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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200)

Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200)

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1 Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Tue Feb 26, 2013 4:01 pm

Mark Concerned


With only one more genuine form guide in two weeks time before Stawell, here’s how things are shaping up in my humble opinion. Will be interested to hear some thoughts from those more regular on the form assessment front than I.

Top three in finishing order.

550
Brennan, Anderson, P. Spence
The B man moving well, getting around nicely in some of the longer distances but seems far more comfortable over a distance like this. Second and third also shown proven form over the odd distance.

800
Harris, Deane, T. Kelly
I see a battle royale forming between the top 2 here. Harris moving very comfortably on a good mark while Movie Star Looks/Movie Star Name had a real dip at the 550 at Stonnington recently. Put it all on the line that night so must be looking elsewhere come Easter. Young Kelly having a return to form season, likely to be outclassed here however.

800 womens
M. Beer, daylight, daylight again
Back to her brilliant best.

1600 frontmarkers
Hipworth, Muir, Morris
Top 2 again showed what these accomplished runners are capable of (just in case we had forgotten) by almost holding out two of their younger team mates on Friday night at Stonnington. Feel a classic Hippo time trial will be on the cards to see who takes the running in this race and who settles back for the womens/vets. Morris gone to ground after early success this season but is still definitely thereabouts.

1600 womens/vets
Downes, Hipworth or Muir (time trial depending), Soltys
A brilliant Hippo top 3 here. Think this could be the year AD sits out the backmarkers mile and instead turns his focus to this one. May also have his team mates covered here. To my knowledge Downes possesses the fastest mile time we’ve seen so far this year in open company. Soltys to fill a place.

1600 backmarkers
Marantelli, C. Williamson, Nolan
Mara just missing the chocolates at Stonnington so looks the likely one to do the job at Central Park. Williamson not seen too regularly this season on the pro running circuit but in good form and a class runner. The Body in the same boat as his old training partner and never to be discounted.

3200 frontmarkers
Burrows, Nodan, Barton
The Buzz Man missed the race last year but with a nice handicap and form written all over him, he’s looking ominous here. Has to contend with last year’s winner who’s still right up there in the mix. Barton been patchy so far after a promising cross country season but knows all about Stawell and would never rule out this seasoned runner.

3200 backmarkers
Hartigan, Patten, P Spence
Always a hard race to predict with such quality everywhere you look. If Mottram is again off too tight a mark, the above may pose threats having showed some form already.

In summary, a pretty successful Easter for the powerful Hippo stable once again.

2 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Tue Feb 26, 2013 4:12 pm

Double Jeopardy


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Williamson is injured, dare say it is the reason you haven't sighted him much.

Think P Spence will struggle over 3200, brother Dave might go alright though tongue

3 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Tue Feb 26, 2013 4:15 pm

Mark Concerned


Spot on Double Jeapardy, that was supposed to a Spence of the D variety.

4 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Wed Feb 27, 2013 11:23 am

Double Jeopardy


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Decent set of tips MC, although I think you're looking a little too closely at the front of the pack. In my experience, the Stawell winner comes from those constantly cruising into 4th-8th place rather than those running flat out coming 2nd & 3rd.

Double Jeopardy will be waiting until after Bendigo (always the best formline) to release his distance tips.

5 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Wed Feb 27, 2013 11:58 am

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
DizzyRunner will be waiting til the release of marks before posting his Bendigo 1600m tips, but the Kenyan doesn't stand a chance and will only serve to help some locals lose money in the betting ring.

There are definitely some inter-staters missing from the above predictions.

6 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Wed Feb 27, 2013 12:47 pm

Pale ale


Good tipping MC. Being a 3200 runner I can always get the binoculars and scope out the other distance races.. I'd throw josh Mather into the mix for the 800. Has shown surges in performance and more trim this year obviously getting ready for the increase in distance.
Alex 'yeti' Bacalja has been lurking in the mile events and should be a big chance for the BM mile.

