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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Bendigo Black Opal summary

Bendigo Black Opal summary

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1 Bendigo Black Opal summary on Tue Mar 06, 2012 7:32 am

Ribera

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Hey Trackstar, a bit busy at the moment so this is the best I can do. Smoke'n'mirroz has also been a bit busy of late with many race day commitments but may be able to review every runner shortly?

The Bendigo 400m was always regarded as a big time event, generally 2nd behind Stawell, with $2000 first prize in the late 90's. The honour roll up to 2001 included;
1998 - Tim Mason (32m) 44.39
1999 - David Haigh (26m) 45.44
2000 - Anthony Grima (26m) 45.77

In 2001 the event was named the Bendigo Black Opal with an advertised total prize pool of around $20,000 (8 or 10 thousand for first plus a black opal worth $6000).

2011 – Brendan Matthews (16m) 46.07
2010 – Adam Coote (31m) 48.05 (the wet year) - was run out of the 400m heats at Maryborough, Daylesford and Keilor.
2009 – Ashley Grant (26m) - 4th Keilor off 25m.
2008 – Glenn Stephens (34m) 45.59 - 2nd at Burramine the week before.
2007 – Nick Magree (31m) 45.40 – 3rd Ballarat backmarkers after time up in heats.
2006 – Tommy Neim (32m) 44.76 - 4th at Keilor.
2005 – Craig Mair (40m) 45.89
2004 – Justin O'Brien (26m) - 4th at Keilor. Got a 2m lift for Bendigo.
2003 – Duncan Tippins (12m) - 2nd in the Camden classic off 15m.
2002 – Robert Halge (40m) - In lead up races he fell over in the straight in the Sandringham 400m in early Feb then ran 2nd in the Keilor 400m novice off 26m.
2001 – Howard – 1st Wangaratta

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Out of the 11 Opal winners, 5 of the last 6 were young and/or early in their career. Coote, Magree, Neim and Halge were all young and had 31m or more. Grant also young had come 3rd the year before when overweight.
Only 1 veteran has won the 11 runnings (Stephens).
The last 10 winners did not record a 400m win in that current season.
12 of last 14 at Bendigo were off 26m or more.

So for 2012 we are looking for someone on 26m or more but not more than 34m. (With the field back 9-10m the winner will be between 16m and 25m).
Early in career.
No 400m wins for season.
In form making final in one or more of the big recent 400’s. Avondale Heights, Ballarat, Camden or Keilor. Can also look at Ringwood and Albury but generally it is someone who has surfaced in the last 4-6 weeks.

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2 Re: Bendigo Black Opal summary on Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:25 am

Smoke n Mirrorz


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Smoke n Mirrorz should have something online by Thursday night.

3 Re: Bendigo Black Opal summary on Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:52 am

Phantom

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Based on Ribera's theory the winner will be Rory Nunn. Has 19, is about 19 and has finished 2nd at Ballarat and 3rd at Keilor this season.

4 Re: Bendigo Black Opal summary on Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:14 am

Ribera

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Based on the above stats I have narrowed it down to 6.
Matt Grant – has made the last 7 400m finals including Albury, Avondale Heights, Ballarat, Keilor.
Hayes-Hornibrook – In everything and showed good speed in the Noble Park 300m.
Keenan – Making all the 400 finals. 3rd Ballarat. 2nd Keilor.
Nunn – Emerged at Rye. Recently 2nd Ballarat. 3rd Keilor.
Burnett – In ballarat 400m final. Showed good speed at St Bernards 300m. Won Maryborough novice 400m
Camille – made Avondale 400m final and St Bernards 300m final. 2nd in Ballarat 120m restricted which is good speed for this.

Middle distance runners do not win as you must have some raw speed.
That counts out Grant as no early or cruising speed. Can final though.
Nunn has not shown enough raw speed but can final.
Camille has the raw speed but maybe a bit in-experienced. He is with Muhlhan so can bob up from nowhere.
Keenan, Hayes-Hornibrook, Burnett all middle distance runners but with good 300m speed. So we have to pick one of these.
Burnett impressed me at St Bernards but not since.
Keenan has good cruising speed as was shown in Warragul 300m win. I suspect he will be thereabouts but cannot find that extra bit to win.
Hayes-Hornibrook is left. Is very experienced having made Stawell backmarkers 400m finals. May not have 120m gift speed but has very high 200-300m cruising speed.

Hayes-Hornibrook from Kennan and Grant.

5 Re: Bendigo Black Opal summary on Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:52 am

Trackstar

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Great work Ribera!

I think Keenan was placed in the Camden Classic in SA, so he's already been up there in a 400m classic this year. I agree he lacks the raw speed that is needed in the Opal. Do like the idea of being from scratch. Can't see anyone running under 47.5 which gives the backmarkers a huge chance. One of the Hargreaves looks the one for mine.

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