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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Bendigo Formguide - Backmarkers Mile

Bendigo Formguide - Backmarkers Mile

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1 Bendigo Formguide - Backmarkers Mile on Wed Mar 06, 2013 7:35 pm

Double Jeopardy


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
This Sunday is the Bendigo Mile. That’s right folks, we’re going old school and racing over the traditional mile distance. I always said the metric system wouldn’t kick on.

Anyway, a whopping $5k is up for grabs and some of the best distance runners around will front up and have a dip at the big money. Consider this your one stop shop for everything you need to know about one of the biggest distance races of the season.

Reubin Kosgei (0m) PB: 3.37.24
The 2000 Steeplechase Olympic champion has a brilliant 1500m PB next to his name. Since moving to Australia he has primarily focussed on the longer stuff but he’s still more than handy over the Mile. Had two runs in the pros for a 2nd at Gippsland last season and a Top 10 at Stonnington last month. Will be better for those experiences and won’t have to do all the work himself with the likes of Threlfall and Fawthorpe not too far away. Must respect and could win if the guys near the front don’t take it out hard.
Brady Threlfall (20m) PB: 3.53.55
Another who seems to be focussing on the longer stuff. Don’t believe he’s raced over anything shorter than 5k since his Herb Hedemann win last season 4.00 (85m). Previous winner of this race, but that was off a handicap of 85m. He’s 1500m PB highlights that he might be a little out of his depth with those around him. However, he’s a proven performer in the ‘pros’ so you can guarantee he’ll run up to that PB for his hometown race.
Tom Fawthorpe (35m) PB: 3.46.45
Two previous runs in professional ranks, taking out the St. Bernard’s 800m off 24m on debut and well beaten in the 2009 Hedemann off 50m. Since that time he’s improved his 1500s considerably (3.46.45 PB) and therefore should be respected. Led the Victorian Mile Championships for three laps before tiring last month (4th in 4.13.4) and ran 3.56.46 to take out a heat of the Vic Champs last week. Didn’t start the final so might be injured? Late start to the season means he probably isn’t in PB shape but if he’s anywhere near it will be very hard to beat.
Josh Nolan (45m) PB: 4.02.45
Rarely runs 1500s in amateur competition so he’s PB is about as relevant as Longmuir’s. Two time winner of this race, including last year’s event (4.03 off 75m). Well beaten in his only mile run so far this season at Albury but marked a return to form with a slashing victory in the 800m at Ballarat. Like Brady, you can guarantee the local boy will run up to his very best for this event. Doubt he’ll be winning off 45m though.
Andrew Patten (45m) PB: N/A
Produced one of the runs of the season to defend his Stonnington Mile title in a thrilling race. Ran 2nd in this event last year (4.03 off 75m) but is now back 30m on that handicap. Is really running into some form and seems to get better each time his handicap is reduced. Like Nolan, 45m seems too big an ask though.
Tyson Mahon (65m) PB: 3.52.4
You might say he’s PB from 2002 (as a 15 yr old) isn’t relevant. But he’s 3.52.9 last week in a heat of the Vic Champs is very relevant and makes him one of the favourites for this event. Looks to have worked out how to run a ‘pro’ race and produced his best VAL run last month at Stonnington (7th).
Jeremy Baker (70m) PB: N/A
This entry has DJ a little rattled. Only one run shows up in the VAL search engine. A 4.20 off 75m in the 2007 Hedemann. Google doesn’t provide much more information. Might be a former Bendigo boy looking for cheap entry into the Madison.
Harry Smithers (75m) PB: 3.54.24
Had a few runs with the VAL and is well off on marks given he’s not a week in, week out VAL competitor. Last VAL run was his 4th placing (4.01 off 95m) in last year’s Hedemann. Raced in the same Vic Champs heat as Mara last week and just pipped him (3.59.24 vs 3.59.36) so lines up favourably against his VAL competitors.
Michael Marantelli (75m) PB: 3.54.9
Perennial bridesmaid so far this season. Raced five 1600s for five 2nds (Bay Sheffield Select, Devonport, Burnie, Albury & Stonnington). This is likely to be even faster than those races so will need to improve. 3.54.9 PB at AV Shield Final suggests he is up to it off this handicap but will need to produce the finishing kick that has eluded him if he is to break through here. Beaten by Smithers off level marks in last year’s Hedemann and at the Vic Champs over 1500m last week so will need to use his ‘pro’ racing experience if he is to turn the tables here.
Trent Lowry (80m) PB: N/A
Last season’s Stawell Backmarkers 1600m winner in 3.58.9 (135m) having his first start over 1600m this season. Back a considerable distance on that win but one gets the feeling he has improved a fair bit since then. Moved up north in January so it will be interesting to see how fit he has kept himself since then. Obviously rates his chances if he’s coming down just for this race.
Justin Rinaldi (95m) PB: 3.40.6
PB says it’s all over, reality says he’ll struggle. Shows the occasional glimpse of that 3.40 ability but age is starting to catch up with him and seems to be better suited to something a little shorter these days.
Luke Searle (95m) PB: 4.11.57
Well beaten at Stonnington and appears to be a long way off his best at the moment. Prefer in something longer.
Cameron Clayton (100m) PB: 4.00.03
His PB puts him right in the race but like Rinaldi he seems to be better suited to something a little shorter. If he’s done the distance work for it he could surprise but not a winning chance in DJ’s eyes.
Justin Martinez (100m) PB: N/A
Has run the odd VAL race over the last few years but yet to reach a handicap he’ll be competitive off.
Alex Bacalja (115m) PB: N/A
The form distance runner on the VAL circuit at present. A number of top 10s so far this season over 1600m. Two ‘free hit’ victories (St. Bernard’s 1k & Noble Park 2k) is another sign he’s one to watch. Top performance over 1600m was in 2010 when he ran 4.00 off 130m to come 2nd in the Stawell Backies. Obviously needs to be going better than that but I believe he is.
Adrian Phelan (115m) PB: 4.09.22
Gone quick over the 1600m in the past, having won at Stawell in 2011 (3.58 off 185m). 70m back on that run is a big ask. No doubt he’s improved but not to the extent required to feature here.
Daniel Lawlor (120m) PB: N/A
Ran 5th last year (4.05 off 155m) before running 6th at Stawell (4.02 off 175m). Obviously hurt by the 120m limit and seems to be focussing on the shorter stuff so far this season.
Neil Brennan (120m) PB: N/A
Will be competitive but think the distance will eventually find him out. Best VAL run over 1600 was his win at Ballarat in 2011 (4.04 off 140m). Would need to produce something significantly better than that to get the chocolates here.
Travis Longmuir (120m) PB: 3.45.83
Runs the odd race and shows there is still plenty of decent running left in his legs. Ran 3rd at Avondale Heights two years ago off 125m in one of his more recent ‘pro’ outings but this race is a big step up on that.
Michael Low (120m) PB: N/A
Handicap back 10m. Like him for a big 3200m race but don’t think he possesses the necessary turn of foot required for a Mile off his current handicap.
David Spence (120m) PB: N/A
Won Rye off 125m and since then has continued to perform admirably with a host of top ten finishes. Will ensure it is a truly run race at the front but probably doesn’t have the speed to feature in the last lap this weekend.
Richard Polkinghorne (120m) PB: 3.47.79
Hard to believe you could be running off 120m with a PB of 3.47 and not have the best PB of those on the same handicap! Polkinghorne is starting to show some decent form and is one to watch between now and Easter. However, he’s handicap is back 15m which will prevent him from featuring here. Has previously run 2nd in this event on two occasions (2008 & 2009 4.03 off 120m).
Grant Penney (120m) PB: N/A
Handicap crunch of 20m and still a fair way off his best form. At his best would be competitive, having won the Burnie Mile a few years back off a 130m.
Andrew Soltys / Stefan Catalano (120m) PB: N/A
I hope they don’t run. Chasing points for the VAL distance series competition. It would be a shame for a great race to have any element of farce associated with it.
Kade Seaman (WH) PB: N/A
This year’s Burnie Mile winner. Only ran 4.03 off 135m but won by nearly five seconds so must be respected. You wouldn’t think he’d be crossing Bass Strait if he wasn’t in good form. Chances obviously depend on handicap; I guess he’ll receive something in the vicinity of 100m and will be very competitive off that.
What a race this is going to be. This field wouldn’t be out of place lining up in a Hedemann. An Olympic Gold Medalist, national and state titles, nine athletes with sub 3.55 PBs (plus Nolan and Patten who surely would if they ran more amateurs), a couple of past winners and more Stawell sashes than you can poke a stick at. Double Jeopardy is predicting this to be the race of the season, someone bring a video camera!