Also looking forward to seeing the form guide for Bendigo mile from DIzzee Runner

7 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Wed Feb 27, 2013 5:43 pm

runningfan


550 - Kelly will be hard to beat from that mark if he wants it. Noble Park results provide confusing evidence though with a very poor final. Also Matt Grant performed well on the Friday and poorly on the Sunday and Murphy went from ok on Fri to great on Sun. I don't if Kelly or Murphys closing speed can make them competitive over this distance if people move early.

800 - Wayne James will pop up with the goods after being lifted from this time last year and finishing 3rd at Stawell last year, Kelly, Josh Nolan, Sapac, Morris, Earle (SA) to be competitive.
Wayne James and T. Kelly can't be beaten from those marks now that Morris has won twice over this distance and will be penalised I assume. Nolans amazing form in Ballarat over this distance and competitive 3rd in Loxton has to put him in the mix too.


1600 frontmarkers
Hipworth - Stonnington shows he still has got it after a slow start to the season.

1600 womens/vets
Downes, Hipworth

1600 backmarkers
Marantelli to switch the Stonnington placings from Patten

3200 backmarkers - Too tough to predict without an entry list.

8 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:34 pm

vicinsider


Hi there Mark Concerned, looks like a massive stawell for the Hipworth stable given your tips. You make it look like there are no other distance stables running in the VAL,

Are you either a:

A. hippo runner trying to stoke up some carry on, on this forum to try and distract other stables off their taper

B. an ex hippo runner who may have had a falling out with hippo and trying to upset their apple cart as they appear to have really hit their straps ATM given the 5 wins at noble park.

C. An old school pro runner who loves this forum stuff, memories of slagging each other till dawn via Jim Bradley's forum

D. Maybe a real old school pro runner basking in the good old days of when the racing at stawell was fuelled by time trials and betting

E. ummhh I've lost my train of thought and getting sick of replying to your post!


Surely that old time trial stuff died years ago when bookies framed more markets on a lot of the distance events, as that would only be the reason why a stable would time trial wouldn't it? Otherwise it's best on the day I would hope, as the fancy may not deliver on the day?

Anyway as I said before I've had enough of trying to post stuff that will envoke someone carry on.

Just for the record, I reckon there is a nice small stable down the highway getting ready to explode and another stable which has been known to win distance races by the length of the straight firing up with 4 weeks to go.

Again, many tantalising races await, soon all will be answered!!!!!

9 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Thu Feb 28, 2013 9:28 am

Mark Concerned


Fair call vicinsider, maybe I have gone a little heavy on the number of sashes the Hippo stable will be taking home this year but it's an assessment of form rather than anything else. By sheer weight of numbers the guys will always have success at Stawell, no one can question that, and they do seem to be hitting their straps at the right time. I wouldn't put those wins tipped past the stable.

Do you think the time trial days are over for a stable like that? I would have thought it's the logical way to plan a race and make sure handicaps are not lost on sub-ceiling second or third placings. But you may have a better idea than me. If not a time trial then at least an open discussion and plan for the race? After Bendigo I would have thought there will be stables across the state scrambling to fit time trials in.

Finally, this is not a game of Who Am I, and my tips were designed to bring out a bit of healthy conversation about the races we've all be waiting for, not to try and point fingers or distract anyone.

10 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:47 am

vicinsider


Fair enough MC good call, your probably right with regards to the TT stuff, that's all a bit over my head, I'm not sold on the idea of a real gut buster so close to stawell as I'm sure a Hipworth trial would be given the large number of runners.

your comment about sub ceiling places is also something id never thought of, you are obviously a very smart pro runner so good luck if you are running at stawell.

Yeap, I went a bit hard on you before so sorry about that and this forum is the place for healthy discussion and tips in which I think everyone enjoys, like the form guides.

