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PROTRACK » GENERAL » Whyalla not the best guide to the Bay Sheffield

Whyalla not the best guide to the Bay Sheffield

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youngy

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Earlier in the week I asked a couple of athletes - "Of the 30 Whyalla Gift finalists in the previous 5 years (prior to last Saturday), how many had made the Bay Sheffield final?"

One estimate was 10, the other was 15.

Fairly wide of the mark, and I'm sure they are not alone in thinking that multiple Whyalla Gift finalists, each year make a Bay Sheffield final. I'd be surprised if anyone could correctly guess the answer without checking. Few would have gone for a number less than say, eight.

The stats show that it is not that easy.

In the five seasons since the Whyalla Gift has been back on the SAAL calendar on its November date - of the 30 athletes who have made the Whyalla Gift Final (6 athletes per each of the five years) only five (16.7%) of the 30 have gone on to make the Bay Sheffield Final.

One per year.
History says that only one of the Whyalla Gift finalists has a chance of making the Bay Sheffield final as there has not been more than one from any given year.

Ryan Hancock has done it twice - 2006 & 2008, Peter Dudkiewicz in 2007, Alex Saliu in 2009 and David Gross in 2010.

Ryan Hancock is the only Whyalla Gift finalist to go on to be placed in a Bay Sheffield final. Ryan was 5th in the 2008 Whyalla Gift before finishing 3rd in the Bay Sheffield, 6 weeks later.

NO Whyalla Gift winner has gone on to make the Bay Sheffield final let alone be placed in one.

The runner-up in the Whyalla Gift has a better record with two going on to make the Bay Sheffield final - Peter Dudkiewicz in 2007 and Alex Saliu in 2009.

Mt Gambier has a slightly better record over the last five years with six Mt Gambier finalists progressing to the Bay Sheffield final. Those six were in the years 2006 to 2009 as there was no-one from the Mt Gambier final in the Bay Sheffield final in 2010.




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Betina


I was very interested to read your article. They are fascinating stats.

I wondered if your comments applied to the womens race. As I thought back to last year and came up with:

Whyalla women's 120m final:
1.Ali Trewartha
2.Tam Dartnall
3.Andrea Di Paolo
4.Amy Robb
5.Megan Letton
6.Zoe Steele

Of the above names, the following made the final

Bay Sheffield Women's Final:
1. Tam Dartnall
2. Ali Trewartha
4. Amy Rrobb
6. Andrea Di Paolo


4 of the 6 Whyalla finalists made the bay final. I find the difference between the mens odds from Whyalla to Bay and the women's interesting.

youngy

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The women's data is significantly different due to the smaller population of athletes (especially those that are competitive) in the event which means the women have an easier task of making multiple 'major' finals.

The other factor which distorts the numbers is that interstate athletes are not as prevalent in the womens' finals as those in the Open gifts which means a greater number of SA women make the Bay Sheffield women's final each year.

Of the last seven open Bay Sheffields, there's been 43 finalists (there were seven in the 2004 final).

SA: 22
Interstate: 21

So nearly 50% of the finalists have been interstaters. Which means on average, only three SA athletes make the Bay Sheffield final each year.

I do not keep the women stats like I do for open gifts, but it's fair to say a lot more local athletes make up the final field in the Women's 120m at the Bay Sheffield.


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