TOP TEN IN ORDER
H. Smithers (75m) 4.03.75
M. Marantelli (75m)
T. Mahon (65m)
A. Bacalja (115m)
T. Fawthorpe (35m)
K. Seaman (WH)
R. Kosgei (0m)
T. Lowry (80m)
D. Spence (120m)
J. Nolan (45m)

There will be a stack of winning chances at the bell and probably still a few chances at the top of the home straight.

Runners, don’t forget to save a little extra for those pesky last nine metres!

2 Re: Bendigo Formguide - Backmarkers Mile on Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:37 pm

MOB

avatar
ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Great summary DJ of what should be an awesome race.
Just an update:: Penney, Soltys and Catalano are all out of this event and in the fronties 1600.
Should be a cracker.

3 Re: Bendigo Formguide - Backmarkers Mile on Thu Mar 07, 2013 9:52 am

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
DizzyRunner shattered that he has been beaten to the 'post' by Double Jeopardy's highly detailed formguide. Somebody has clearly been trolling through databases to come up with all those stats.

Dizzy will tip the following for the race:

1. It will be won in 4.01 or quicker
2. Kosgei will not finish in the top8
3. There will be 3 Hippworth runners in the top 5
4. Marrantelli will intentionally finish 2nd to not affect his 3200m handicap as he attempts the cleansweep in the two miles at Stawell.
5. Winner to come from the front (75m-120m)

Can't wait to see what the bookies offer for this race.

Dizzy

4 Re: Bendigo Formguide - Backmarkers Mile on Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:40 am

Double Jeopardy


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Hmmm...

Giving myself a 10/20. High on content, average for accuracy.

Didn't show enough respect to the guys out the front who didn't really give the backies a chance to get in the race. Terrific front running display from Bacalja. Isn't he in some hot form.

DJ promises his Stawell formguide will be closer to the mark.

5 Re: Bendigo Formguide - Backmarkers Mile on Mon Mar 11, 2013 5:33 pm

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
dont get yourself down Dj. dizzyrunner only got 4 out of his 5 tips right. those 'foxing' pros always make someone look silly. no way would I have tipped Deane for 2nd.


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