11 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:18 pm

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
Dizzy was interested in this Hippworth-centric view regarding prospects for this year's miles at Stawell, and so took a look at the last few year's of results. There have been 5 miles per year for the past 3 year = 15 winners.

In that time, the Hippworth Stable has won just 2 miles (L.Crowe: Restricted, M.Bateman:Wom/Vets). This is a far-cry from the domination suggested in the posts above and given the size of the squad, a pretty sad return. The release of start-lists in several weeks time will reveal more.

-Also during that time, Hippo runners in miles returned 6 2nd placings and 6 3rd placings suggesting peaking is a challenge for some runners in this group-

12 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:38 pm

Double Jeopardy


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
vicinsider,

That nearly sounds like an apology. An anonymous forum is no place for anything that even remotely resembles that sort of thing.
Please bear that in mind for future reference.

Everyone needs to take a deep breath, watch Bendigo and then wait for Double Jeopardy to release his Stawell distance tips.

In the mean time, if you must speculate, how about some tips for Bendigo or even St. Bernard's this weekend. Who will win the one and only 1k on the calendar?

13 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:43 pm

Double Jeopardy


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
DizzyRunner wrote:-Also during that time, Hippo runners in miles returned 6 2nd placings and 6 3rd placings suggesting peaking is a challenge for some runners in this group-


Dizz,
Who is to say that running 2nd / 3rd is a sign of a poorly timed peaked. Perhaps, these runners nailed their peak but simply ran into a better runner or someone with a better handicap. Each of those 2nds/3rds needs to be viewed in isolation to be able to make that call.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

14 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:47 pm

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
Double Jeopardy wrote:
DizzyRunner wrote:-Also during that time, Hippo runners in miles returned 6 2nd placings and 6 3rd placings suggesting peaking is a challenge for some runners in this group-

Dizz,
Who is to say that running 2nd / 3rd is a sign of a poorly timed peaked. Perhaps, these runners nailed their peak but simply ran into a better runner or someone with a better handicap. Each of those 2nds/3rds needs to be viewed in isolation to be able to make that call.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.


A wise man once told me that 2nd is just the first loser (he may have been wearing a Stawell sash at the time).

15 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Sat Mar 02, 2013 1:47 pm

Prophecy


Following Double Jeopardy’s Comments stating “the Stawell winner comes from those constantly cruising into 4th-8th place rather than those running flat out coming 2nd & 3rd. I developed a formula weighting the number of finals a runner makes, their position in the final (places 4-8 weighted more heavily) and their fastest time over the distance for the season. These were calculated over the bigger races of the season so far. The formula then gave a final rating score which was ranked. I have completed this over distances 400-3200m.

I am only going to post the top 5 over each distance in a non-specific order. Please note the data analysis mostly looks at Victorian runners only. So here are my top 5 over each distance. From looking at the end result there are a few surprises that come up…I do realise that some of these events are split into FM/BM events, however the splits for the marks are not known yet which is why I have just done a straight top 5.

400m:
Steve FABRIS
Brady LEHMANN
Justin TEMPLAR
James COLLIER
Shaun HARGREAVES

550:
Matt GRANT
Tom HECIMOVIC
Peter SPENCE
Cameron CLAYTON
Daniel LAWLOR

800m
Craig HARRIS
Daniel LAWLOR
Tom KELLY
Justin MURPHY
James DEANE

1600m
Mark HIPWORTH
David SPENCE
David HAIGH
Michael LOW
Alexander BACALJA
Gordon MUIR

3200m
Ian BURROWS
Alexander BACALJA
Andrew PATTEN
Michael LOW
David SPENCE


16 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Sat Mar 02, 2013 3:55 pm

DizzyRunner


ProTrack Star
ProTrack Star
Nice work Prophecy. Dizzy loves a good formula. Of course, in this case there is an obvious flaw with the 4th-8th idea. Some runners don't care about saving themselves for Stawell and have been trying all season but may have fallen short. An obvious example is M.Marrantelli who has 4 2nd placings in major 1600m races. I'm sure there are others.

