appeals committee.As this was the first 400m Womens event a preceedance has been set.
I just used A Robb as an example of comparison of the inconsistancy of handicapping of Women 400m events My argument was K Robbs non penalty and which I believe was an oversight and it has all been vindicated by her success last Sunday.

26 Re: Camden tips on Tue Feb 04, 2014 3:40 pm

Whispers


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Also noticed that the Mens winner at SHC didnt get penalised either.
So from that if you are aiming for the Camden 400s, we can gather its okay to win at SHC but dont win at Henley.

27 Re: Camden tips on Tue Feb 04, 2014 3:58 pm

youngy

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I agree with you in principle about Katherine Robb having a generous mark....for her ability.

But you did suggest that Amy Robb may have lost Camden because of it - that's the part I disagreed with.

I thought Katherine Robb was a certainty for the Women's Classic. Katherine had recently broken 57secs. Similar to Caitlin Stanley (Handicapper gifted her a Camden Classic' lifting her to 27m after she had just run a 55sec PB).

I said to a few people before the event including Leon Burckhardt that I thought Katherine Robb would win because she had got back to sub 57sec range - which is bread & butter for someone of her talent. You don't need to be Einstein to work out a 56s athlete running off 27m is going to go inside 54secs on a grass track.

My thoughts were that Katherine Robb had got into a rut for quite a few years and had not been bothered to do the work necessary. She was just wasting her talent. She needed a significant paradigm shift. To her credit she did something about it before it became too late.

In my opinion, Robb has always had more talent for 400m than Leanne Hodge - and Hodge runs off 18m.

Really hope this is the catalyst for Katherine to run a PB before the end of the season.

There's several 400m type athletes in SA meandering through each year with no direction or purpose and don't seem to be bothered to adopt the change that Katherine did. So kudos to her.


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