Certainly, you would almost bet your life that the names you suggest will all be finalists/top5 prospects.

17 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:17 pm

Double Jeopardy


ProTrack A Grader
ProTrack A Grader
Isn't that the point Dizzy. Don't look at the guys flat out running 2nd for Stawell chances. They aren't going to "improve". The 4th to 8th guys will. That is why prophecy's formula focuses on 4th-8th.

Prophecy I'd remove anyone who has won over the distance (in open company) this season from your chances. So that takes out Deane & Kelly in the 800m and Spence in the 1600m.

18 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Sat Mar 02, 2013 9:14 pm

Observer


Mark Concerned wrote:With only one more genuine form guide in two weeks time before Stawell, here’s how things are shaping up in my humble opinion. Will be interested to hear some thoughts from those more regular on the form assessment front than I.

Top three in finishing order.

550
Brennan, Anderson, P. Spence
The B man moving well, getting around nicely in some of the longer distances but seems far more comfortable over a distance like this. Second and third also shown proven form over the odd distance.

800
Harris, Deane, T. Kelly
I see a battle royale forming between the top 2 here. Harris moving very comfortably on a good mark while Movie Star Looks/Movie Star Name had a real dip at the 550 at Stonnington recently. Put it all on the line that night so must be looking elsewhere come Easter. Young Kelly having a return to form season, likely to be outclassed here however.

800 womens
M. Beer, daylight, daylight again
Back to her brilliant best.

1600 frontmarkers
Hipworth, Muir, Morris
Top 2 again showed what these accomplished runners are capable of (just in case we had forgotten) by almost holding out two of their younger team mates on Friday night at Stonnington. Feel a classic Hippo time trial will be on the cards to see who takes the running in this race and who settles back for the womens/vets. Morris gone to ground after early success this season but is still definitely thereabouts.

1600 womens/vets
Downes, Hipworth or Muir (time trial depending), Soltys
A brilliant Hippo top 3 here. Think this could be the year AD sits out the backmarkers mile and instead turns his focus to this one. May also have his team mates covered here. To my knowledge Downes possesses the fastest mile time we’ve seen so far this year in open company. Soltys to fill a place.

1600 backmarkers
Marantelli, C. Williamson, Nolan
Mara just missing the chocolates at Stonnington so looks the likely one to do the job at Central Park. Williamson not seen too regularly this season on the pro running circuit but in good form and a class runner. The Body in the same boat as his old training partner and never to be discounted.

3200 frontmarkers
Burrows, Nodan, Barton
The Buzz Man missed the race last year but with a nice handicap and form written all over him, he’s looking ominous here. Has to contend with last year’s winner who’s still right up there in the mix. Barton been patchy so far after a promising cross country season but knows all about Stawell and would never rule out this seasoned runner.

3200 backmarkers
Hartigan, Patten, P Spence
Always a hard race to predict with such quality everywhere you look. If Mottram is again off too tight a mark, the above may pose threats having showed some form already.

In summary, a pretty successful Easter for the powerful Hippo stable once again.

I guess we'll see on the Saturday if Downesy lines up in the Backies. Still think he's a show. Will have less than previous years, but now knows that winning feeling of a mile.

19 Re: Stawell Distance Tips (550-3200) on Sat Mar 02, 2013 11:51 pm

runningfan


I find it hard to put names forward i feel accurate with when I think 3 of the top 4 at stawell 800m last year all deserved to be on much tougher marks than they were.

Don't think we can go too far part Kelly or Wayne James again as fronties that'll be competitive.

Id love to see Murphy in the 800m (unlikely) get up for a win as you don't get to see many his age running off tough marks like his. What a gun!

Downes ran 4.19 at AV State 1500m so has gotta be able to produce 4.05 off his mark at Stawell after watching his 'comfortable trot' at Stonnington.

I think Patten and Williamson will be a shower the two mile.

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